Posted on 06/20/2017 8:08:45 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
If he does not want a shooting war, he has to apply serious economic pressure on China. It has to be sweeping to be effective. People in D.C. spends inordinate amount of time looking for a magical solution, a surgical measure, which will make China so powerless that it has no choice to cooperate which can be done at almost no cost on our side. I am convinced by now that there is no such solution. It is "White Elephant."
Another possibility is to park American nukes in Japan. This may not be so much a military response than political. U.S. already has boomers with enough nukes to level all major cities in China, but publicly doing it makes a political statement.
More confrontational approach in S. China Sea, fully ready for minor military skirmishes with China either by Japan or even U.S..
Another is to let Japan have enough nukes and missiles to deliver them.
Finally, hit N. Korea directly. Target sites we know are related to missile and nuclear arms.
Any of these options will make big Whigs in D.C. or Beijing scream. Using nuclear Japan as a leverage or parking nukes in Japan will make NPT folks scream while it may be effective toward China.
Trump can take up any one of these, but my concern is that pressure will be on him to water them down to the point that they are not really effective.
I don't know what would be his immediate next move. It would be nice if he can say, "We will support our allies in E. Asia to defend themselves against perceived threats with 'whatever means necessary,' including 'their own strategic weapons.'" This would be a momentous statement which will make great impact on China(and N. Korea.) He has to convince Chinese that these are not mere words. He has to show them some concrete initial steps in that direction. However, this is my suggestion and I have no idea if this kind of idea will be entertained. It will probably meet great resistance in D.C..
i have to tell you Tiger, that i really don't understand China's thought in this case.
China does business with South Korea, LOTS of business. It is good business, and trouble with the pesky North Koreans would immediately upset that business.
It does look to me as if President Trump has invasion plans in the works. North Korea needs to disappear as a nation/state. Forget regime change. While as a Libertarian, i don't see value in getting involved with somebody else's problems, these guys have been a problem for us and some valuable allies for a long time. It is past time for them to go the way of the Dodo bird.
Care to give us some insight in why China would stick it to South Korea in order to prop up a mad man who offers nothing to China?
“I was talking about the groundwork to elicit China’s cooperation, if he really meant that.”
At the time, I imagine he thought it might be an avenue to as you say elicit cooperation because when XI was here, Trump contradicted himself regarding his charge that China is a currency manipulator. Now, it would appear that China is going to “pass” on helping with NK, so whatever might have happened as regards our trade relationship takes a back seat to what he needs to do with NK. The time is long past when we should just continue to turn a blind eye to NK’s WMD/ missile development programs.
If case anyone is wondering, Trump will destroy North Korea if he think’s it’s necessary even with massive loss of life to South Korea. He will not let the Norks become a threat to the US.
“Wait, you are trying to find the “chink “in China’s armor? Hilarious!
The comedy writes itself.”
That is perhaps inadvertently funny, isn’t it.
However, I do share your general skepticism on China's behavior. China has been used to having its way when conflict arise with U.S.. If it practices some brinkmanship mixed with stalling tactics, U.S. has eventually blinked and let it have its way. There has been no real economic cost to this practice, from China's point of view. All their actions which could potentially damage their economy turned out to be OK in the end. So far.
There are also some people in U.S. even arguing for a capitulation, accepting N. Korea as a nuclear state. If Chinese hear this while sitting in Beijing, they would rather wait than putting Kim Jong-un down now.
Chinese leadership is not always a group of wise men with far-sighted vision. It has its own rigid inertia which is difficult to break. It may have something to do with the nature of communist regime. Once a certain dogma is established with party's full backing, it is nearly impossible to change. The party's decision is final and not for any further discussion. The party is infallible, so to speak.
It is marching to the disaster. In the meantime, it plays business as usual and still managed to have its way, putting its enemies on the defensive. This is, in a way, like living in a financial bubble steadily inflating for a long time.
It would end badly, but if they keep alive the dream that somehow they will harass and scare U.S. out of Pacific, they won't stop their current behavior. Especially if people on our side continue to give some hints that we are too scared of fallout from confrontation to do anything serious.
Somebody has to show them in no uncertain terms that there is a scary downside to their behavior.
Because of their inaction, the strategic landscape of E. Asia is actually changing. Whichever way it plays out it won't be status quo.
At the least, China should get used to living with a couple of hundred medium-range missiles pointed at their cities by some neighbor(s.) "Taking care of U.S." is not really the end of game.
All I can say on this is he did not put enough pressure - give China strong enough reasons - for China to be more successful in pressuring North Korea.
China has the ability to apply enough pressure on North Korea. To the extent China has not applied all the pressure it is capable of, you can only conclude China did not obtain enough pressure from the U.S. to do so.
A fail is still a fail. F on the report card. I can’t believe Trump if falling for this.
China helped in no way at all. Time to go after CHINESE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS WORLDWIDE who have any dealings with NK, and that's many of them!
Well. He got a big fat Chinese YES.
In Asia in business, you know that you have your YES and then you have your YES.
Surprising for a guy who prides himself on being smarter than all these other chucks along the line who have been had by Beijing and that he would do us better and smarter. Disappointing. The Japanese here in Tokyo sure know it, they saw it coming, too. But, what could they do?? He just had to learn it the hard way and get screwed first.
Valid points. I don’t think anyone is taking their nuclear program away, peacefully.
We have a horrid neighbor-from-hell on the block!
I know the risks are great, but if NK is hit hard, very hard, one can only wonder will they launch a war they can’t win.
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