Saudi arms money is running out

The Guardian ^ | 11 Dec 2016 | Richard Wilson

[Cronos]

Saudi Arabia is certainly fighting proxy wars in the Middle East (Allies rally to Johnson over Saudi gaffe, 9 December), as well as promoting its form of Islam in many countries around the world. But it is not just for their oil and for their lucrative custom, for as long as they can pay, that we court Saudi Arabia. We were friendly with the Shah of Persia and selling him aircraft only weeks before he fled his country. The west found itself needing the stability the Saudi regime provides in the region.

But it can now be predicted that all of this will end – perhaps soon – and that things will become catastrophically worse in the region. Saudi Arabia is running out of money and, despite protestations and efforts to prevent it, the momentum towards bankruptcy seems unstoppable. Saudi’s cash flow is depleted by low oil prices and by steadily decreasing demand for oil from that area. If the House of Saud suddenly falls, as did the Shah, religious revolutionaries of many shades will clash for power and seize the country’s massive stock of armaments. Client states will be left penniless and exposed.

[Cronos]

we need to be prepared for the coming collapse of the House of Saud. There needs to be a game-plan.

• Give the Hejaz (the west coast with Mecca and Medina) to the Hashemites
• Jordan for the West Bank MOslems
• WB and GAza to Israel
• Shia East Saudia to be joined with southern Iraq as a Shia state (this will be in Iran's orbit, but nothing we can do about this)
• Southern Saudia to Yemen
• Yemen split
• The Al Saud family eliminated

[TigerLikesRooster]

Shia East Saudia to be joined with southern Iraq as a Shia state

Before that, Turkey will invade N. Iraq effectively going to war with Iran.

[Spktyr]

Hopefully Trump, upon entering office, immediately removes all the Obama Administration restrictions on petroleum production in the US. Let’s crash the oil market and bankrupt the House of Saud.

[Ethan Clive Osgoode]

restrictions on petroleum production in the US

Gotta wonder why we even have restrictions on something like that.

[Candor7]

The Sauds will not fall, but they will have to pay a lot more for US protection.

Watch the Sauds seek public rapprochement with Israel soon.That will be a sign that Trump’s policies are taking firm hold.

When the IRAN deal is “undone,” i suspect that the Sauds will be elated.

[vette6387]

“Let’s crash the oil market and bankrupt the House of Saud.”

When the House of Saud goes bankrupt, the locals will kill all of them. Life is good!

[Cronos]

No. They would do this only if Kurdistan got freedom.

Turkey may invade North Iraq, but that would bring Turkey into direct conflict with IRan AND Russia and Iraq and the Kurds.

[arthurus]

Turkiye the big dog waiting. It would be historically typical if it winds up pitting Istanbul against Moscow. It would not be a walkover for the Russians. I suspect they would have to use nukes or get out. Nukes are probably out of the question there. That possible conflict is why we should retain our military alliance with Turkiye for the nonce. With a strong America oriented President in DC it would deter Russia. If there is to be a locally major power controlling the ME, and that is likely if the Sauds evaporate, which do we prefer Istanbyl or Teheran? The answer is not obvious.

[odds]

>>”The Sauds will not fall, but they will have to pay a lot more for US protection.”<<

Short-term they won’t. Longer term is anyone’s guess.

>>”Watch the Sauds seek public rapprochement with Israel soon.”<<

The Saudis, it’s been well known, are aligned with Israel in their foreign policy, for that region. If they *publicly* admit it or not that’s their call.

>>”When the IRAN deal is “undone,” i suspect that the Sauds will be elated.”<<

There is no signed nuclear deal with Iran. It was not signed. “The Deal” is not legally binding. The Iranians and all other parties involved know it. And, “The Deal” is/was not only between the U.S. and Iran, but also P5 + 1.

“The Deal”, as it stands, is simply a Framework and essentially “An Understanding of mutual Commitments for a Plan of Action”.

IOW, basically, the Trump administration can walk away from it, as can any or all of P5+1 countries, as well as the Iranian regime.

