First Emerson Poll of the General Election Shows Close Races in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania

Emerson College ^ | 8/29/2016 | Emerson College

[usafa92]

BOSTON, MA – Three new Emerson College polls show a tight race shaping up between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump in the key Rust Belt States of Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The two are deadlocked at 43% in Ohio. Clinton leads by three points in Pennsylvania (46% to 43%) and by five in Michigan (45% to 40%). The Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson garners 7% of the vote in Pennsylvania and Michigan and 10% in Ohio. Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2% of the vote in Ohio and Pennsylvania and 3% in Michigan. Each poll consisted of 800 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

In the three states Emerson most recently polled, both candidates face skepticism. Only 41% of Ohioans have a 41% favorable opinion of Trump versus 57% who have an unfavorable view. Clinton’s ratio is very similar: 42%/56%. In Michigan, Trump is at a 40%/55%, compared to Clinton’s 45%/52%. In Pennsylvania, Trump’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are 40%/58%, and Clinton’s are 42%/55%. Clinton’s unfavorability ratings are almost as high as Trump’s, with no more than 3 percentage points separating the two candidates. Trump tends to do better in states (such as Ohio) where Clinton’s unfavorables are similar to his.

[usafa92]

All 3 states were weighted almost identically to the 2012 Exit Polls. So they are assuming the same turnout model. As we have stated extensively on this forum. it is highly doubtful that Hillary will have the same level of enthusiasm as Obama or that Trump voters will have the same level of apathy as Romney voters. Also, these polls do not seem to take into account the so-called unseen and unpolled "Monster Vote" for Trump. But for now, the polls are what they are and I think Trump is in very good shape overall.

[navymom1]

Agree. In effect we are probably ahead in Penn and Ohio and slightly behind in Michigan.

[july4thfreedomfoundation]

For proof of that Monster Vote, in central Florida, 855,000 people are registered for the primary, up 250,000 over the last time.....people who never voted before or have not voted in years.

I doubt if they’re for Hillary.

[LS]

This is very good. OH in the bag I think, PA close but won with white turnout. MI very doable.

[Ancesthntr]

Also, Trump hasn’t yet begun to advertise in earnest, nor gone after Blacks in their communities (which he will do this week, in both cases).

No wonder Hillary has been attacking Trump as a racist...it is sheer desperation.

[KC_Conspirator]

I would not count on some unseen “monster” vote.

[jmaroneps37]

All 3 states were weighted almost identically to the 2012 Exit Polls. So they are assuming the same turnout model. As we have stated extensively on this forum. it is highly doubtful that Hillary will have the same level of enthusiasm as Obama or that Trump voters will have the same level of apathy as Romney voters. Also, these polls do not seem to take into account the so-called unseen and unpolled “Monster Vote” for Trump. But for now, the polls are what they are and I think Trump is in very good shape overall.”

Excellent logic but Dana Perino and Rush Limbaugh say “Oh we were fooled in 2012 and thought polls showing Romney down were wrong so everything is the same this time and the polls are right.” Of course - ha ha ha I call BS In Florida the State Elections people estimate 25% of those voting in the primary never ever voted before. Trump rolled.

[Gaffer]

I really, really we and the rest of this sane country would stop trading in the myth that Hillary Clinton is the formidable rightful candidate ready, willing and able to pick up the mantle of democrat largess for the masses.

It just ain’t so, Joe. Glass ceiling my ass. Fighter for the rights of the peons my ass. Defender of the faith and warrior of the unwashed legions of government dependents. My ass.

The truth is this woman has set up the most successful criminal charity scam in the history of the universe, and repeatedly lied over and over again about her involvement in handling classified information over a system designed to protect her criminal misdoings. Her cabal spends most of its time hiding all this instead of developing plans that would actually help those whose votes she seeks. And yet, those dumbasses can’t even see that.

The other truth is this woman can’t climb a flight of stairs unassisted nor get in a damn limo without a stepstool. Walking more than three feet requires somebody to hold her arms on both sides.

The nation that cannot and does not see this doesn’t deserve to continue, frankly.

[mrsmith]

Yep.
“Data was weighted by 2012 election results “

[bigbob]

Polls are tools for rigging the system. As credible as the global warming “facts”.

[DaveA37]

More bogus numbers for another “poll”.

[HamiltonJay]

This is my assumption, ahead in PA and OHIO... probably tied in MI.

[TakebackGOP]

Also remember that in 2000, Ralph Nader got less than 3% of the vote and Buchanan got less than 1%.

[nathanbedford]

I believe those are all valid points but against them we have the experience of four years of immigration, the increasingly flagrant acceptance of noncitizens as legal voters, and, wherever the election is close (within three points), the very powerful data mining proficiency of the Democrats.

The problem for us is that Trump must carry virtually all of these battleground states and a close election makes it very unlikely for him to overcome both the uphill battle in the electoral college and the items I have recounted above. Therefore it is vital the Trump breaks out and gains a four or five point national lead. In effect, he's got to swap places with Hillary.

This is still doable, despite the entrenched white female opposition against him if he can continue to stay on Teleprompter message. There is always the possibility of an October e-mail surprise. Perhaps the momentum to expose the Clinton Foundation for the criminal enterprise is will continue. It might become widely recognized that the Clinton Foundation was the "motive" for the homebrew server-a motive unnecessary for conviction under that statute but one which FBI director Comey wrote into the law.

[polymuser]

Michigan has a large contingent of Christian conservatives, especially west if I-75, that likely did the guilt vote for the black guy.

I suspect many of them have awakened, and like what Trump offers. And now it appears blacks are awakening about their actual plantation owners.

Many Michiganians would like, very much, to get back to being a manufacturing platform, and the good living wages that used to be there in much larger number.

[JamesP81]

This is very good. OH in the bag I think, PA close but won with white turnout. MI very doable.

Nothing is in the bag. But all are doable.

[usafa92]

Anecdotally speaking, I just dropped my daughter off at college and western PA was littered with Trump signs, bumper stickers and billboards all along the PA Turnpike as well as 81 and into 78. Doesn’t mean a whole lot in terms of votes but nobody was shy about their support for Trump.

[mrsmith]

But it’s technically a very good poll.
Errors are “likely voter = past regular voter”: assume Trump pulls disaffected voters;
and in turnout assumption.

Neither of those errors are clearly wrong at this point.

[grania]

In OH, Trump is going to make inroads into traditional Democratic voters...coal miners, independents who are concerned about manufacturing jobs, the black and citizen immigrant population that lose jobs and opportunities when jobs leave and non-citizen competition for jobs costs them opportunities. I don't see how those polls can be anything but flawed if they don't do some real intensive polling of those areas and others such as law and order/police votes that will go for Trump in very high percentages.

My feeling is that Trump is in very good shape, but he can't do anything (like get stupid on the illegal issue) that cuts down the enthusiasm level of his most avid supporters.

[SamAdams76]

All 3 states were weighted almost identically to the 2012 Exit Polls.

If that is indeed how these polls are being weighted, then we can all breathe a little easier. Trump is in fantastic shape.

No way will the turnout in 2016 be similar to that in 2012. Trump will pull far more votes than Romney and Shrillary will get a lot less votes than Obama.

On top of that, Trump still has upside to grow the base he already has during the homestretch of the campaign. Shrillary has nowhere to go but down.

That's no reason to be complacent however. Trump should run the campaign like he's 10 points behind. However we have much reason to be optimistic and to feel good about our prospects.