Trump is rising, Hillary is sinking.
Posted on 08/27/2016 1:52:55 PM PDT by Kaslin
Reuters giveth, and Reuters taketh away. After seeing her lead balloon to twelve points earlier in the week, Hillary Clinton’s edge on Donald Trump dropped by more than half in the latest iteration of their tracking poll. Trump has moved back within five points, mainly through a fade in Hillary’s support back to her August low:
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leads her Republican rival Donald Trump by 5 percentage points among likely voters, down from a peak this month of 12 points, according to the Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll released on Friday.
The Aug. 22-25 opinion poll found that 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton ahead of the Nov. 8 presidential election, while 36 percent supported Trump. Some 23 percent would not pick either candidate and answered “refused,” “other” or “wouldn’t vote.”
Clinton, a former secretary of state, has led real estate developer Trump in the poll since Democrats and Republicans ended their national conventions and formally nominated their presidential candidates in July. Her level of support has varied between 41 and 45 percent during that period, and her lead over Trump in the tracking poll peaked this month at 12 percentage points on Tuesday.
During the past week, Clinton has been dogged by accusations by Trump, which she has denied, that donations to her family’s charitable foundation influenced her actions while she was secretary of state from 2009 to 2013. Questions have also surfaced again about her use of a private email server and address rather than a government one during her period at the State Department.
The twelve-point peak occurred this week, not just earlier this month. Hillary went from 45/33 to 41/36 in, oh … three days. Tracking polls do have some volatility to them, but this is a bit out of the ordinary. It does, however, align the Reuters tracking poll much more closely to the YouGov tracking poll that showed the race within the margin of error.
So what changed? Maybe nothing, as Nate Silver suggested:
People underestimate how noisy polling is. Here's what random variation looks like in a 1000-person "tracking poll". pic.twitter.com/rrelQcYCMo
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 27, 2016
Let’s take a look at the same demos we did when the poll showed a 12-point gap from Trump’s perspective, with those numbers first:
Trump improved in the gap with women by nine points, improved with white voters overall (including college-educated whites), and picked up nine points in the gap with born-again Christians. What would have caused all of that? Hillary had a bad week, with all sorts of scrutiny into the Clinton Foundation and connections to actions taken at the State Department, while Donald Trump maintained focus on those scandals for most of the week. That would account for the shift, although another explanation would be that the earlier tracking results were an outlier.
This is still not great news. If these results reflect the state of the race, Trump’s still trailing, but not as badly as it appeared. One cannot lose both men and women and win the White House, after all. But this week proves that Hillary remains vulnerable — polling at 41% is hardly a strong hand — and applying a hard focus on her activities at State and the family foundation could pay off for Trump.
I thought Reuter’s was assigning the undecided voters to whomever they thought those folks would vote for and that is how they got Hillary to 16 points ahead. They were messing with the polling system to get the numbers. I pay no attention to their poll.
A LOT of those voting for Hillary were more or less content to ignore, and forget, facts about her dishonesty, but when there are multiple daily tractor trailer loads of emails proving her treason, even some of the slobbering libs begin to take note.
Polls are part of the rigged system.
Reuters is one of the riggers.
That is true
I’m eagerly awaiting Hillary’s slide into a casket.
If most people here reject all the polls that say that Trump is behind how can they embrace every poll that says Trump is ‘rebounding’ to within spitting distance or ahead of Clinton at the same time?
About an hour ago got forwarded a tweet where one of hillary’s “foreign policy advisors” told a Breitbart female report to go #### herself.
I told him “Another tough guy dem. No, you go #### yourself. And you’ve got to be kidding with foreign policy and Clinton, right?”
This female writer gets a lot of cursing and abuse from dem “men” because they’re worthless pieces of #### who have no respect for women, like bill.
Another poll ABDNCBSFOX cannot report.
There is no way he is trailing with men.
Pray America wakes
Dem +12 sample
Interesting in that there was a +11-12 Dem oversample and yet the Obama approval was only 44%.
This does not bode well for Hillary as the candidate running for the “third term” does proportionately as poorly as the approval numbers of the sitting person of their same party.
Don’t pay attention to the lame stream media polls. They are going to play with them and change them as they want. They will always end up trying to influence the vote for Hillary in the end.
If most people here reject all the polls that say that Trump is behind how can they embrace every poll that says Trump is ‘rebounding’ to within spitting distance or ahead of Clinton at the same time?
shhhh...
CNN/ORC had SHRILLARY! up +7 on 7/16, Trump at +3 on 7/24, on 7/31 they had the beast up again at +9.
These polls change methodology as soon as Trump takes a lead.
When has the GOP candidate ever lead in the polls?
“After seeing her lead balloon”
We know the trajectory of lead balloons.
I’ve tracked Reuters demographics for a while. They are all over the map. They just play with numbers for effect is my impression.
It’s a matter of reading the internals of the poll. When a poll comes out with 12% independent, that’s a bogus push poll. When a poll comes out with 51% Democrat, that’s a bogus push poll. If a poll comes out with a balance similar to the 2012 election results, then that’s a poll that’s not deliberately lying to you. When you have a poll with 67% women, that’s a push poll. When you have a poll with 28% African American, that’s a push poll. These are numbers we’ve seen so far this election cycle. The 10% Reuters/Ipsos poll had 43% Dem, 31% Republican, 12% Independent. That’s what they showed. Then, you have to add those up, and that only comes to 86%. What were the rest? 8% Libertarian and then 6% (they had to poll every one of them) Green Party. It was also 63% women. So, they found the never-trumpers, they found every Greenie. The found union halls and that’s what they polled. And somehow, even with every favorable condition they could come up with to lie to the public, they had her ahead by 10. There was one the other day with 51% Democrat and 38% Independent, and Trump was only down by 11. When you stack the deck, we are going to cry foul. There was one that was done with what, given voter excitement is appearing to be, they polled and their special sauce was Democrat 31%, Republican 36% and Independent was 31%. Lib/Green were 1% each. Trump was up by some 7 points.
At some point, we’re going to hear the press finally give up and understand they’re NOT going to be the new Ministry of Propaganda, though they keep running for it.
The Koch brothers want to help? Buy the NYT/WaPo and fire all the liberals. Clean house. Build up a JOURNALIST paper and NOT a liberal rag. Liberal positions will not be tolerated except on the editorial pages. Conservative positions will not be tolerated except on the editorial pages. Each side gets 2 columns daily for presenting opinion. Other than that, it’s pure NEWS.
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