Posted on 04/10/2016 8:52:03 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Of all the arguments against Donald Trump, the softest has been his poor prospects for victory in the general election. True, he has consistently polled worse against Hillary Clinton than have Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and virtually every other person who ran. But polls change. And if Trump were to win the Republican nomination, it would be such an earthquake that the political order might be transformed. Clinton, moreover, has huge vulnerabilities. She lacks many basic political skills, and she is a hostage to fortune—in both the usual way, as the heir to an incumbent president, and in the unusual one of being the subject of an FBI investigation.
Yet the electability argument against Trump is hardening, fast. He has a 67 percent unfavorable rating (per the Washington Post/ABC News poll), which would be the highest ever recorded for a major-party nominee, and a net favorable rating of minus-39 among white women and minus-31 among independents. Trump's numbers aren't just bad; they're the stuff of nightmares.
When you add up all of the data, there are four reasons to suspect Trump's chances in the general election are incredibly slim.
(1) The appeal of Trump was supposed to be that he would expand the electorate by bringing home white voters who didn't turn out for Mitt Romney in 2012. Looking at Trump's numbers among whites, it's not clear how he could do that—his favorability numbers are underwater not just among whites generally, but even among non-college-educated whites (where he's minus-7) and white men (minus-4).
But the Trump-wins-by-turning-out-white-Republicans theory breaks down fatally when you look at where Trump is with every other group. In order to claw his way into the poor position he's in with white voters, Trump has cheesed off every other demographic group: He's minus-53 with self-described moderates;
(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...
So...another attempt to manipulate the vote by making the ludicrous claim that someone who cannot even win the primary is more likely to win the general than the guy who has broad support and is even able to attract Democrats to vote for him in the primary. Yeah, that’s really credible.
The people have been electing him, obviously not the establishment.
I guess we will just have to see about that.
I’m thinking 2nd div is taking a bathroom break from post this nonsense.
That said, if he is nominated and doesn't make it to the White House, some of the Cruz fanatics around here will scream to their dying day that they TOLD us that he wouldn't win, and they sure knew better than the morons who thought Trump had a shot, etc.
They also said, monthly, that each month was to be the month Donald was dropping out.
These people are clueless.
Mitch McConnell: Why no, the Senate won’t pass a resolution affirming Cruz’s eligibility like it did for McCain
POSTED AT 2:01 PM ON JANUARY 12, 2016 BY ALLAHPUNDIT
Weakly Substandard and ClownHall.com have become parodies of themselves.
Mr. Last,
I’ll take my chances, Sparky.
Weekly Standard. Objectivity just ended.
Cruz is just unlikeable outside his congregation. He has zero chance against Hillary.
Time to think about about dropping out ...again!
Yeah! He’s racking up that unelectability score so fast with those measly 10 to 20 thousand person rallys that he may never get public acceptance. BTW, if he’s so unelectable, why are you all coming out against him? Hmmmm?
This analysis doesn’t mean diddly because it’s not a national election.
I’ve asked this many times of Cruz supporters and have never gotten anything but crickets. Assuming Cruz wins a contested convention on the 2nd, 3rd, whatever ballot, what is his path to 270?
The reps will need to retake OH, FL, VA and NV in the general, all states that went to Obama in 2008 and 2012—a tall order under the best of circumstances. Cruz came in a distant third in all four. In VA it was T+18. In FL it was T+29, In NV it was T+25, in OH it was K+34, T+23 over Cruz.
Will Rep primary voters feel disenfranchised if the frontrunner going into the convention doesn’t get the nomination? We have polling that suggests a third of Trump voters will stay home. Even if that number is greatly inflated it will only take a few percent in these four vital states, states where Cruz is already unpopular, to stay home, for Cruz to have no chance of winning.
If Trump is the nominee, he will lose in Utah. There is ample evidence in polling data to support this. Any GOP nominee who cannot win in Utah has no chance in the general. Say hello to President Hillary Clinton.
This is moronic. According to polls at this time in 1980, Reagan lost to Carter in a landslide.
I don’t see how these pundits can live with themselves. As an exercise in self-improvement, I recommend suicide.
Cruz: 13% in OH, 16% in VA, 17% in FL. All key battleground states. All rejected Ted Cruz.
I don’t think Cruzers really want to go to the “electibility issue”
Neocon drivel
Weekly standard is #nevertrump. Of course they want this narrative to stick. It won’t.
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