LongRoom Unbiased Poll (Trump 43.6%, Clinton, 42.8%...Trump by .6%)

Long Room ^ | 8 Aug 16 | LongRoom

[Buckeye McFrog]

Anti Mormon conservatives stayed home. Presbyterians don’t have that kind of bias against them.

And the Dems ran a very subtle but devastatingly effective PsyOp to ensure that happened.

An example: a bumper sticker that said "Romney's Definition of Traditional Marriage". The graphic was one male stick figure, a + sign, and three female stick figures.

This was strategically placed on a telephone poll next to the entrance of my local polling place (the social hall of a Catholic church). No doubt they repeated this tens of thousands of times across the US.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Trump’s “go around the media” strategy was highly effective in dealing with a GOP primary electorate. But now that he is up against the more mush-minded general electorate that watches cable TV he is having problems.

[Longbow1969]

Nope. It isn’t. These people were around then and were the most accurate in their predictions.

Nonsense. This site didn't exist 30 years ago, it doesn't even look liked it existed before January. The methodology, such that it exists, is ridiculous. It's the same stupid crap as "Unskewed Polls". It is totally made up BS.

For the umpteenth time, you can NOT "unskew" a poll. You can reject it, accept it, incorporate it into an average of polls - but you can not "unskew" it, which is exactly what this website is doing.

[Red Steel]

Monmouth weight - skewing by the latest poll today. D +9%. ‘I’ skewed over by about +10%.

26% Republican

39% Independent

35% Democrat

47% Male

53% Female

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_080816/

Hillary is outperforming Obama in 2008 according to the liberals at Monmouth.

[xzins]

The party affiliation and gender numbers are clearly skewed, and we don’t know what else in the internals is also skewed.

If we had an accepted standard against which to measure these, we could come up with an average skewness for these different polls. I think that’s what LongRoom is doing, but they don’t show their math, either.

[Red Steel]

Speaking of rigging. Monmouth told us half their polling today was from a known list. No doubt they know or have called many of those before and how they will vote. It is easy to skew a poll for a desired outcome.

"The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from August 4 to 7, 2016 with a national random sample of 803 registered voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 402 drawn from a list of registered voters (200 landline / 202 cell phone) and 401 using random digit dial (200 landline / 201 cell phone). Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and partisanship based on voter list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls."

And see post #64 to see Monmouth's skewed poll weight.

[LS]

And the reason they don’t is proprietary.

[Red Steel]

I’d weight the polls this way from what I’m see with my eyes and other metrics.

D 37%
R 35%
I 28%

And I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump gets a percentage or two having R over D in this election.

According to the self ID exit polls in 2004 Bush v. Kerry had it this way.

R 37% or 38%
D 37%
I 26%

Obama v. Romney 2012 self ID exit polls:

D 38%
R 32%
I 30%

Noway in heck will the HildaBeast is get the rosy BS numbers that these SOB pollsters are saying.

[xzins]

That makes economic sense, but it frustrates inquiring minds like my own.

[xzins]

My sense is that a pollster could put a tiny .1% pro-democrat skew into all kinds of demographic categories so that on any one of them you couldn’t complain at all. But if he did it in 50 areas, you’d have a 5% skew in the entire poll.

What difference does it make if he includes 1 less “leans conservative” Hispanic in a poll than he should have. It certainly wouldn’t be something we’d notice. But if he did it with 1 less black conservative, 1 less Baptist, 1 more 25 year old, etc. through 50 different categories, it would make a substantial difference across the entire poll.

[hsmomx3]

Yep, just as I thought.

[Mozilla]

[BigEdLB]

I have been doing my own analysis... Party ID is a real euphamism

[xzins]

Do you think folks are just speaking of their tradition and not how they vote?

[NelsonEddyFan]

Feel good stuff with zero history (or credibility.) I hate it when business networks on TV feature guests whose past performance is anyone’s guess.

[NelsonEddyFan]

Romney was always ahead in 2012’s “Unskewed Polls.” The guy who posted them quickly skulked back to his day job selling shoes at PayLess.

[NelsonEddyFan]

“These people were around then and were the most accurate in their predictions.”

Who is “these people”? Please link their track record.

[TigerClaws]

Fox news is part of the problem.

Murdoch is on the board of an open borders group.

They are okay with Hillary winning. She’s part of the Uniparty and won’t upset things. There’s essentially no difference between our two parties at the top. Same people fund and run them. Hillary’s biggest donors are Wall Street.

[xzins]

On their site

[Red Steel]

Bill Mitchell Twitter page says Gallup today has it ‘Equal’ between Reps and Dems for party affiliation. He goes on wondering so where are these media pollster clowns getting D+8 ...and higher like the Monmouth poll today?

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/762773315450798081

I haven’t went to go check Gallup yet.