The economist Peter Zeihen explains in this video why we are seeing the middle east blowing up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feU7HT0x_qU
North America is now energy independent, and will soon loose all interest what happens in the middle east. The only thing to keep us in the middle east is our alliance with Japan. ie protect Japan’s oil supply.
It also explains why the Saudi’s are playing nice. If we leave the middle east, Iran and the Saudi’s are be going to war....
It also explains why the Russians are so aggressive. Russia’s population is aging quickly, and the Russian army could shrink by 1/2 in the next 5 to 10 years.
It actually makes more sense, by those numbers, to wait it out and let Russia get bogged down with the Moslem factions.