Posted on 09/21/2016 10:12:54 AM PDT by nhwingut
Currently it’s R=30%,
D=39.8
I=29.4
So this isn’t off much, but undercounts indies which is to Trump’s disadvantage.
This is likely Trump +3/4 at this point based on NC voter reg.
It seems to me that it would also look up the results in favor of McCrory. I worry that his unpopularity will hurt Trump
Yep, so D +9.8 is accurate. This is just a tad high (+10)
This is pure crap: here’s why. They used 43 Dems to 33 Repubs and 24 Indies. Where they got this breakdown is a puzzle since in the last presidential race in North Carolina the breakdown was 39 Dem voters to 36 Repubs and in the last election, (2014) the breakdown was 36 Dems to 35 Repubs.
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NC/president/ 39/36
http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/NC/senate/ 36 D 35 R
Also they claimed an eighty percent response rate? Really? the industry average as per a recent Pew report is 8 percent!
They also used 22% African American respondents. That is 9 points higher than the 13% AAs that made up the 2012 voters in North Carolina and is a group that another survey found supports Trump 32% so it still votes 68% for other than Trump.
PPP makes no bones about acknowledging it is a Democrat leaning firm. With all of these discrepancies Trump is clearly up about 6 points not 2 in North Carolina.
Not really.
They ask “Are you a democrat/republican/independent?” The correct question to ask is “are you registered as a democrat/republican/independent”? Lots of dems registered to their party in name only (really consider themselves republican or independent). Once you ask “Are you a democrat?” That’s like asking are you a redskins or cowboys fan (you immediately pick sides and vote for that team). That assures purity of your democratic sample and lessens crossovers. The registration question would give you more crossovers which I think is the more appropriate question to ask.
Also 9/22/12 registered voters: D-2,778,535; R-2,008,609; I-1,667,000
So GOP has gone up 23,000 and Dems have fallen over 100,000 voters at an equivalent point in the election cycle. Independents have increased about 341,000 which is where most of the action will be.
So what would you put the accurate D level at? +6, then bump up the Is?
I think D+6 sounds about right to me but I think this is more art than science.
His Aleppo gaffe has gotten a lot more attention than any gaffe by Obama, Biden, Bernie, or Hillary would get.
His Aleppo gaffe has gotten a lot more attention than any gaffe by Obama, Biden, Bernie, or Hillary would get.
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