Posted on 05/28/2017 4:53:29 AM PDT by Kaslin
Last week was consequential for Greg Gianforte. Awfully.
On the bright side, the Republican businessman won the special election for Montana’s lone seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. But Gianforte also body-slammed a reporter, apparently. He now faces misdemeanor assault charges.
For which he apologized publicly . . . as he was declaring victory.
National Democrats declared victory as well. As the Washington Post reported before the votes were counted, “Democrats prepared to claim victory no matter the outcome.” I guess they can relish having Gianforte in Congress to provide Republicans yet more embarrassment.
Still, let’s body-slam the silly and simplistic spin that losing yet another special election is a harbinger of growing Democratic Party strength. “Republicans’ 7-point win in last night’s Montana election is great news for Democrats,” the progressive Vox headlined Matthew Yglesias’s story.
“If Republicans are winning in places like Montana by just 7 percentage points, then they are in extreme peril of losing their House majority in November 2018,” predicted Yglesias. His advice? “Republican leaders have taken their party on a risky course, and they ought to strongly consider turning the ship around.”
It’s not that I wouldn’t suggest different steering, were I advising the GOP. But it wouldn’t be to Yglesias’s preferred destination. And let’s first examine what the numbers in Montana really mean.
Harry Enton at FiveThirtyEight blog, like most mainstream media reporters, pundits and experts, points to Gianforte’s margin of victory coming in well below President Trump’s margin last November. True enough, Gianforte won by six percentage points last week, while Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 20 points last November. Thus, the GOP has fallen 13 points from last year — or so the thinking goes.
But the comparison is faulty. Gianforte was also on the statewide ballot last November, along with Trump. Gianforte lost the race for governor to Democrat Steve Bullock, 50 to 46 percent. So, his Trump-deficit last November was even larger — not a mere 13 points, but 24.
In fact, Gianforte improved his showing from November — even with the last-minute criminal assault charge. How is that a sign of the GOP generically losing support?
The truth is that in last year’s presidential election Hillary Clinton badly underperformed for a Democrat in Montana, garnering a pathetic 35.4 percent of the statewide vote against Trump’s 55.6 percent. Had Gianforte faced Hillary Clinton last November or last week, rather than a Big Sky Country Democrat, he might have defeated her by 20 percent of the vote, too.
Other analysts skip the race-by-race analysis and identify Montana as a solidly red state, where Republicans have a sizable advantage. While the state clearly does lean GOP, it is hardly dominated by the party. One or both of Montana’s two U.S. Senators have been Democrats since 1913.
In looking ahead to next year’s midterm elections, Republicans have plenty of reason to worry about energized Democrats — and, moreover, about a conservative base completely depressed over the party’s failures in Washington. But that is decidedly not the message coming last week from Montana.
What is the message?
There are several, actually. Certainly one clear message is that the electoral process is broken. One can blame voters for the politicians who get elected, sure. But when the major parties regularly nominate candidates reviled by most citizens, and rules make it nearly impossible for alternative candidates to get a fair shot at being in debates and gaining exposure, what is a voter to do?
Last year’s presidential contest pitted two thoroughly unpopular candidates against each other, providing voters with a choice between bad and worse. The winner of the Montana special election wasn’t necessarily the person Montanans wanted to represent them in Congress, but the lesser of evils.
There are numerous reforms that would help: end unfair barriers to ballot access (and access to public debates) for independent and minor party candidates; use Ranked Choice Voting, which encourages a more civil political discussion; and even term limits, which, at the very least, limit how long any one jerk can be in office.
There were also troubling messages sent about civility, partisanship and the place of the media in our political process.
Some questioned whether the violent incident was even a negative for Gianforte, who raised $100,000 the following day. When, in his victory speech, Gianforte apologized for assaulting reporter Ben Jacobs with The Guardian, stating, “I made a mistake,” one person in the election night crowd yelled, “Not in our minds!”
Physically attacking a reporter is 110 percent wrong. Nonetheless, the response of many that the journalist may have “had it coming” stems from a growing hostility Republicans feel toward the media. Yet, that animus is not altogether unearned — especially in the age of Trump, when some in the media urge journalists to “oppose” the president.
“If you check the party affiliation of someone who commits assaults before deciding how you feel about it,” tweeted pollster Frank Luntz, “you’re what’s wrong with America.”
Luntz is right. Partisanship means always having to hold your nose for your own slime-ball.
Perhaps the most obvious message from the Montana election is that early voting periods have gotten far too long and are problematic. Montana’s early voting began nearly four weeks before Election Day. When the assault occurred, it did not matter as much because most Montanans had already cast their ballot.
