Posted on 10/31/2016 3:02:30 AM PDT by FlyingFish
Its going to be R +2.
IBD and other polls are way off in their voter turnout estimate.
They’re in the tank for Hillary to such an extent they ignore the underlying data to favor their ideological bias.
Last time they were this way off was in 2014 and we all know how it turned out.
If Weiner had longer hair he would look like Iggy Pop!
You need to offer a secret hand-shake before making a post like that one.
You sound like a Hillary staffer trying to imitate right-wing talking points.
It looks like almost all polling institutes have decided on a D+5% to D+7% model. That is as much as or more than Obama got.
The only way you can even come close to that result with a very unpopular candidate like Clinton is either that Trump scares so many voters, or that they try to correct for vote fraud.
Personally, I do not buy any of those arguments.
And fraud.
How many US state secrets could be in the Weiner hard drive given the viruses, Malware, Spyware etc from the sites this pervert visits.
MSM is using these latest Clinton Crime family scandals as an opportunity to bring their bogus polls more in line with reality.
Don’t buy it for a minute.
Trump was ahead the whole time.
Watch where they are travelling and not travelling. That speaks volumes about which states are now in contention. Trump is travelling to NM, CO and MI. Clinton is in Florida and NC. If MI, NM and CO are in contention, it’s Trump on election night, and Trump early.
Hillary never had a lead, all her leads was because of Dem oversampling D+8 D+9 LOL
Who is LS?
..Thanks I was going to ask what the sampling was...
Up to this point in our history voting fraud has traditionally been limited to specific urban areas and specific precincts within those cities.
The good news is that many of the northeast and Midwest cities where voter fraud is a major issue have lost significant population in recent years. That limits the damage that can be done in the electoral college.
One example to watch on the 8th is Michigan. Detroit has lost 70% of its population since the 1960s and is now a mcuh smaller percentage of the total Michigan vote. That is one reason I believe Trump will stump the “experts” and win the state.
It has to be ideological.
Ignoring data or reinterpreting it to fit with they hope will happen.
Jake Novak wrote about it about a couple of months ago and termed the effect groupthink or confirmation bias.
They’re all liberals and they all think alike and none of them check the other assumptions to be sure they still match with reality.
During World II, Allied military brass did the same thing by dismissing signs right in front of them the Germans were prepped for a breakout offensive in the Ardennes.
That intelligence blunder cost thousands of lives. The pollsters’ blunder at worst will cost Hillary the election.
If they are having to reweight by 12 Pts - a massive shift - just to show tied - wow
I think Huma and Hillary will try and dump this in Weiner’s lap. I think that Weiner is trying to make a deal so he won’t end up in Fort Marcy Park.
Indeed. It seems that whenever someone posts a positive thread on here, it isn't long before the moaners appear.
I've learned that the best thing to do is just focus on the positive article and not even bother to read any of the comments, because apparently some folks here never found a parade they didn't want to rain on. ;)
And we won't be too sad about that, will we? :-)
Seriously though, I agree, it has to be groupthink.
I have really tried hard to see it from their point of view, but with the internet figures (views on YouTube, twitter, FB etc etc), the numbers attending the rallies,the real data of early voting (not "exit polls"), and the comparison between the 2008, 2012 and the present election I cannot come to any other conclusion that the majority of the pollsters are sleepwalking into an election night as infamous as the Truman/Dewey one.
As I understand it, the IBD poll was finding an R+1 in its responses, so they reweighted it to D+7. This immediately forced the IBD poll into showing Clinton with a lead she hadn't had in their poll for a long time.
It appears they are “unreweighing” gradually, as of today.
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