Skip to comments.House Ratings Changes: GOP Fortunes Improve in Four Districts
Posted on 05/22/2018 9:14:59 AM PDT by MaxistheBest
After a rough start to year, House Republicans are suddenly feeling less pessimistic about their fall prospects. At the "macro" level, robust economic data and positive developments on the Korean peninsula have helped lift President Trump's approval rating to 42 percent , his best mark in over a year. Concurrently, Democrats' lead over Republicans on FiveThirtyEight's generic congressional ballot average has ebbed from 12 points in January to just five points today.
Republicans have also received small doses of good news at the "micro," race-by-race level. After a winter dominated by a new, unfriendly map in Pennsylvania and a special election loss, May has been kinder to the GOP: Democrats have had sub-optimal primary outcomes in Pennsylvania's 1st CD and Nebraska's 2nd CD, with more possible. And since Speaker Paul Ryan announced his exit on April 11, 40 days have passed without a GOP retirement.
CA-39: OPEN (Royce) | Lean D to Toss Up CA-49: OPEN (Issa) | Lean D to Toss Up NE-02: Bacon | Toss Up to Lean R SC-05: Norman | Likely R to Solid R
(Excerpt) Read more at cookpolitical.com ...
Two things on the Cook Report:
He refuses to give full weight to the Rasmussen Report, the most accurate polling the last 3 cycles
A week before the 2016 election, the Cook Report had Clinton winning 322-209
also the MSM/polling complex would have you believe that President Trump is the most unpopular President in history.....scroll down and look at the "How Trump compares with past presidents"
President Trump has coattails
Charley Cook has never been right. I stick with my predictions made months ago. the Republicans will pick up six to twelve Senate seats and they will pick up twelve to twenty house seats. If Obama, Clinton, Kerry, Comey, clapper, Brennan, etc., gets tied to the Trump, Mueller, DOJ, FBI farce....Democrat Party will just about self-destruct.
We had some great threads on Charlie Cook in 2016.
He humiliated himself all year long.
So Cook thinks at least 1 Republican will make it into top 2 in both California districts?
This is like following baseball in June and July.
I will pay attention in September when most primary have decided.
Cook is a fat democratic hack. Ignore him.
Hope you are right.
We simply dont know at this point what the issues will be that decide the election.
But we do know this, in general, when things are going well or perceived as going well the American voter is loathe, even scared, to vote for a party that threatens to upheave the status quo.
The party of chaos and upheaval is the democrat party.
And I believe you are a fool if you still believethe Democrats’ message is a winning one. They have no message but hate Trump raise taxes erase our borders and take our guns.Reuters is right Republicans are + 6 with adults.
Well it is about time he updates Senate predictions. Last updated April 9th.
I don’t believe one word that comes from Charlie Cook.
Like Larry Sabato, he is just a DNC propagandist.
The lesson of the 2018 elections is going to be that the political class didn’t learn the lesson of the 2016 election.
We have two things working against each other.
One, no question that historically the party in power loses seats in an off-year election.
Two, the midterm voter tends to be older, better informed, and more motivated.
Forget the rosy pictures. The only day that counts is Election Day.
When that day comes, VOTE!!!
“He refuses to give full weight to the Rasmussen Report, the most accurate polling the last 3 cycles”
Charley Cook has never been right.
But, but...they just announced a new, fresh idea which should really make them popular:
“Drain the SWAMP”! :÷)!
Say hello to Gov. Guadagno and Senator Moore.
From a competitor, but it appears his thoughts about November are beginning to parallel yours.
So, will the democrats listen to the real world, or will they blindly follow the polls that predict only what they want to hear again this November?
There are 435 reasons to propagandize against repubbies: Create momentum against Trump, brace up never-Trump repubbies who are wavering or who might support Trump, draw down enthusiasm for pro-Trump conservatives who need to be discouraged, encourage pro-Hillary and pro-Sanders left-overs who are now discouraged, create racism and strife in the homosexual and black communities who are now getting jobs ,,,, But, do not the democrats need to know the truth anyway?
The realistic range for Republicans in the Senate in the 2018 election is from a net loss of 2 seats (lose Arizona and Nevada, gain nothing) to a net gain of 10 (hold all R seats and gain all 10 viable seats).
The Democrats have to defend 25 states and the R's only 8. Six R's are safe (MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY) and 15 of the 25 Rats are safe.
The likeliest pickups are IN, MO, MT and ND, though the Missouri GOP is an absolute joke, led by an idiot RINO governor, and they are shooting themselves in the foot at every turn. ND is hardly a lock for a pickup and IN/MT are no slam dunks either.
The "tossups" (to put the best possible spin on it) are FL, MI, OH, PA, WI, WV -- all Trump states in 2016, some very narrowly. WV should have been a somewhat easy gain but not if Mr. Sore Loser Jailbird gets on the ballot as a third-party spoiler to save Manchin.
Wisconsin is a tossup-in-name-only at the moment (D incumbent clearly favored, but as long as we're dreaming here...). All of the other tossups are uphill battles against incumbents. Dimwitted, overly-liberal, do-nothing incumbents (Casey, Brown & Stabenow in particular) to be sure, but they got elected before and they can damn sure do it again. Whoever is charge of the NRSC better be ready to fight to get the best nominees wherever primaries have not yet happened, and then spend big time in the general to get out the vote.
Electionbettingodds still put Democrats 60-40 to taking the House. FWIW, they were painfully wrong in 2016.
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