Posted on 10/19/2016 10:39:40 AM PDT by Ravi
“A D+18 sample and this is all she can muster? Am I misguided in my exuberance here?”
No, this spells a Trump Victory. D+18 is a complete joke.
Go into the bowels of the report. Page 11 of 223 in the PDF. Tucked away of course.
I don’t see D+18. According to the summary, it’s D+9 with 38% as independents.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dcylbatepw/econToplines.pdf
1032 LV; 434 Dems; 346 Indies; 252 GOP voters.
Go to the link.
scroll down to demographic breakdown.
go to question #5, Presidential intention to vote.
There you will see the intentions by party ID and the absolute numbers of Dems, Reps and Inds.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3eyveosiyg/econTabReport.pdf
Page 11 has the presidential election poll. 434 D, 346 I, 252 R (1032 total)
In the pdf link, they list party affiliation raw numbers as 434/346/252 (D/R/I). That works out to (42.05%/33.53%/24.42%). Not quite 18% more D than R, but still way oversampling democrats.
This is truly a stealth poll that the media is using to suppress Trump supporters.
Ignore the polls and vote!
Where did these real numbers come from? And do they represent party registration or a prediction of who will vote this cycle?
That would be only D+8.6, albeit low independence (with Independence favoring Trump more, so additional skewed to Clinton):
D = 434.0 / 1032.0
R = 346.0 / 1032.0
I = 252.0/ 1032.0
D = 42.1%
R = 33.5%
I = 24.4%
You swapped the R & I “N” values ...
You swapped the R and the I...
And considerably undersampling independents.
Can we spell d-e-s-p-e-r-a-t-i-o-n, boys and girls?
Also check out the conservative/moderate/liberal split. 384 moderates, 328 liberals and 320 conservatives. That has never been the ratio for any real recent election.
If I remember correctly. YouGov was off about 8% on Brexit.
Sounds like it may be worse here.
Not only is the sampling completely out of whack, there are 13% of respondents are not given to anyone????
Based on the headline, everyone is in the negative.
Yes they were. They had remain to win 51 to 49. Leave won 52 to 48. 6 point whiff.
That is the national average according to Gallup and that is the normalization that must be applied to the data. Oversampling from any group (data set) introduces error that compounds. Gallup had the distribution in Jan of this year at 29% Dem 26% GOP 45% Indy which has changed with the primary. Trump brought lots of new voters in the GOP which upped their numbers. Applying these 2012 turnout models is horseshit.
:O
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