Posted on 03/05/2018 8:26:55 PM PST by Republican Wildcat
That’s funny, I saw other polls having Saccone with a lead outside the MOE not more than a week ago. Somehow, Trump’s tariffs are unpopular in that region to result in such a flip.
I have to wonder. Is there really ever going to be a poll again that shows a Republican winning anything?
Trump won the district 58% to 39% in 2016,
and Mitt Romney fared equally well in 2012 with 58% of the vote to 41% for President Obama.
Trump currently has a 47% job approval in the district with 43% disapproving, despite 46% of the district being registered Democrat.
Similarly, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi only has a 20% approval rate, with 57% disapproving.
The district itself is heavily republican for western p it is mostly more white collar neighborhoods. Democrats are motivated and aregoing to show up. There is no doubt they have enthusiasm.. the Rs have been very acrive in this race. Canvassing ad buys etc.
Lamb may pull it off if republicans don’t show up.
Should Lamb win it won’t be because the Rs didn’t fight. It will be because their message didn’t motivate.
And for the record I live in this district.
Most of saccones ads have been tying lamb to Pelosi...along with standard R messaging. Lower taxes, stronger defense.. etc. they have attacked Lamb with pelosi’s crumbs comments as well.
But what they have not done effectively in my mind is tie saccone to Trump. His name is not mentioned often by either candidate and I understand why Lamb doesn’t say it but the pro saccone ads not explicitly stating saccone will stand with Trumps MAGA agenda and is needed to continue it has not been part of any advertising I have seen.
I think this is a big mistake, you have to get the MAGA voters engaged and I don’t think saccones and the R PAC messaging is going to do that.
We will see soon, but if Lamb wins it won’t be because Rs didn’t fight it will be because their messaging did not motivate turnout.
The poll only used landlines
That skews the respondents to older Democrats who are home.
They missed people that are working, not home or do not have a landline.
The poll may be correct but there is a reason to doubt it
Ask and ye shall receive. They hid it here. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ECP_3.4.18_PA_USC_18.xls
This is the Clinton skew method !!!
Only 79 were high school educated or less.
137 had some college
143 (30%) college grads.
116 with post docs. 24%
Wow. That is a lot of educated folks !!!
83 of their poll takers were conducted online instead of by phone. Hmmm
There is the other skew.
If anyone doesn’t know by now that both Emerson and CBS News are going to produce polls like Hillary up 10 in Florida and Hillary up 8 in Ohio, then it’s time to start paying attention.
Bottom line....Republicans, Conservatives, Independents, Blue Dog Democrats, Reagan Democrats, Coal Miners, Steel Workers, Blue Collar Workers, First Responders, Military Folks...it’s quite simple, TURNOUT and vote Republican (Saccone) on Election Day, Tuesday, March 13, 2018.
And...I believe POTUS, Trump will be making a last minute campaign stop in the 18th CD next week. Make sure you give our great POTUS the massive welcome and approval he deserves. POTUS, Trump is for one thing and one thing only...”ALL OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE”, POTUS, Trump keeps and delivers on his campaign promises...period. MAGA, Trumpie!!!
500 voters is more than enough for most liberal leaning pollsters to get the results they want.
Yep. I read Salena Rito. She did an article about Lamb last year. He’s not the abnormal far left kook that party is known to trot out. He is a contender and we have a challenge here. Are they using the redrawn maps? What parts of the old “Murtha” territory does that include? I’m in Eastern Pa. But traveled a bit to Johnstown back in the Murtha days.
I live in the district, and this weekend three Millennials knocked on my door stumping for Lamb. I politely told them to take a hike. But I wonder how many others gave them a good reception?
I see Lamb signs everywhere; some Saccone but the Lamb signs really do dominate where I live.
Just checked out the poll’s methodology. Yup, it’s a crock. Follow the link in the article to see for yourselves.
Trump will be in Pittsburgh on Saturday evening for a rally. I have tickets to go and the wife and I may go down.
Again as I said, I live in the district. The republican SHOULD win, but the democrats are insanely motivated... if republicans are complacent and don’t show up Lamb could win it.
The vote will be far closer than it should be.
Any poll of allegheny county as a whole is MEANINGLESS for this district. As it is not the entire county.
Lamb is running as a conservative by everyone who isn’t politically ignorant know damn well he will vote with Pelosi when they need the vote regardless of what he says.
If Saccone loses it won’t be because the Republicans are complacent in their Efforts. They clearly are fighting hard... but I do believe the messaging may not be what is needed to get the I and D MAGA voters to turn out...
If Lamb pulls this off it better wake the establishment up that they need to embrace MAGA and vocalize their unequivocal support for it and Trump as the leader of it.
I don’t care what any poll says. This election will win or lose on turnout.
There is no doubt in my mind most traditional and left wing democrats will crawl over glass to vote. Republicans need to make sure R voters show up and that I and democratic MAGA voters show up to ensure the win.
I have my personal concerns that the messaging by the Republican Party and pacs is not what it should be to ensure those voters come to the polls.
This election will be far closer than it should be, and if those MAGA voters don’t show up... Lamb could win and messaging will be why
This is my district, PA-18 has shown a flip to the dems in the past, approximately 15 years ago the Democrats took a solid state seat after some confusion in the local Republican party involving a bitter Republican primary fight to oust a wishy washy Republican incumbent, but when the Democratic winner resigned after two terms to go into private business, the Republicans took that seat back and the two state seats for this suburban area have been solidly Republican for some years.
The reason the GOP is doing so poorly, so far, in my opinion is that the voters are fed up with the GOP not supporting the President.
The GOPe has got to go! They are just part of the DC UniParty and couldn’t care less about their constituents!
Some of what is going on here:
-Some of what’s helping Conor Lamb is name recognition. People named Lamb have held political office here for three or four generations, and they are personally popular. Sadly that is often enough to win. Bob Casey largely got elected by letting old ladies think that he was his father, the late Governor.
-Lamb’s TV ads are very astute. He just stands there and looks handsome while an announcer talks about his Marine service and differences with “Washington Democrat Leadership”. Saccone meanwhile looks like a walrus in his ads. Plus he is coming from the PA Legislature, which is not a paragon of virtue. (Saccone’s radio ads on the other hand are devastating!)
-There is a lot of enthusiasm fatigue amongst Republicans here after Tim Murphy so badly mislead them on very basic issues (like being Pro Life) for decades. I think there is a lack of enthusiasm to put a supreme push behind another Pubbie who may or may not turn out to be the same.
-Democrats on the other hand (particularly union people) are HIGHLY charged-up and motivated behind Lamb.
I think Trump needs to get up here and campaign for Saccone and they need to start hitting Lamb HARD with charges that he’ll be voting for abortion and gun control once he’s in that seat.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.