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Why Trump is stronger than he looks: Repeated polling reveals trends that single sampling does not
The Washington Times ^ | May 9, 2017 | J.T. Young

Posted on 05/09/2017 7:37:06 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

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To: Dave W

Districts matter despite your emphasis of the corrupt, populate vote.


21 posted on 05/09/2017 11:46:59 PM PDT by Gene Eric (Don't be a statist!)
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To: Angels27; Gene Eric

Trump may have had pockets of strength in New York state, but he lost the total state vote by 23%, a landslide by any measure.

He lost California by 30%.

In 2012, Romney got almost 400,000 more votes in California than Trump got.

In Wisconsin, Trump won the state, but Trump got less votes than Romney got, and Romney lost Wisconsin by 7%.

The Democrats, and Hillary Clinton, are not weak.

They simply failed to turn out their voters in three key states, probably because of poll driven over confidence.

In Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the Green Party got enough votes in each of those states to give Hillary a majority - and the White House.


22 posted on 05/10/2017 12:58:05 AM PDT by zeestephen
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To: Angels27
I live in California and can say with certainty at least 75% hate Trump and nothing will change their mind.

Thanks to the EC, even if the number goes from 75% to 99.99%, why should we care?

23 posted on 05/10/2017 1:10:51 AM PDT by cynwoody
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

MSM polls have a serious technical defect. It is colloquially known as “Republicans slamming the phone down in their damned ears when they realize who is calling.” ;)


24 posted on 05/10/2017 1:25:13 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves ([CTRL]-[GALT]-[DELETE])
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To: Angels27

Hopeful Prediction: After Pence is elected president the second time, California will vote for, and try to negotiate, a Calexit.


25 posted on 05/10/2017 2:32:37 AM PDT by ReaganGeneration2
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To: TheConservativeTejano

I’m having second thoughts about Paul Ryan.

When you consider he’s in office because RINO supported him, he was nonetheless able to get the health care bill through the House.

Perhaps the first go around (the Ryan plan) failed because the RINOs had to be satisfied. And it’s failure led to the better plan that passed.

We don’t really know what Ryan personally favors because he represents the whole House of Republicans. But he did deliver to Trump a victory.


26 posted on 05/10/2017 3:41:18 AM PDT by poconopundit (FR: Self-Reliant Lovers of Liberty who can't stop the Chatter)
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To: zeestephen

Trump actually got slightly more votes than Romney got in Wisconsin. Trump got 300,000 more votes in PA. than Romney. Clinton got slightly more votes than Obama in PA. I agree we shouldn’t let down our guard this country is 50/50 but Trump did very well.


27 posted on 05/10/2017 5:00:32 AM PDT by McCarthysGhost
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To: McCarthysGhost
2012 - Romney - Wisconsin - 1,407,966

2016 - Trump - Wisconsin - 1,405,284

The Romney number is certified by Congress.

I don't think Congress has certified the 2016 election yet.

However, Trump's number appears on Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.

Dave Leip is universally considered to be the number one American scholar on U.S. presidential elections.

28 posted on 05/10/2017 9:28:24 AM PDT by zeestephen
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To: McCarthysGhost
Re: “Clinton got slightly more votes than Obama in PA.”

Not according to Congress and Dave Leip.

Obama (2012) - 2.990 million

Trump - 2.970 million

Clinton - 2.926 million

29 posted on 05/10/2017 9:45:27 AM PDT by zeestephen
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To: zeestephen

I was looking at some slightly different numbers. But Trump outperformed Romney in Pa, Fl, Oh, Nc, Ia, and got 2 million more votes nationally. I think your premise that it was a simple lack of turn out for hillary is not the full story although she had some problems with turnout. She did great in Florida, for example, but Trump did better surpassing Obama’s 2008 and 2012 totals by a lot.


30 posted on 05/10/2017 11:51:14 AM PDT by McCarthysGhost
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To: McCarthysGhost

My main premise is that Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania were the only three large states that had some chance of flipping to Trump.

I think Hillary, and hundreds of thousands of individual voters in those states, were completely beguiled by the wildly wrong state polls.

From memory, small parties increased their vote total in 2016 by a huge 5.6 million.

I’ll wager that 90% of the Green Party voters in those states would have voted for Hillary if they thought Trump might win.

Normally, the Libertarian Party trends about 60% Republican.

But, I guarantee that did not happen in 2016.

The Libertarian presidential nominee publicly campaigned for Open Borders and Amnesty.

William Weld, the vice-presidential nominee, publicly stated he would vote for Hillary if he was not running on the Libertarian ticket.

I’ll wager that a significant chunk of the Libertarian vote in those three states would have gone to Hillary if those voters had any clue that Trump might win.


31 posted on 05/10/2017 2:32:40 PM PDT by zeestephen
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