Thanks Timestax!
Posted on 06/27/2016 8:47:46 AM PDT by Maceman
The conservative blogosphere is lighting up again with accusations of polling bias against Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in his race against Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton. However, Trump supporters should avoid giving into this temptation to assume unfavorable results must be biased results. Clinton really is leading Trump, and by nearly 6 percentage points.
The blogospherian argument goes something like this: Clinton is leading Trump by 5 to 7 points in certain polls because the pollsters oversampled or over-weighted Democrats by about 5 to 7 points. If the polls are “corrected” to include fewer Democrats then the race is actually tied, they say.
For instance, one blogger argues that a recent CBS News poll inflated the number of Democrats in the poll, comprised of 28 percent Republicans and 35 percent Democrats. Citing one pollster’s calculation, she thinks party identification in the United States is closer to parity, with 28 percent Republicans and only 29 percent Democrats rather than a seven-point Democratic advantage. She reasons that if you erase the partisan gap that would erase Clinton’s six-point lead over Trump.
For Trump supporters, this is a tempting narrative to believe. But this simply isn’t so. The fact is there just are more Democrats out there than Republicans, and this has largely been the case at least since the New Deal. That obviously doesn’t mean Democrats always win, but it’s unwise to assume a pollster is biased because its sample included more Democrats than Republicans.
(Excerpt) Read more at thefederalist.com ...
“For Trump supporters, this is a tempting narrative to believe. But this simply isn’t so. The fact is there just are more Democrats out there than Republicans, and this has largely been the case at least since the New Deal. That obviously doesn’t mean Democrats always win, but it’s unwise to assume a pollster is biased because its sample included more Democrats than Republicans.”
There aren’t 12% more Dems than Reps.
If all the Democrats and Republicans who voted in 2012 vote in 2016, Hillary! will win. Trump wins if and only if he can get Republicans-who-stayed-home-in-2012, plus “independents” (read: old-fashioned Democrats) to the polls to vote for him. That is what the polls cannot predict, and at this point in the campaign, neither can we.
I like the false narrative that Hillary is winning. Her people already are not excited about getting to the polls, this will insure a Trump landslide.
There are more secret Trump supporters, but are fearful of being ill treated.
Meaning that the US >is< becoming an insane asylum.
I believe it. The power of Free Sh*t is strong.
At this point in 1980 I think Carter was up by 11.
And if he gets new voters, such as the people in the primaries that gave him more votes than any Republican in history.
Warning: Washington Post polls are junk surveys with major sampling bias issues
6-26-16 | Lowly sidebar mod
Posted on 6/26/2016, 3:12:05 PM by Sidebar Moderator
The Washington Post is actively trying to demoralize the Republican base to depress fundraising and recruitment and ultimately to suppress turnout in November by promoting their false narrative that Trump has no chance. Think about that before posting the same poll over and over from different sources. You know who you are.
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3443909/posts
this is about the margin of fraud. outside of flyover country, the urban areas are 100% fraud controlled. Absentee ballots, early voting, “voting assistance”, and news blackouts are designed to imply only one candidate is running for office.
“The fact is there just are more Democrats out there than Republicans, and this has largely been the case at least since the New Deal.”
Looking for citation.......
Can’t find one, but lecture away, Mr blogger.
Yep. Thing is that Democrats and liberals are turning the country over to them.
It’s dangerous to reweigh polls based on party identification. Reputable pollsters basically let D/R/I fall to where it falls. While I do not think the electorate will be D+12, it’s entirely possible that a D+6 or D+7 result is plausible. That’s where the electorate was when Obama was elected in 2008 and reelected in 2012.
Also keep in mind that polls are snapshots of the electorate. And these snapshots are generally registered voter polls, which generally favor the Democrats by a few points.
The data shows that Hillary! is up between 5-7 points right now. It’s way too early to be panicked about it, however. Not many pollsters have their LV screen tweaked yet.
Ideally, the electorate will shrink to D+1 or Even and Trump will win the election. The tipping point is in the D+2 or D+3 range.
Thanks Timestax!
I’m inclined to agree that at this point, Hillary probably has a legit 4-5 point lead, but I think polls showing a 10+ point lead are dubious.
That’s fine. This was never going to be easy and it was always going to be a long shot. If we’re going to lose, let’s go down guns blazing. Bombs away!
Don’t we know always to act like our guy (or gal) is down 20 pts? Work your butt off to see they’re elected! While I DO like Trump, it’ll be worth a lot of sweat to work to defeat Hillary! If she’s elected, I’m going to burrow in for 8 years.
No there are not significantly more Democrats than Replicans out there.
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