Why Trump's 4% GDP Will Remain Elusive: It's Not His fault, it is simply a function of math

Zero hedge ^ | 01/03/2016 | Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com

[Gen.Blather]

“WE ARE IN A TRADE WAR NOW. “

The difference is between a cold war and a hot war. The trick, which I think Trump can pull off, is to end the cold war without igniting a hot war.

[Alberta's Child]

Here's the dilemma ...

Real GDP growth comes from one or both of the following: (1) growth in population, and (2) growth in productivity.

As our population ages, productivity declines for many of our citizens. So where does the GDP growth come from if any population growth has to offset the negative productivity of a large number of near-term retirees?

[Ancesthntr]

Just like Ronald Reagan, Donald Trump - whom the pundits, media and inside-the-beltway types view as a fool, a well-meaning dunce - will have to prove that it is those bloviating fools who actually don’t know what they are talking about. Since Trump is far more business-saavy than Reagan was, I would expect that the economic situation will be even better under Trump than it was under Reagan (assuming, of course, that he gets what he wants in a timely manner from Congress).

Anyhow, economic growth comes from productivity gains, which come from investments in human and technological capital. Business does that routinely, as does anyone who is educating him/herself. Remove the shackles of high taxes and onerous environmental and compliance-oriented regulations, and the growth that we used to experience naturally will return. In doing so, we will REDUCE debt (though not in Trump’s first year - that’s asking a bit much). Didn’t we have growth in the ‘90s while reducing government debt?

[dila813]

“Congressional Budget Office” — same office that said Obamacare would lower the cost of healthcare and be deficit neutral.

[RonnG]

And there is no way Trump has a path to 270 electoral votes and Hillary Clinton is 98% certain to win

[Valpal1]

Growth in productivity = robots. Yet that is a problem as well, because workers displaced by robots can’t afford the products the robots make.

The fact is, we have a perfect storm of excessive government (debt, taxes and regulation), excessive consumer debt, aging population and negative population growth (the dirty secret of pro-immigration ideology is that they’ve been trying to shore up gdp with population growth through immigration).

I have no idea what is going to happen, but it will be interesting and uncomfortable

[Gargantua]

I've got a fifty $$$ that says Trump hits 5% in his second year, maybe by the end of his first.

[crz]

Can you point to anything in my reply to you where I mentioned the constitution and free trade?
Or are you one who likes to come on here simply to argue?

[miniTAX]

Projection, curves, maths... I’m impressed!
I project that the author predicted a market crash if Trump wins.

[miniTAX]

False premise IMHO : real GDP growth comes from growth in WORKING population and not “from growth in population”. There is room for growth in working population given the low workforce participation rate.
Besides, I suspect there are more than 2 reasons for GDP growth.

[DoughtyOne]

Zero Hedge?

More like, Zero respect for the American people.

[Windflier]

“...as a landlord it is illegal for me to do my own repairs or put on my own roof.”

Never heard of such a thing. Is that a Florida regulation?

[eddie willers]

Stuff like this are true....until it isn’t.

[Gen.Blather]

““...as a landlord it is illegal for me to do my own repairs or put on my own roof.”
Never heard of such a thing. Is that a Florida regulation?”

It is a county law/regulation. I am virtually forbidden to do plumbing, electrical, or any roof repair over (I think it’s $250.) I must obtain a permit and hire a contractor.

(Now, all of that aside, it’s a rural county and I have bought houses off the main roads. So, I have done everything myself, but not legally. One problem with that would be selling or insuring the structures. I can’t prove, for example, when a roof was put on as it must be proven by a permit. I am also not permitted to hire unlicensed people. I can, however, use family. So, the guys are briefed on the family relationship to claim. Also, I will stand there, with a practiced, straight face and swear I am moving in myself. It is permitted to use family members to work on your own home. But, not for roofs or plumbing unless they are licensed.)

The rents in this rural county have gone up twenty percent from last year to this. That’s because bigger landlords simply can’t cut corners as they are too well known and their properties are on main roads.

[11Bush]

A real nice assortment of graphics. Good use of color, multiple formats, decent labeling.

Of course, they mean little in the real world.

[Eric Pode of Croydon]

The political class of both parties will soon come to love big tariffs if Trump winds up going that route.

I can hardly think of a better way to milk the donor class for dollars than to play the game of who gets tariff protection and who does not.

[YogicCowboy]

Thank you!

[crz]

And so said James Madison in his address to the states, April 25th, 1783.

He said of all abhorrent taxes, the tax on consumption was the least burdensome. And of these, the least abhorrent was that of taxes on foreign commerce.

[crz]

Go back and take a look at Reagans during his first term.

Then his second...and then after the one worlders took over, it went down.

GHW Bush was NOT a very good president.

[DannyTN]

1. Only 60% of our working age people are actually working. So if you put them back to work, you have a huge productivity boost. You go from not producing anything to producing something.
2. 94% of the jobs created under Obama are part time jobs. If you put those people to work full time, you go from producing a little to producing a lot.
3. And productivity is going to come from automation as well. As the job market tightens the incentive to automate will increase.

But if you don't stop the offshoring and bring the industries back, you won't see automation here. You will see it in other countries and our unemployment will keep getting worse. Our national debt will increase and we will become increasingly poor.