Posted on 03/21/2016 10:19:26 PM PDT by Steelfish
Donald Trump Will (Almost Certainly) Never Be Elected President. Here’s Why.
By Greg Sargent March 21
With Donald Trump steamrolling towards the GOP nomination, the political chatter is increasingly focused on whether Trump could win a general election by making surprise inroads into states in the industrial Midwest. Many Democrats and nonpartisan observers see this as probably the only plausible (if that’s even the right word for it) path for Trump, who might do this mainly by running up huge numbers among white voters — particularly blue collar whites.
But a new examination of the demographics and projected voting patterns in some of the key Rust Belt states underscores just how unlikely this really is.
snip)
Given the overall margins that Obama won these states by — which are in some cases quite large — Trump would have to improve enormously on Romney’s performance among blue collar whites:
— In Michigan, where Romney beat Obama by 53-45 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 62-36, an improvement of 18 points.
— In Wisconsin, where Romney beat Obama by 50-48 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 56-42, an improvement of 12 points.
— In Pennsylvania, where Romney beat Obama by 56-42 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 63-36, an improvement of 13 points. — In Ohio, where Romney beat Obama by 57-41 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 60-38, an improvement of six points. (This is lower than the others because Ohio was much closer overall; but even six points is a pretty sizable improvement.)
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Cruze or Lose.
Thanks Trumpkins (sarc) if the Donald becomes the republican standard bearer
Didn’t this guy play Darrin Stevens on Bewitched?
In which states does Cruz do better than Romney?
We already know Trump is doing just fine with blue collars
Don’t be such a goof, the same assumptions apply to Cruz.
I love these arguments.
Trump with between one and two million more votes than his competitors, is undetectable.
Bwa ha ha ha ha ha...
https://youtu.be/dN1IXDrXgV0 This video would destroy Teddy in a week after being made national. AND he when asked, he did not disavow this American Taliban Lunatic, friend of his.
So no, thank you Ted for nothing. As usual.
From HotAir.com
Emerson poll: Hillary tops Trump by 17, Sanders beats Trump by 19 — in MARCH 18, 2016
BY ED MORRISSEY
Looking ahead to the general election, the two Democrats do equally well in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. Clinton (55% to 36%) and Sanders (53% to 36%) lead the reality show star by 19 and 17 points, respectively, while Cruz loses to Clinton by 31 points (61% to 30%).
The MoE on the full survey is a much more reasonable 3.5% on a sample of 768 likely general-election voters, so these numbers are a little more solid. The only bright spot for Trump in the general-election numbers is that Cruz does worse at 61/30, but that’s a cold comfort in a general election, where Electoral College votes are winner-take-all.
“Almost Certain.”— Self contradictory.
should be: no way in hades
Just look at the numbers!
Looking ahead to the general election, the two Democrats do equally well in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. Clinton (55% to 36%) and Sanders (53% to 36%) lead the reality show star by 19 and 17 points, respectively, while Cruz loses to Clinton by 31 points (61% to 30%).
The MoE on the full survey is a much more reasonable 3.5% on a sample of 768 likely general-election voters, so these numbers are a little more solid. The only bright spot for Trump in the general-election numbers is that Cruz does worse at 61/30, but that’s a cold comfort in a general election, where Electoral College votes are winner-take-all.
Is anyone gonna remember to rub this guy’s nose in this column after Trump is inaugurated?
I hope so.
No.
Trumps negatives 65% are insurmountable.
Trump will Trumple Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, or whatever poser they put against him. Hillary will be submarined, that is why all the talk of a Republican fight on the convention floor to hide the truth of the one that is coming for Democrats.
He's using Trump to play Romney...Who's playing the Obama part in his little stage act?
The DNC Is About to Coronate Donald Trump:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/musa-algharbi/the-dnc-is-about-to-coronate-donald-trump_b_9462374.html
So your teddy is losing by 30 points but teddy is still the better choice. Do you live in Bazarro World?
This is like a weekly thing now by the media, “Why Tump will never win” and then he gives a Reagan-esque speech like this one and he polls even higher.........
The guy is going to be POTUS, absolutely no doubt in my mind now whatsoever for the simple fact he speaks the truth.
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