Posted on 10/28/2017 5:44:32 PM PDT by Pinkbell
NEWPORT NEWS, Va. (WSET) - The latest poll from Christopher Newport University has Democratic candidate Ralph Northam in the lead to be Virginia's next governor.
The poll from the Wason Center for Public Policy shows Northam broke the 50 percent mark and extended his lead over Republican candidate Ed Gillespie.
The poll shows Northam is the choice for 50 percent of likely voters surveyed, while Gillespie is the choice of 43 percent.
According to the poll, Libertarian Cliff Hyra polled at 3 percent with 4 percent undecided.
(snip)
The poll shows Northam is the choice for 50 percent of likely voters surveyed, while Gillespie is the choice of 43 percent.
According to the poll, Libertarian Cliff Hyra polled at 3 percent with 4 percent undecided.
Northam has led Gillespie throughout the Wason Center’s tracking series.
In the benchmark poll, released September 25, Northam’s lead stood at 6 percent (47 percent to 41 percent).
It grew to 7% (49 percent to 42 percent) in the first tracking poll, released October 9, then shrank to 4 percent in the second tracking poll, released Oct. 17.
“As we approach Election Day and the structure of the likely electorate becomes clearer, the advantage appears to be opening up for the Democratic ticket,” said Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center. “We’re also seeing mounting evidence of a Trump Effect at the top of the ticket.”
The poll finds support in northern Virginia, the Richmond area, and Hampton Roads gives Northam widespread strength in the commonwealth's most populous regions.
It shows voters in more rural southwest and southside Virginia favor Gillespie.
According to the findings, Northam's demographic support is broad, as he leads among men and women, young and old, and African-Americans.
It shows Gillespie leads among white voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at wset.com ...
Seeking a second term as attorney general, incumbent Democrat Mark Herring leads John Adams, 49 percent to 44 percent.
I know there was another poll posted here on FR that showed Gillespie with the lead. I figure that it's Virginia, so a Democrat will probably win.
polls are all over the place in this race.
A 15 point spread between the two polls.
Unless NOVA stay home, the Democrats win.
TRUE. But I learned not to trust polls in 2016.
especially when they favor Democrats.
Ed Gillespie will do well in southern and western VA. But NOVA will put Ralph Northam over the top.
Demographics have put an end to once Red State VA.
“Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Public Policy”
Internationally respected polling outfit with decades of experience and a long history of accurate polling predictions, right?
Gillespie won’t lose by 7.. NOVA turnout will be too depressed for that, but I just have a hard time thinking a GOPe/McConell guy is going to fire up the MAGA base to show up in big enough numbers to push Gillespie over the type.
Time will tell, I hope I am wrong but my gut tells me the D wins but by no more than 3 points
I’ll be happy to eat crow, but I just don’t see R taking Va without the MAGA voters motivated and engaged and don’t see Gillespie doing that.
Yeah, someone must be wrong. I just figure that Virginia will probably vote for another Democrat for governor.
I agree with you - its gonna be close and Ed Gillespie simply isn’t Donald Trump. D wins by 3.
How much of the 50% is the illegal alien vote?
I am not thrilled, but I’ll be voting for sure. count on it.
Demographics that were changed by the George W. Bush administration.
Virginia was not like this before that.
Been around since 2007. Bitecofer is assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University where she teaches classes on political behavior, campaigns, elections, and political analysis. In her position with the Wason Center she conducts survey research on public policy issues and election campaigns. She has been featured in many media outlets such as The Washington Post, Huffington Post, NPR, and she is a regular contributor on CBC Radio. Her book, The Unprecedented 2016 Presidential Election (Palgrave McMillan) releases in October 2017
Reliable republican voters will hold their noses and vote for him.. but the MAGA voters Trump brought in are not simply those voters. They are voters who had not voted recently and many are not Even registered republicans
I don’t see R winning VA without bringing those new voters in, and I just don’t see someone like Gillespie firing them up.
Wait a minute....a few days ago they had Gillespie up by the same amount. If he loses, it’s the revenge of the parasites who live in NOVA.
Isn’t Trump going to rally for him? Shouldn’t that make a big difference?
The Democrat always wins with 90% of the vote for the Republican. That last 10% puts the Democrat over.
I sure hope Trump goes to Virginia to rally for Ed Gillespie. Time is short, though, Trump leaves for the Pacific Rim on November 3, 2017. Trump, you got to be in Virginia on November 2, 2017....do it!!!
I believe POTUS will be already on his Asian trip by this time next week, days before Virginia’s election day.
Doubt he will have time to help with a rally.
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