Ping!
Any number of times I have read “Trump should ( Fill in bold, decisive action). The problem with taking almost any bold action is, the moment you do the ground shifts. New and unexpected alliances form. Expected responses fail to materialize. You suddenly have a bigger problem, except now you are in it. This is happening now to Turkey.
The Kurds have survived under Assad’s rule. Why overthrow him?
Typical mideast politics. Help your enemy to fight a bigger enemy.
The Syrian Regime leaving the supply route open into Afrin, likely dooms the Turkish takeover attempt, unless Turkey mobilizes a much larger effort.
There are many variables, and many will die in the effort, but without an effective blockade to starve out the Kurds in Afrin, Turkey has not shown the combat effectiveness to conquer them.
Turkey is suffering serious International blowback from its invasion of its neighbor (forget about EU membership this round), and its use of jihadi militias (including many former ISIS fighters), who are committing atrocities and war crimes. I would guess that they are seriously re-assessing their strategy in Afrin right now.
In a fair and monitored election it is, IMO, almost certain that Assad would be re-elected as the leader of Syria.
We need to butt OUT.
Of whom?
What is our position on reconstituting the great pre-1914 empires?
For 800 years Johnny Turk did a pretty good job sorting out the Sunni Arabs. If he wants the job again, I say, go for it.
Assad knows one thing, clearly, no matter what Turkey, the Mullahs in Tehran and Russia say to each other. Assad knows that Turkey was among the big time backers of the most Islamist militias in the so-called “Syrian opposition” in the civil war against him. Assad knows that Erdogan was in league with the Saudis, some of the Gulf States and the intelligence deep state in the west seeking “regime change” against him. He knows if Erdogan could he would permanently annex a northern part of Syria, whereas he, Assad, could make a “federal” deal with the Syrian Kurds.
The answer is that the Syrian government is definitely a long-term foe, but currently a temporary ally, in much the same way that Russia was a temporary ally of the US during WWII, but a long-term foe the way it is today.
Ultimately, just as ISIS allied with al Qaeda against Assad, Assad allied with ISIS against al Qaeda and with al Qaeda against ISIS in different localities, relationships among the players will remain just as fluid as those between various powers jostling for land and population. France was Britain’s bitter enemy for the better part of a thousand years, before war against an expanding Russia had them fighting shoulder to shoulder as allies.