Posted on 03/30/2016 10:18:38 AM PDT by Antoninus
1. The process began with something like a seventeen candidates with about 10 being serious. With that number it is obvious that the vote would be fractured. But what is also obvious is that Trump set himself up as the one separate from all the rest and the primary has developed into a Trump/Not Trump contest. Even now, the combination of Cruz and Kasich easily beats Trump in the recent primaries. The point is, Trump is not that unbeatable force that you guys would like to believe.
2. If Trump gets to 1237 he will be the nominee. But if he does not he does not have the right of kings to be anointed. He has to get to 1237 just like every other nominee. If he can do it, more power to him. If he can't, I suspect that the nominee will be Ted Cruz. It is not dishonest or immoral. Republicans have played by these rules since the convention system was set up. Ronald Reagan lost to Jerry Ford by 170 votes, fought hard, but in the end held up Ford's hand in unity and fought with him in the Fall.
I would say that I don't like being called a “useful idiot” but that's ok. But again, the one way for your man to know he will win will be to have a majority when he comes into the convention. This is not who can get closest like horse shoes, it is who can get 1237. It is not dishonest. It is an orderly process. Again, thank you for disagreeing without being disagreeable. We are going to have to pull together after the convention to beat Hillary. One of our men will win and then we will have to work together.
I think it is possible. You said it was a fantasy. My point was that Hitlery is not Obama, minorities are not motivated, and the 5% or more voter fraud in the liberal bastions of Madison & Milwaukee will be curtailed by Photo ID.
That's not an answer. You think Cruz wins Wisconsin against Hillary?
I think it is possible. You said it was a fantasy. My point was that Hitlery is not Obama, minorities are not motivated, and the 5% or more voter fraud in the liberal bastions of Madison & Milwaukee will be curtailed by Photo ID.
Okay, it is true that there is a possibility. Elections do tend to turn on unforeseen and unpredictable events. And there is some truth that Peak Obama passed in 2008, and 2012 was a sliiiiight improvement for Romney over McCain.
I'll have to look for it but last summer/fall we ran the numbers on the black vote and trends and compared to Trump who is getting double Romney numbers.
This goes to a key difference between Trump and Cruz. Trump is positioned to cash in on the most valuable voter of all, direct (D)ummycrat crossovers ( those who definitely voted last election for Dumbo ). Such voters are 2x as valuable as you and I because we produce the expected (R)+1 but crossovers produce (D)-1 (R)+1 for net 2. This is how you quickly close the gap and win your 52-48 56-44 purple states ( and quite possibly in the case of Trump put lighter "blue" states like NH, OR, WA within striking distance ).
Now the recently less enthusiastic black vote could stay home or switchover, this is a big deal. My educated guess is they stay home for Ted and hopefully switchover for Trump who is assembling an impressive and unprecedentedly large team of black endorsers. I'll pull these together in a future post but it is a safe bet they will make a mark. I only wish Alan Keyes didn't box himself into the GOPe defender box this cycle. Ah well.
About Wisconsin. My quick pick is it goes "blue" with either candidate most likely, but with the caveat of Trump possibly carrying Michigan and dragging Wisconsin along for the ride, this is because I suspect he will be up your way very often if he gets the nomination. Michigan is vital and is close to flipping and for him it is mere minutes away as the crow 757 flies. Cruz, though? In an on-year election which Scott Walker probably couldn't even win, I seriously doubt it. I'll reduce the hyperbole from "fantasy" to "extremely unlikely". IMHO of course.
( At least you got it better than my state of NY. Madison may be a liberal cesspool but can't hold a candle to my NYC and its 85-15 tendencies. Few places can top it. )
You might not have seen this ...
Meet Wisconsin’s First Pro-Trump State Legislator
He's up in the Northwest and says it is Trump country amazingly. My friends in Eau Claire told me they got killed in the 2008 crisis ( worked in an extremely high tech industry ) and they also are seeing Trump signs. Further down my guess is Madison will go lesser evil and lean slightly either Kasich or Trump. The Burbs probably Cruz as has been the pattern. Milwaukee and Green Bay will be key decider's and I have no clue. It should be very interesting indeed next Tuesday. Kasich is definitely the wildcard, and likely the fly in Cruz's ointment.
What are your predictions if any, for Madison, Milwaukee, Green Bay and Eau Claire? No bet or anything, just curious for data points from locals. Oh, and I was also wondering if Minnesota has bled in and corrupted Wisconsin the way that VT and MA has infected NH.
That’s good for Goldman Sachs.
Whatever. Here in Wisconsin these are the numbers that matter:
1) 70% of Wisconsin Voters Hold Unfavorable View - Among all Wisconsin respondents, 70% had an unfavorable view of Donald Trump. This is up from 59% in January and 67% in February. If Donald Trump thinks he could challenge Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin, he'd have to reverse the overwhelming negative impression among voters.