It is critical that we vote all together, with essentially the same information before us. Make Election Day a three or five-day period, where it’s easy enough for those who care to vote to do so, but not a nearly month-long process, whereby a candidate can have already banked the majority of votes before the campaign is over.
The ups and downs of early voting.
LOL! If Gianforte will be an embarrassment for Republicans, then what are most of the Dem congresscritters for Dems?????
Au contraire, I believe he will be an asset for the Republicans
Bodyslam the Media! Sounds like a cool t-shirt.
The downs were clearly with the rats
Hope they can find a good statewide candidate to defeat sen Tester. Why not Gianforte.
45% of eligible voters or so didn’t even bother to vote in this special election. If you look at non-voters as a political party or movement, it dwarfs both of the actual political parties. I have a hard time buying that things are so urgent or desperate when so many just don’t care enough to deign to vote.
Freegards
Exactly...this is dribble!!!! The rats are the most despicable embarrassment to this nation and around the globe!!! Their stupid childish tantrums like sitting on the senate and congress floors kicking, pouting and whining because they didn’t get their way! NOW THAT’S A FREAKIN EMBARRASSMENT FOR OUR NATION!! ....And the world!! The nasty evil terrorists are LAUGHING THEIR @SSES BIGLY!!!
Is this Common Core math?
Gianforte lost the race for governor to Democrat Steve Bullock, 50 to 46 percent. So, his Trump-deficit last November was even larger — not a mere 13 points, but 24.
I see FOUR points. (STTNG reference)
The simple question that needs to be asked is, “Would it help *other* Republican candidates to body slam annoying leftist reporters?”
By all accounts these annoying leftist reporters are biased, hateful, acting as operatives for the Democrat party, actively lie and distort the truth, and are fawning sycophants and lickspittles who uncritically support anyone who will attack or criticize the Republicans and conservatives.
Acting true to form, he crashed a private party and otherwise behaved like an assassin, except for using a recorder instead of a knife or gun.
Importantly, the public itself abhors the prejudiced, crude and repulsive behavior of the MSM, which is why they are so consistently looked at with derision or even revulsion.
This being said, the only remaining question is should the candidate *themselves* body slam the reporter, or should they subcontract this service to their bodyguards and other security?
The real news is Montana electing a rat governor back in November.
You mean in the 2018 midterm election? I agree why not?
This time it proved positive for our side.
So? You can’t win everything
The real message is the lying media was not able to change a single vote. This does not bode well for the Democrat midterms and especially for the Senate.
If there were video of this incident, maybe the issue would have been dropped by now. The wrestler on Greg Gutfeld pointed out that if somebody has really just been full-on BODY SLAMMED, they will not be able to calmly and evenly say, “You just body slammed me.” “You broke my glasses,” without his voice even shaking. What a set up.
With all of this noise about candidate behavior, it does not appear that anybody inside or outside the media is encouraging media types to act like grownups. So we can reasonably expect this to happen again.
WaPo all to eager to facilitate putting a national spin on things, even while losing.
Fact is: Democrats are self imploding themselves. The Republicans easily won the first of two of four special elections...now matter how the Democrats spin it!!! There are two more special elections to come, one in Georgia and one in South Carolina.
These special elections will be held on June 20th. The South Carolina election will be a slam dunk Republican victory. The Democrat will get slaughtered, politically. The Georgia, 6th Congressional district will be close, if Republicans, Conservatives and independents, etc. do not turnout in massive numbers to defeat the Obama/Clinton farce, called Jon “Pajama Boy” Ossoff. The Democrats have poured in over 12 millions dollars to win this seat. If the Democrat lose this seat...the bottom line is four losses and no victories for the failing Democrat Party!!!
I sincerely hope the Republican party and the Republican National Committee (RNC), lead by Ronna Romney McDaniel fully recognizes and realizes the importance of defeating the empty suit, Mr. Ossoff!!!
I, for, one think Ms. McDaniel is a slacker, like her uncle Mitt Romney, and I am severely concerned that she and the RNC will not do the necessary functions to go all out to win this election. I would besiege Republican voters across the nation to bang on the door of the “missing” Ms. McDaniel to get her butt in gear, like right now and do what is necessary to win this race, by simply insuring that every voter that favors Karen Handel turns out and votes for her. Nothing less is acceptable IMHO!!!
If the Democrats lose all four of these Special Elections it basically means that the 2018 Mid-Term elections will bring devastating defeats to the entire Democrat party. I believe the Democrats will lose between 8-12 Senate seats, and 10-20 house seats....which effectively will render the Democrat Part, dead , POLITICALLY!!!
So......every voter in the Georgia 6th Congressional district must turnout and vote for Karen Handel on June 20th, 2018!!! GO KAREN HANDEL & GO POTUS, DONALD J. TRUMP...MAGA!!! Do it!!!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.