Posted on 12/13/2017 12:25:07 PM PST by Kaslin
A new national survey conducted by Marist College's polling operation shows that a 52 percent majority of US voters believe the Republican tax reform proposal will negatively impact their personal financial situation. Less than one-in-three respondents think they'll benefit. This overwhelmingly inaccurate perception represents the fruit of Democrats' media-aided labor over recent weeks, as they've flooded the national debate with factually false assertions and ludicrous hysteria. The truth, as we've relayed on numerous occasions, is that nonpartisan analyses of the plan have concluded that on average, every income group will receive a tax cut -- including, if not especially, the middle class. I have not shied away from conceding potential negative outcomes for certain taxpayers, nor have I dismissed deficit-related concerns; the fact remains, however, that the exceedingly lopsided majority of taxpayers will see their tax burdens lowered and after-tax incomes rise under the Republican bill. The green dots below represent middle class households currently taking the standard deduction that will see a tax reduction (the red dots are the very rare exceptions):
NYT editors, today: GOP tax reform doesn't help the middle class.
NYT news analysis, yesterday: Virtually every single middle-income taxpayer who takes the standard deduction (70%! of filers) will get a tax cut, as will a substantial majority of those who itemize. pic.twitter.com/PuOhZcXzLY— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 29, 2017
Roughly 70 percent of filers already take the standard deduction (a number expected to expand), which is set to approximately double under the legislation. Virtually every single one of these people would emerge as net winners. And according to a New York Times analysis, a substantial majority of middle income filers who itemize (rather than taking the standard deduction) would also see their tax bill decrease. As we explained yesterday, most of the scare-mongering talking points employed by Democrats to achieve the polling results mentioned above -- if not entirely made up -- are rooted in cherry-picked information and misrepresentation. Only a small sliver of taxpayers (in the ballpark of ten percent) might expect to see their tax bill rise due to tax reform, and those are disproportionately wealthier itemizers who live in high-tax blue states. Here's the political question Republicans need to ask themselves: Will real facts and empirical reality regain the high ground once Americans actually, you know, file their post-reform taxes? If so, the vast majority of taxpayers will realize that Democrats were lying to them. Conservative policy wonk and activist Phil Kerpen is urging people to calculate their own tax scenario using this online tool:
A political strategy completely at odds with reality seems unlikely to end well. Are you going to believe Dems/media or your lying paycheck? https://t.co/2L1M1U05OH— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) December 12, 2017
The nonpartisan Tax Foundation also ran the numbers on how a wide array of American families would fare under reform, concluding that every household they profiled came out ahead:
Nonpartisan Tax Foundation analysis of Senate tax bill: "Our results indicate a reduction in tax liability for every scenario we modeled, with some of the largest cuts accruing to moderate-income families with children." Lower taxes & higher post-tax income across the board... pic.twitter.com/SPoRFBAYfF— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 28, 2017
The follow-up question for Republicans is, even if a massive supermajority of Americans do experience tax relief, will the media and Democrats try to drown out those stories by showcasing individual negative cases? The GOP should count on it, and develop an aggressive messaging strategy to highlight the countless winners under reform, constantly beating the drum about how Democrats' (literally) apocalyptic predictions were embarrassingly wrong. Unlike Obamacare, which spat out significantly more losers than winners after everyone was promised utopia, many, many more taxpayers will benefit from the Republican plan than will feel a setback -- to say nothing of independent projections of faster economic growth and the creation of nearly one million new full-time jobs. Meanwhile, here's a late-breaking detail about the compromise framework that has reportedly been reached ahead of the now-ongoing conference committee's work:
GOP final tax bill details, per two sources briefed:
* 21% corporate rate
* 37% top individual rate
* 20% pass-through deduction
* $750k for mortgage interest— Ylan Q. Mui (@ylanmui) December 12, 2017
The highest tax bracket will receive a small rate cut after all (the House bill didn't include a rate cut at the top), and the corporate tax cut was scaled back by one percentage point. Is the revenue attached to that slight uptick in the proposed corporate rate being put to the best use, policy-wise or politically? Ramesh Ponnuru says no, and I'm inclined to agree (as is Marco Rubio, incidentally):
So that 20% corporate tax rate turned out not be the non-negotiable line in the sand we were told it was. https://t.co/L43jjkyNsl— Ramesh Ponnuru (@RameshPonnuru) December 12, 2017
I'll leave you with a strong editorial in favor of reform, which posits that once tax reform is implemented and Americans see the results, liberal myths "will be demolished by reality." Also, read this report about economic bullishness among American manufacturers in anticipation of pro-growth reform. Quote: "63 percent of [manufacturing] CEOs said business tax reform would encourage capital spending and more than half said they would expand their businesses."
Tax reform for the popular vote:-)
I can testify, with certainty, my taxes will go up substantially.
I’ve used all the tools people here have posted. And I’ve run my own numbers.
My taxes go up.
Anyone who says they won’t is either, at best disingenuous, or at worst, a liar.
Democrat voters like to be lied to. How else to explain elected democrats’ continued re-election despite their record of evil lies and enslavement efforts toward we the people?
The current GOP leadership has done a terrible job selling anything to the voters of this country. Paul Ryan couldn’t sell a bottle of cold water to a thirsty man in the middle of the Sahara Desert.
And they’re so stupid that they will think taxes have gone up, even if they go down.
It raises our taxes and it raises our daughter’s taxes. No propaganda here.
“Only a small sliver of taxpayers (in the ballpark of ten percent) might expect to see their tax bill rise due to tax reform, and those are disproportionately wealthier itemizers who live in high-tax blue states. “
How much is 10% of 150+ million filers?
Over 15 million people will see their taxes go up.
But that’s ok because they are in CA, right?
Whatever the merits of this bill - or any other - Republicans just are lousy at messaging.
We can’t ‘sell things to the public’ like liberals do because 99% of newspapers, magazines, and TV content (news and entertainment) are liberal.
Republicans are cutting taxes for illegal immigrants. You’ve got to give them that.
The majority of sheeple are convinced that when the taxes of “the rich” are cut, everybody else’s taxes go up, and vice versa.
I.e., the government schools are NOT FAILING. They are SUCCEEDING at the task for which they were designed from the beginning: turning out morons.
Taxes will go up for some people, especially in high-tax states.
#NoBull
When is 10% a sliver? That’s more like a chunk.
“Republicans are cutting taxes for illegal immigrants. You’ve got to give them that.”
While at the same time raising taxes on this lifelong Republican that placed his very first vote for Ronald Reagan in the 1976 Republican primary.
A grave injustice.
In the ballpark of 10% could very well be 14%.
Yep. When retirees in high property tax states (CA, NY, TX, FL, etc.) see their federal tax bills rise in 2018, they are going to take that anger into the voting booths in 2020. Good luck GOP and Trump.
Lots of idiots on FR, buying into the ...
Liberal Media BS
Liberal DNC BS
GOPe NeverTrumper BS
...I particular get amusement from the “my taxes are going up”, even though we don’t have a final Bill.
Yup. They should have done as they claimed they could do, lower tax rates for everyone and make the tax return small & simple enough to fit on a postcard (I’d settle for a single 8 1/2 x 11 page).
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