Posted on 10/12/2017 7:19:47 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
P!
The perception of INSANITY arguably enhances deterrance.
I’m completely serious: I would advise DJT to periodically DO crazy stuff while afterward appearing to TRY to cover it up.
Maybe not walk around in a suit and SCUBA flippers, but you get my drift.
AWESOME..!!!
The man with the Golden Scuba Flippers..!!!
DJT completely understand his enemy.
He’s going to out-unpredictable the famously unpredictable guy.
We have the perfect Prez for our time.
BUMP
We have been always a few steps behind when it comes to dealing with N. Korea. Not deploying drastic option early did cost us dearly and created the mess we face. Had we pursued sweeping sanctions to Chinese enablers and N. Korea several years early, we could have had better chance of solving it at far less cost.
I doubt Kim’s Young’un would pop off any missiles at US or US interests. The one thing that drives him is his own survival, he’ll even take out family members along with any official that he suspect pose a danger to his status as the ongoing “great leader-ness”.
He knows that whatever damage he could inflict on the US, it would be dwarfed by what the US would do to NK. It would mean the end of NK, the end of the Kim dynasty and likely the end of his own life. No more movies, expensive booze and food, women or basketball for him. He’s not the suicidal-kamikaze type.
Not advocating for action or inaction based on the premise, just making an observation.
Without tying it to action/inaction would you agree the premise is valid? If not, what seems incorrect?
He does not want to die, but is willing to cut it too close at the risk of crossing the line.
I am concerned that some people conclude that he cannot even take such a risk because he wants to live. He may not be suicidal but extremely greedy and overzealous, which, in retrospect, can be viewed as reckless and suicidal later.
Another question is that, if he pushes so hard but cannot prevail, will he back down and make a deal? If he still clings to his nuke and refuse, what is our characterization about his behavior? Death wish or the outcome of logical decision-making?
This is why the discussion on his death wish gets murky. It can be different thing to different people.
Yeah, NK is what the Brits used to call a “sticky wicket”. It’s not a good idea to predicate everything on what move Kim might make or not make.
All the options are sticky wickets as to what could go wrong.
If I had my druthers and everything would work out 100% perfectly, I’d blast NK totally off the planet - along with the MidEast (save Israel).
The people that are most at danger from Kim are the South Koreans and the Japanese. He can mess up the South pretty easily the way it is right now, Japan a little less so, but still massively.
It’s one decision that I’m glad to be out of the loop on, if and when something goes down.
The possibility of miscalculation or misinterpretation: Note this by S. Korea's President Moon (from this article) North Korea appears to be inches away from the red line, which President Moon Jae-in defined as being capable of developing nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles.
and then also: http://www.businessinsider.com/south-korean-moon-massive-punishment-north-korea-crosses-the-line-2017-8
Kimmy might not strike 1st at Seoul or Guam, but he may think Moon or Trump will allow that capability - and maybe they will not.
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The possibility of mistake: Such as a North Korean test that goes off course and hits / nearly hits Japan or a US ship.
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Iranian / N. Korean cooperation.
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Racial hatreds in S.E. Asia. They may be now kept for the most part under a carefully maintained and polished veneer, largely for business reasons, but, a veneer it often is.
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Long term risks of a nuclear arms races in S.E. Asia and / or the ME. (See also "cooperation" above.)
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Chinese "use" of North Korea. (There are many possibilities here, and, no, I don't think the Chinese are above sacrificing millions of North Koreans to advance their own interests, especially if they think they can blame the US.)
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The possibility (approaching probability with time) of "Murphy's Law" enforcing itself. Does N. Korea have the sorts of internal "Fail Safe's" the US and Russia do? What if a North Korean General decides, rationally or not, to hit back @ the Kim dynasty after a friend or family member gets offed, and further thinks that while he cannot kill Kim himself, he can create an "incident" (say, a WMD strike on Seoul) that will bring down the Kims?
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The small but finite possibility Kim might make an irrational decision at some point. Recall, until short weeks ago, it appears that anyone one might ask about Stephen Paddock's rationality or decency would respond positively. Kim CLEARLY has not decency - he is vicious, and evil, and while "rational", one wonders what his brand of rationality does to a human brain with time.
Agghh. “race”, not “races”.
“Does N. Korea have the sorts of internal “Fail Safe’s” the US and Russia do?”
I wouldn’t be as dependent on “fail safes”. For example, a man named Stanislav Petrov who died just last month:
http://bit.ly/2z4Nrcy
Also not quite fail safe;
http://ti.me/13ohlbv
Whatever option/route the US takes on NK, it’s wise to keep Murphy’s Law in mind.
Well, that’s just the thing: The US and Russian systems have flaws; one has to expect the North Korean’s are well behind.
I understand what you are saying, but, dependency on humans is a dicey proposition too. Plus:
1) We are talking about N. Korea, where paranoia about everyone around you is drilled in from birth (think about how THAT fits in, here), and
2) N. Korea would have to work toward capability to launch in few minutes, because otherwise they have no real nuclear deterrent: We would obliterate most if not all their nukes from our subs stationed offshore before their nukes took flight. Ie., for the Norks, a “quick hair-trigger” deterrent is the only deterrent that is a deterrent. Scary stuff.
Agreed on that last - it is ALWAYS wise to factor in Murphy.
Yup like this classic one here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZt5_27mGcE
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