10 years from now those Frankfurt Banks will be charging Riba
Trump is going to have to take out a full page ad in the Frankfurt Times about bringing back the death penalty so bankers are safe to jog through the Park.
The week after BREXIT....Frankfurt was talking 10,000 jobs.
About three weeks ago....the trend went to 70,000 to 80,000 jobs in the possibility of things.
I live around the Frankfurt area and analyzed the whole thing. Cost of living-wise, for what they pay in London....that’s about 150-percent of what you’d need in Frankfurt (housing, cost of living, food, entertainment, etc). Toss in the airport, public transportation and the autobahn in the region....it makes a lot of sense.
But I went one step further. It’s not really 70,000 in numbers that you end up talking about. They’d have wives, children and mistresses to haul over. So you’d end up with roughly 130,000 (my best guess) of Brits to live in the Frankfurt-Rhine Valley region (4.5 million-plus). Throw in their salary scale, and lifestyle business....it means billions across the entire valley. Construction would go into turbo, and you’d see upscale condos being built all over the place.
The reality of this? The fact that companies and banks are looking....means that they are talking about the risks and the cost. If they think being in the EU is such a big deal....they will make the move. The fact that the UK is doing to draw the negotiations out...will simply increase the nature of talks over moving and making some decision process public.
I think 10,000 jobs will move.....as a minimum. Maybe it goes up to 50,000. Frankfurt, will never be the same after that point.