Economy: Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Jump To 1-Year High

Investors Business Daily ^ | 5/12/2016 | FRANCES M. ROBERTS/Newscom

[expat_panama]

Applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased last week to the highest level since February 2015, a sign that progress in the U.S. job market is moderating.

Initial jobless claims rose by 20,000 to 294,000 in the week ended May 7, a report from the Labor Department showed Thursday. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a decline to 270,000.

The figures signal a more modest recovery lies ahead...

...The labor market is looking pretty healthy and that’s going to continue.”

Claims Still Below 300,000

For 62 consecutive weeks claims have been below the 300,000 level...

...Continuing Claims

The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits rose by 37,000...

...Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings, and a sustained low level of applications has typically coincided with faster job gains. Layoffs can also reflect company- or industry-specific causes, such as cost-cutting or business restructuring.

A report last week showed that U.S. employers added 160,000 workers to their payrolls in April, the fewest since September and well below economists’ median forecast.

Another report from the Labor Department showed import prices rose 0.3 percent for a second month in April, largely reflecting a pickup in petroleum and food. While industrial supply costs increased, prices declined for consumer and capital goods made overseas.

[expat_panama]

You got to just love these headlines, that the economy is "unexpectedly" worse than we thought --as shown by jobless claims.  This goes over especially on FR threads:

• Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise, Labor Market Strengthens 08/14/2015
• Initial jobless claims unexpectedly jump to nine-month high  03/05/2015
• Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Climb to Four-Month High 01/15/2015
• U.S. weekly jobless claims rise unexpectedly (Unexpectedly) 09/11/2014
• JOBLESS CLAIMS UNEXPECTEDLY SPIKE  05/01/2014
• Jobless claims edge unexpectedly higher  04/03/2014
• Weekly Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise to 348K  02/27/2014
• Breaking News: Jobless claims rise unexpectedly to 379,000 12/19/2013
• Jobless claims unexpectedly rise, but still within 2013 range  05/30/2013

So for years jobless claims have been going up?  While that's true on the doom'n'gloom threads the actual claims record is the opposite:

--but lets not get upset about the good news, there will always be things elsewhere to be miserable about.  All I'm saying is that claims stats are a bad place to look when you don't want to feel good.

[JudyinCanada]

If something keeps happening all of the time, why is it so unexpected? I would think that good news regarding the jobs situation is what is unexpected at this point.

[Joe Brower]

[Salgak]

“Unexpected”. They keep using that word. I do not think it means, what they think it means. . .

[Tallguy]

Just reacting to the headline: at this late point in any administration it’s everyman for himself and the embarrassing stuff that was being kept under wraps begins leaking out.

[griswold3]

Contract employees are not eligible for unemployment.

[expat_panama]

Happy Friday the 13th!  Yesterday's stocks saw the NASDAQ drop a half % in rising volume --normally a distribution day but the IBD count stated pat as earlier "d-days" aged into oblivion.   More on today's markets (from Friday the 13th)

US Dollar: Up at 94.275. The US Dollar is up 147 ticks and trading at 94.275.

Energies: June Crude is down at 46.16.

Financials: The June 30 year bond is up 27 ticks and trading at 166.09.
Indices: The June S&P 500 emini ES contract is down 34 ticks and trading at 2050.25.

Gold: The June gold contract is trading up at 1275.50.  Gold is 43 ticks higher than its close.

This is not a correlated market.  The dollar is up+ and crude is down-  which is normal and the 30 year bond is trading higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The indices are down and Crude is trading lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading up which is not correlated with the US dollar trading up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don’t have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.

All of Asia traded lower.   As of this writing all of Europe is trading lower.

 Possible Challenges To Traders Today

–  Core Retail Sales m/m are out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is major.

–  Retail Sales m/m are out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is not major.

–  PPI is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is major.

–  Core PPI is out at 8:30 AM.  This is major.

–  Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment is out at 10 AM EST.  This is major.

–  Business Inventories m/m is out at 10 AM EST.  This is not major.

–  Revised UoM Inflation Expectations is out at 10 AM EST.  This is not major.

[JBW1949]

An employer is not responsible for your unemployment benefits if you are an independent contractor. While employees are always eligible for unemployment benefits if they are laid off, an independent contractor will only be eligible if they pay separately into the state unemployment fund.

[Opinionated Blowhard]

I’m surprised that we see “unexpectedly” in Investors Business Daily. They normally know better than to spin this type of BS for Obama.

[OttawaFreeper]

Gee and I thought that The One said that America is a better place now than when he graduated from college.

[Mouton]

One has to consider how many jobs there are to lose before those losing jobs is of any meaning. 300,000 lost from say a work force of 140 million is surely not as significant as 300K lost from a workforce 60% that large.

[Paladin2]

Unexpectly? It’s too early in the morning to Drink!...

[Paladin2]

Unexpectedly? It’s too early in the morning to Drink!...

[relictele]

Which explains 75% of the job listings

[expat_panama]

Contract employees are not eligible for unemployment.

That makes sense.

Unless of course if they'd been paying for the benefit all this time to the state so that they'd be eligible for the 'free money' when they'd be unemployed, then they'd be able to get back part of what they put in.  Let's face it.  This entire state mandated 'free unemployment insurance' that's 'paid for by the employer' is a scam.

[expat_panama]

unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased

Contract employees are not eligible

75% of the job listings

We need to understand what we're saying here:

• Claims are up; claims are bad 
• --so it means we're worse off.
• Claims don't include contractors, and contractors are an increasing portion
• --so it means we must not be as bad of as we thought.

.Y'all really want to be saying we're not so bad off?

[expat_panama]

If something keeps happening all of the time, why is it so unexpected?

Like the numbers in post#1 show, claims usually go down.  The only thing that "keeps happening all the time" is that us freepers just love these "claims rise unexpectedly" headlines (list in post #1).

[odawg]

Nice to see you highlighted the “unexpectedly” meme.

[relictele]

No, I’m saying the measuring sticks are anachronisms and the ones applying them are not honest brokers.

An army of Dem-sympathizing bureaucrats compiling statistics is a recipe for deceit. But even they can’t disguise market conditions.

[The Sons of Liberty]

Economy: Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Jump To 1-Year High

Why is it that since the 0bama regime came to power, everything is invariably "UNEXPECTED"? We learned a LONG time ago that the figures they announce in no way reflect the facts. Was the guy whose job is to fake the numbers to make the regime look better somehow off on vacation, and the [more realistic] unflattering numbers were unexpected?