Posted on 08/05/2016 7:02:32 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
How Donald Trump could win - and why
Old electoral alliances are cracking up, and the new have yet to clearly form.
By Richard Seymour @leninology
Richard Seymour is an author and broadcaster based in London.
Scarcely eight months ago, some influential Democrats were delighted by signs of Donald Trump's success.
The strategy was clear. See off Bernie Sanders, veer right, target "moderate" Republicans and wait for the landslide.
The appointment of conservative Southern Democrat Tim Kaine, admired by Republicans, as her running mate reflects this emphasis. Reprising Lyndon Johnson's famous anti-Barry Goldwater ad from 1964, Hillary Clinton seems to believe that Trump's awfulness is enough to pave the way to power. US election: Republicans turning against Donald Trump
Obama's crumbling coalition
In normal circumstances, this should work. Trump is behind on money and organisation. Major hedge-fund and business donors are backing Clinton, as are key figures in the Republican establishment.
Much of the right-wing media machine has turned against him. The electoral map does not favour him. Even though his projected popular vote is not that far behind Clinton's, the geographical distribution of his vote means that the Electoral College system could play against him.
Clinton thus hopes to take over Barack Obama's electoral coalition, while adding new layers of Republican voters to it. But what if this is all horribly complacent? What if Democrats and their supporters have misjudged the situation and are in for a rude awakening?
The legacy of the Obama administration means that his coalition is crumbling. The record of stagnant wages, shrinking government spending, and no real infrastructural investment is likely to affect Democratic performances in the rustbelt, which Trump is targeting.
(Excerpt) Read more at aljazeera.com ...
I do think the author has a point in that this will largely be decided over which candidate offers a more credible big-government solution to “fix” the Rust Belt.
Which is another reason why traditional Conservatives are apoplectic about this election.
Of course there are larger issues....global terror and the Clinton’s bottomless bucket of sleaze.
The biggest issue is that if the media ha sway over voters, Trump would have lost in the primaries. They don’t. Manufacturing polls where dems are 50%+ of the sample does nothing. The debates are coming, and they are unspinnable if Clinton cracks. This may be what happens.
Lots of things about this election cycle are different than the past. How much that’ll effect the outcome is yet to be seen.
I am sticking to my position. There will BE no debates.
Hillary would be insane to get on the same stage with him. The odds that he could provoke her into doing something self-destructive is extremely high.
She will take to her feinting couch. Suffer about of blue flu. Rail that she will not stoop to debate a man who had said whatever vile thing the media will then be accusing him of. Whatever the excuse, debates will NOT happen.
The media has rapidly lost it’s sway over Republican primary voters.
Unfortunately they still have tremendous influence over this mass of mushy independents who always seem to decide the general election.
Dunno. Obama held sway in 2012 because he united the center. Hillary is unattractive and way left of Obama in 2012. They can poll allel they want but no one is going, “ Yeah! Hillary!” this election.
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