2) 77% of Women hold Unfavorable View - Donald Trump's tone and behavior on the campaign trail have contributed to a huge deficit with women. In Wisconsin, this is no different. 77% of Wisconsin women respondents say they have an unfavorable view of the Republican front runner. This is up from 66% in January and 72% in February. You can't win a state when 3/4's of women don't like you.
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Now the recently less enthusiastic black vote could stay home or switchover, this is a big deal. My educated guess is they stay home for Ted and hopefully switchover for Trump who is assembling an impressive and unprecedentedly large team of black endorsers.
Now you are in fantasyland. In Wisconsin, black voters are the most reliably Dem voting bloc. Further, the April 5 ballot will also feature nonpartisan general for City of Milwaukee Mayor and Milwaukee County Executive. And Donald has made ZERO attempts to connect with the African-American community. There will be no black crossover.
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About Wisconsin. My quick pick is it goes "blue" with either candidate most likely, but with the caveat of Trump possibly carrying Michigan and dragging Wisconsin along for the ride, this is because I suspect he will be up your way very often if he gets the nomination. Michigan is vital and is close to flipping and for him it is mere minutes away as the crow 757 flies. Cruz, though? In an on-year election which Scott Walker probably couldn't even win, I seriously doubt it. I'll reduce the hyperbole from "fantasy" to "extremely unlikely". IMHO of course.
Put down the crack pipe. There is ZERO impact of Michigan on Wisconsin. The 2 states share nothing but a border. I will say that the Michigan UP and Western (lower) Michigan are more like Wisconsin. Donald cannot win in Wisconsin in a general election. In addition to the poll numbers cited above:
1) 52% of Republicans Hold Unfavorable View - Even as Donald Trump claims the mantle of Republican front runner, 52% of Wisconsin Republicans have an unfavorable view for the New York billionaire. It's hard to say how many wouldn't vote for Trump in a general election, but having a majority of your own party dislike you in a key state like Wisconsin spells obvious trouble for Trump. Beating up on Scott Walker, who has an 80% approval rating among Wisconsin Republicans, probably won't help.
2) He Loses Big to Hillary Clinton - Despite his insistence that he leads Hillary Clinton in all the polls (obviously untrue), he continues to lose badly to Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin. In the latest poll, Clinton beats Trump by ten points, the same margin she led Trump in the February poll. In January, Clinton led Trump by 9. If Donald Trump is the nominee, he is not going to beat Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin. The same poll shows Cruz slightly leading Clinton in Wisconsin.
(At least you got it better than my state of NY. Madison may be a liberal cesspool but can't hold a candle to my NYC and its 85-15 tendencies. Few places can top it.)
Obviously you have never visited the People's Republic of Madistan.
What are your predictions if any, for Madison, Milwaukee, Green Bay and Eau Claire? No bet or anything, just curious for data points from locals. Oh, and I was also wondering if Minnesota has bled in and corrupted Wisconsin the way that VT and MA has infected NH.
No, Minnesota has not bled into and infected WI, nor has Illinois bled into WI. It is true that Hudson, WI has become a bedroom community for the Twin Cities and southern Kenosha County has become a bedroom community for Chicago. But those transplants have come largely from the Midwest and have more conservative, more Republican Midwest values. Obviously, a Midwest Republican is far more conservative than a Northeast Republican. In fact, along with the 2000 & 2010 redistricting (thank God the legislature was GOP-controlled then), Wisconsin's 1st congressional district (now represented by Speaker Paul Ryan) has changed from a blue-collar union Dem district to a swing mixed district to a solid Republican exurban district.
Returning to the primary, Donald Trump's Wisconsin support in February was 30% and he led by 10 points. In March, Donald Trump's support was 30% and he was down by 10 points. Cruz has consolidated the anti-Trump vote in Wisconsin and Trump has failed to expand his base of support.
In the Madison area (the 2nd congressional district), most Republicans are government or university management employees and are led by the lobbyists class as Establishment GOP. Kasich will carry WI-2.
The 3rd congressional district along Wisconsin's "West Coast" (inclduing Eau Claire & LaCrosse) is a moderate lean Dem district. Kasich and Trump are competing for the lead there.
The only CD that I see Trump winning is the Wisconsin Northwoods 7th District. There are no major cities, no TV or radio markets. While it leans GOP, the largely disaffected white voters are susceptible to the Trump message.
In the vote-rich region of southeast Wisconsin, Cruz is cleaning up. In Milwaukee County, Cruz leads Trump by 38 points. In the important suburban counties around Milwaukee, Cruz leads Trump by 16 points. And up in the battleground of Green Bay and the Fox River Valley, Cruz leads Trump by 9 points. If Trump can't win in these regions, he can't and won't win Wisconsin.
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