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Cruz's Path to Victory: The Math and Science
Conservative Review ^ | 3/10/2016 | Daniel Horowitz

Posted on 03/14/2016 8:43:15 PM PDT by JediJones

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This article has the kind of real delegate math and analysis that most of the media is too stupid to figure out. The full article has many more hard stats and numbers on where and how Cruz wins.
1 posted on 03/14/2016 8:43:15 PM PDT by JediJones
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To: JediJones

I actually saw a pretty convincing video explaining why Cruz has almost no mathematical chance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqpHTFJO4mE


2 posted on 03/14/2016 8:45:58 PM PDT by bramps (It's the Islam, stupid!)
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To: JediJones
Cruz's Path to Victory: The Math and Science

Kiss the gopE ring, which cruz has already done....repeatedly! It's up to rove now.
3 posted on 03/14/2016 8:47:27 PM PDT by JoSixChip (Ted Cruz (R-Goldman Sachs) - He's creepy and he's kooky, mysterious and spooky)
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To: JediJones

Ted Cruz sides with leftist BLM mobs. After tomorrow, he’s finished.


4 posted on 03/14/2016 8:48:40 PM PDT by 20yearsofinternet (Border: Close it. Illegals: Deport. Muslims: Ban 'em. Economy: Liberate it. PC: Kill it. Trump 2016)
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To: JediJones

This is stupid.

If it weren’t for Texas, Cruz would already be in Rubioland.


5 posted on 03/14/2016 8:48:45 PM PDT by Disestablishmentarian (.)
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To: JediJones

“.polls have consistently shown that Cruz would beat Trump head-to-head in almost every state..”

Where are those polls?


6 posted on 03/14/2016 8:49:04 PM PDT by JPJones
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To: JoSixChip

Pipe dream...


7 posted on 03/14/2016 8:49:13 PM PDT by neverbluffer
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To: JPJones

Same NBC/WSJ polls that said Cruz would win South Carolina. :D


8 posted on 03/14/2016 8:50:22 PM PDT by 20yearsofinternet (Border: Close it. Illegals: Deport. Muslims: Ban 'em. Economy: Liberate it. PC: Kill it. Trump 2016)
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To: JediJones

This is all based on this dudes ridiculous assumption that Cruz wins NC, IL, and MO?


9 posted on 03/14/2016 8:51:48 PM PDT by tatown (Cruznoccio - A Washington DC Production)
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To: JediJones

I could hit lotto tomorrow too. It is mathematically possible. I probably won’t. Cruz probably won’t either.


10 posted on 03/14/2016 8:52:43 PM PDT by jospehm20
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To: Disestablishmentarian

Will Texans remember in 2018 that their sitting Senator omitted mentioning he was Canadian when he ran in 2012?


11 posted on 03/14/2016 8:52:43 PM PDT by ASA Vet (Jus Soli + Jus Sanguinis = NBC)
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To: ASA Vet

I will.


12 posted on 03/14/2016 8:53:26 PM PDT by jospehm20
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To: JediJones

Numbers are a bit one-sided for Cruz in place like California and Washington State. Of course it is unlikely that Trump wins all 95 delegates in New York based on the way delegates are assigned.

But the worst assumptions are in the winner-take-all states of Maryland and Pennsylvania. I think those go for Trump and, if so, that gives him 1,096 and Cruz 1,130 assuming all of the other numbers are correct.

There are some other numbers that don’t make sense like the calculation for North Carolina. He gives Cruz 36, but that would mean Cruz gets 50% of the vote in North Carolina tomorrow, highly unlikely.

If Trump loses Ohio tomorrow, every delegate becomes important. Trump would need to dominate in every race from here on to win the nomination outright. Cruz could mathematically win, but he would have an even narrower lane than Trump does.

But, at the end of the day, the establishment has no chance on a first ballot win. If Trump and Cruz both end up short, they HAVE to work together to make sure that there is no contested convention.


13 posted on 03/14/2016 8:55:56 PM PDT by Anitius Severinus Boethius (www.wilsonharpbooks.com - Sign up for my new release e-mail and get my first novel for free)
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To: JediJones

14 posted on 03/14/2016 8:56:01 PM PDT by Bratch
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To: tatown

Cruz ending up with that 300 or so lead over Trump at the end is based on that. The author mentions in the article how Cruz has room to lose more than these predictions and still come out ahead of Trump into the convention.

More of the media every day is on board with the idea that we are heading to a contested convention one way or the other. Only the liberal media outlets are sometimes still pushing the idea that Trump is the inevitable nominee, because they are salivating at the idea of Hillary getting to run against such a weak opponent.


15 posted on 03/14/2016 8:57:49 PM PDT by JediJones (TRUMP 6/18/2012 on Fox News: "We have to show some compassion. We just can't throw everybody out.")
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To: JediJones

You sound like Loyd Christmas when Mary Swanson tells him the odds of her dating him are one in a million, and Loyd says “So you’re saying there’s a chance!”


16 posted on 03/14/2016 8:57:59 PM PDT by usafa92 (Trump 2016 - Destroying the GOPe while Making America Great Again)
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius

I’m on board with the idea of Kasich winning Ohio as being BETTER for Trump. That means Kasich stays in with his “I don’t care about the math” mantra and helps hand states like Pennsylvania to Trump. We’ll keep seeing that 40-30-30-ish split with Trump on top. Kasich staying in would ensure that Trump has a lead over Cruz going into the RNC. Kasich doesn’t seem to understand the concept of winner-take-all states...which makes it hard to believe he really has any idea how to balance a budget like he claims.

Unfortunately, Hugh Hewitt signaled this weekend that Kasich is the establishment’s new “not Trump.” By pushing Kasich instead of Cruz, the establishment’s greed to get exactly the candidate they want will make it much more likely Trump is the top delegate earner and nominee.


17 posted on 03/14/2016 9:02:44 PM PDT by JediJones (TRUMP 6/18/2012 on Fox News: "We have to show some compassion. We just can't throw everybody out.")
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To: JediJones

They attack Trump (not Cruz) because they fear him. Trump will beat Hillary like a rented mule.


18 posted on 03/14/2016 9:03:40 PM PDT by tatown (Cruznoccio - A Washington DC Production)
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To: JediJones

If you use this term...”to go man-a-mano “ You have lost the argument.


19 posted on 03/14/2016 9:05:13 PM PDT by Walkingfeather
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To: JPJones

“.polls have consistently shown that Cruz would beat Trump head-to-head in almost every state..”


Cruz is losing Evangelicals to Trump head to head. The idea Cruz is going to win the rest of electorate head to head when he’s losing Evangelicals to Trump is a day dream.


20 posted on 03/14/2016 9:07:31 PM PDT by lodi90 (Clear choice for Conservatives now: TRUMP or lose)
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