[Cronos]

I would prefer the following:

• US uses its huge resources of hydro, solar, nuclear, wind power to up the renewables component
• Drives more towards hybrids, electricals etc.
• Conserves (remember, we're conservatives) US petrol so that the US will have cheap and readily available petrol for all it's petroleum needs for 50, 100 years
• drill everywhere, but keep close track of "proven, unused millions of barrels" -- never should the US fall short and be dependent on anyone else
• Installing fracking, solar power, hydro etc. in Africa, China, India, so that they too get off importing ME oil
• Bankrupt the bedouins

[Cronos]

I would prefer Russia returning the Hagia Sophia to Christendom

[SauronOfMordor]

Be careful what you wish for.

Think about Iran after the Shah fell. If the House of Saud falls, they are NOT likely to be replaced by a secular constitutional republic. Imagine ISIS with lots of oil money.

[usconservative]

Before that, Turkey will invade N. Iraq effectively going to war with Iran.

Let 'em fight. Iran is a long standing Theocracy, Turkey is rapidly becoming one. Let 'em kill each other I say.

[usconservative]

Imagine ISIS with lots of oil money.

Fact is, we should've turned Saudi Arabia into one big sheet of glass after 9-11. We may do that just yet if what you say comes to fruition.

Wouldn't be a bad thing IMO.

[usconservative]

If there is to be a locally major power controlling the ME, and that is likely if the Sauds evaporate, which do we prefer Istanbyl or Teheran? The answer is not obvious.

Correct, it's not obvious. Tehran is a long standing hard-line islamic theocracy while Turkey is rapidly becoming one.

Neither is a good choice, continuing to support the House of Saud isn't either.

[TigerLikesRooster]

I don't think Erdogan is merely concerned with Kurdish independence.
If House of Saud falls and Shia Iran basically controls most of Mid-East oil (Iran, Iraq, Eastern Arabian Peninsula,) the stake will rise. Sunnis are likely to coalesce around Turkey. Turkey wants to be a resurgent empire so they have to step up the plate. Can you imagine Mid-East empire without any control of oil in that region?

[Cronos]

The Sauds will fall -- in the next decade or so. They are the ruling family who conquered other families and tribes. They have only kept the animosity under check by a combination of Wahabbi Islam and large welfare (basically fi you are a Sunni SAud, you don't need to work)

That's ending because they are running out of money to pay for everyone. And, at the same time, we need to ensure that their Wahabbi preaching fails

"Sauds seek public rapprochement with Israel soon" -- that would only hasten their fall. The moment they announce this, the tribes will rise up and kick them out -- even the army will revolt

[Spktyr]

That’s the hilarious part. Should we crank up US production to the point where we no longer need Saudi oil, the remainder of the EU and more importantly *China* will have no choice but to step in and deal with the issues to ensure *their* supply. Right now, they let us do the heavy lifting in the area because we need Middle East oil. The second we no longer have interests, we stop doing the work and they have to take over.

Let China and the EU get caught up and pre-occupied with the next decade of war and ‘peacekeeping’ in the region.

[Cronos]

True, he's not merely concerned with that. First is consolidating his rule, then next is ensuring that the eastern third of his country doesn't break away. Finally, it is about becoming an oil power

Sunnis won't coalesce around Turkey -- the Arabs definitely not, nor North Africans.

And Pakistan may be, may be not

[Spktyr]

Hydro is dangerous, solar is expensive and requires a lot of water to keep going (and doesn’t work at night or when it’s cloudy), and wind is inconsistent plus unreliable. Nuclear is the best choice, but whether even Trump can get the nuclear power industry restarted is a really big question.

We need to go ahead and convert to a hydrogen economy for our vehicle fleets. That alone will massively reduce our consumption of CONUS oil while increasing the ability to fuel our fleets.

Also, why do you not want China to be preoccupied and have its treasury drained by a decade or so of ‘war’ or ‘peacekeeping’ in the Middle East that doesn’t involve us?