ANNA News - Front Line Report, Aleppo - 28 July 2016 (ENG Subs)

The Kurds are cleaning this slate.

ISIS is again attempting to break the siege of Manbij, to rescue their last holdouts there (maybe a few senior guys in there are still kicking). They are attacking from the North (AKA Turkey). Reportedly, a few hundred have crossed the small river which had separated them, and are attacking South.

I believe that this is the fourth time that ISIS has attempted to relieve their besieged forces in Manbij, and it is not as big as some earlier efforts, where similar sized forces attacked simultaneously from the South and West as well.

Out in the countryside, ISIS suffers many more casualties relative to SDF than they do in the city - and faster. It is a big advantage to fight them in the open, where the Kurds have better long range snipers, can effectively use air strikes, and where booby traps and IEDs can't be used much, and where there are fewer human shields for ISIS. ISIS typically gets 100-200 killed per day during these kinds of operations (but maybe half that this time), vs. a few dozen per day in the city. (they are still being killed in the city as well during this). ISIS has also unsuccessfully tried to break out from the city a few times. They may try again, if the relief force gets close enough. There is an offer to let them go if they release the hostages. Some estimates are that ISIS is down to the last 100, or less, inside the city - so it does not have much longer to make a run. Civilians are returning to parts of the city away from the last holdouts.

In Aleppo, 3,000 islamist rebels (formerly called Jahbat al Nusra, who recently renounced allegiance to al Queda and renamed themselves Jabhat Fateh al-Sham) have broken through the siege of Eastern Aleppo (which you reported the regime had recently achieved), reopening rebel supply lines there. The fighting is heavier there, but the airstrikes are Russian (much less accurate) and most of the ground forces are better equipped but less effective Syrian Army, Lebanese Hizbullah, and other Iranian militias raised in Iraq and Afghanistan. A large group of Kurds has long been surrounded in Northern Aleppo. They hold the ethnically Kurdish Sheik Masood neighborhood - they are the local residents. The Syrian regime is building up for another attack, to cut the supply lines and re-impose the siege on islamist rebels in Eastern Aleppo.

Dang! I take a few days vacation in a no cable, no DSL and no cell service area of the Boston Mountains of Arkansas and all kinds of stuff happens.

It looks like the ISIS attempt to break the siege of Manbij has failed again. They did mount some coordinated attacks from the South, and attempted a raid on the Kurds main supply line - the M4 highway over the Euphrates River, at the Tishreen Dam. All ISIS attacks have failed.

Apparently, there is still a pocket of holdouts in the East of Manbij City, but they probably don't have long to go.

Reportedly, it was a turkey shoot for Coalition air assets North of the city, with 230 ISIS killed there in one day. When the SDF/Kurdish offensive moves back into the countryside, we will likely see faster movement and higher ISIS casualties.

The Kurds may soon close the gap from Turkey to Raqqa. If/when they do, they will be left fending off the endless waves of fresh ISIS recruits coming from Turkey, like this recent attack. There will be an issue of the sustainability of the attrition cost on the Kurds in the mid term if the situation is not resolved, but once the Kurds dig in defenses, they will be able to kill several for each they lose. I fear that a Clinton administration might withdraw the air support after the election, and let the Turks flood Jihadis endlessly.

But before the election, we can expect a continued ISIS ass-kicking party.

ISIS enclaves getting tiny in Manbij. The Eastern group is now surrounded in the Grain Silos there.

The main group made a break last night, trying to head North toward ISIS lines, reportedly with a herd of 500 human shields (likely many members of prominent families). Basically, they slipped around the front line of guys shooting at them using tunnels - but they are still in the urban area.

Crossing the open country will be a big challenge, and no one from Manbij is likely to trust ISIS to release their hostages if they are allowed to make it to their lines with them. Unless they are given free passage to release hostages, death continues to close in.

Some individuals now reporting that Manbij is completely cleared - no mention if the the last holdouts were allowed free passage out though. If so, maybe a hundred survived - over 2,300 killed.

Meanwhile in Aleppo it appears that the ISIS breakthrough has turned into a trap.

Scenes from the fall of Manbij.

Fars News Agency is an Iranian regime mouthpiece - very one-sided.

Aleppo is a long drawn-out slug fest. A lot more people, a lot more combatants, and a lot more heavy weapons. None of the fighting forces are as efficient as the players in Manbij - Kurds, ISIS and US/French/UK air.

The Syrian side has gotten better with Russian advisors, but they are still not good.

We are at a branching point in the Syrian War this month. Where will the Kurds target after Manbij? What does this week’s major rapprochement between Turkey and Russia mean for Turkish support of the Rebels?

"What does this week’s major rapprochement between Turkey and Russia mean for Turkish support of the Rebels?"

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2016-7-24: Prediction: Expect more of what we’ve seen the last few weeks, in the next few weeks; through mid-August at least. Additionally, expect one or two profound...changes or reversals in power or status or presence or...an announcement/declaration.

2016-8-9:

“We have gone through a very difficult moment in the relationship between our two countries, but now we would all like to overcome it in the interests of both our peoples,” said the Russian president during a joint press conference with his Turkish counterpart in St. Petersburg.
“We want to restore our relationship not only for pragmatic reasons, but in the long-term interests of our countries, and for the sake of promoting good neighborly relations between Russians and Turks.”

https://www.rt.com/news/355249-erdogan-putin-amend-ties/

“2016-7-24: Prediction:”

Where did that prediction come from?

What is coming next?

The prediction is mine, on that date.

Next? I haven’t looked ahead. It’s time consuming.

I believe the current trajectory will continue with perhaps the second profound change (from the prediction) occurring in the next couple weeks. More BLM & Jihad, but a ‘macro’ item coming up.

Likely involving Turkey or Israel or Russia, in descending order.