Posted on 03/16/2016 1:46:27 AM PDT by goldstategop
Despite his loss in Ohio, Mr. Trump is positioned to make a serious run at earning an outright majority of delegates and avoid a contested convention.
His success in winner-take-all Florida — worth 99 delegates — was enough to push Marco Rubio out of the race. The consequences of the departure are not too significant: Mr. Rubio was already reduced to around 10 percent of the vote, or maybe less, by the time he lost his home state, Florida, by a 19-percentage-point margin.
It was the scale of Mr. Trump’s win that was impressive and telling. He won 46 percent of the vote in Florida and carried every county but Miami-Dade, Mr. Rubio’s home county. He did it in a closed primary, where only registered Republicans are permitted to vote, a format that was thought to put Mr. Trump at a disadvantage.
Mr. Trump’s large vote share in Florida was a pattern throughout the night. He got at least 39 percent of the vote in every contest except Ohio, where he faced its strong governor, John Kasich. The higher share of the vote for Mr. Trump is important because it’s the sort of tally that would easily allow him to win a three-way race.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Big Donald.
Boobio buried in the rubble of a towering defeat.
The New York Times is humbled. Is this a conversion on the road to Damascus?
TRUMP 2016
Closed primary?
Well another talking point goes into the trash.
Yes what will the peanut gallery here do now? Insufferable Cruz supporters. Ted Cruz I really don’t dislike, he maybe a good addition to the ticket, his supporters,..glib, arrogant, obnoxious and condescending. Nothing like a good ole mudhole stomping to humble the smug. That being said I expect copious “Cruz still has a chance and Trump sux” threads by 2ndDivisionVet, CinncinatusWife and the usual suspects for no other reason but to irritate. I wonder how long Jim Rob wll have to suffer them. I expect some users disappearing after the next few months, douchebaggery not to be confused with thoughtful debate not suffered well here.
Amen. Idaho Ted should drop out.
People better get up and smell the coffee....Cruz wins the WHITEST states. Other than his home state (and only God knows how those broke down), he can only win very white states with a high percentage of religious voters.
In a general election, this is landslide loss territory.
Won Hipanics everywhere except in Cuban Miami Dade.
In MO, he won all except a pocket in the central/east and a few counties on the western border, plus Cape Girardeau-—where David Limbaugh go out the Cruz vote.
And it’s expected that you tag people if you’re going to mention them. You may want to look at your own post to find the vitriol.
Cruz can legitimately hope for UT, ID, and a fight in AZ. I suppose ND, SD, MT, and NE are possible but if any portion of these delegates go Trump, he has it.
Last I saw Trump led in OR, WA, and CA.
That leaves the NE: NY, CT, RI, PA, then the Atlantic coast DE and MD, plus WV, WI,
Trump should win the NE, DE, MD and WV.
Cruz’s only hope of wins is in the Great Plains and Mountain States where he is strongest.
Let's say it's 1125, or 112 short of the magic 1237 number. That leaves 1347 out of the total 2472 delegates who are not committed to Trump. Rubio right now has 168; he's not getting any more, maybe a couple more tops, so let's say 170 total for Li'l Marco. Kasich has 138 now; let's give him the benefit of the doubt despite his polling everywhere outside of Ohio and say he more than doubles what he has now, for a total of 276. Plus there are 5 each won by also-rans Bush and Carson, and one for Paul). That's 457 total.
Subtract that 457 non-Trump and non-Cruz delegates from the 1347 who are not committed to Trump on the first ballot, and you get 890 left for Cruz. Maybe Kasich does a little better or worse, maybe Cruz does a little better or worse, but it doesn't matter for the math purposes.
So no one wins on the first ballot. Kasich and Cruz are still in it; where do Rubio's now freed 170 delegates go after the first ballot? Shifting to Cruz (or to Kasich obviously) en masse would do nothing; if they all went to Cruz, he'd still only have 1060. Either all of Kasich's 276 and Rubio's 170 would have to shift to join Cruz's 890, or all of Cruz's 890 and Rubio's 170 would have to shift to join Kasich's 276.
That's a tall order, and you can't count on en masse delegate shifting. These aren't lemmings, they are people. Trump would still seem to be in the best position because he just has to peel off 112 somehow. Where does he look? IMHO Cruz's 890. Trump has to start working now to make those connections, so when/if the time comes, things will fall into place.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, and then you win.
And then Glenn Beck foams at the mouth, cries, and spends the weekend with a tub of ice cream.
I really do wonder how the establishment will become unhinged if Trump goes all the way.
I think a significant part (not all) of the Republican establishment will at least get to the bargaining stage by the convention (if Trump is short a few delegates).
There will be deals to be done, and Trump loves to do deals.
Lock the parties in a room, serve them lots of bad pizza, and don’t open the door until the deal is done.
Simple.
Good analysis post 13
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