Posted on 03/07/2016 3:40:27 AM PST by HomerBohn
-Now that we have assured the Iranians of a path to nuclear weapons, how does that affect the ambitions of the Saudis?-
The Saudis have strongly implied they simply bought Pakistani nukes. There has been no denial on the part of the Pakistanis. Once Iran has the bomb they will use the estimated 30-50 thousand mines to block the Saudis in. Without the constant cash from oil sales the Saudi regime, which pays its citizens for simply not revolving, will collapse. This is the genesis of the Syrian revolt. Saudi Arabia wanted a pipeline to the Mediterranean. But Obama abandoning Iraq and then meddling in Syria has stymied that plan. The Saudis probably will not use nukes first, but as the regime becomes less stable they probably will. I have always thought that the first use by Muslims will be against other Muslims.
-Question: Do the rulers of Saudi Arabia defer to the religious leaders of Saudi Arabia as a political necessity or out of devotion to Islam?-
The Saudi king is the titular head of Islam. What he says goes. However, what he says had better conform to the broad view of what other Muslims think or he will be assassinated. One telling example of the hypocrisy occurred when a Saudi official who was advising suicide bombing against American troops got home one day to discover that his son had left a note saying he was off to Iraq to martyr himself. Dad got on the phone and had the secret police arrest his son before the boy could cross the border. Suicide bombing is for the unwashed masses, not the elite princes. This was widely publicized at the time and probably did not sit well with the masses. There must be a lot of pent up resentment which is only held at bay by the state paychecks.
-Would you agree that the Saudi Royal family knows it has an expiration date on the Arabian Peninsula and is the reason they are so heavily invested in global real estate, particularly in Switzerland and other perceived safe-havens?-
There are thousands of princes. Some will flee. Some are already living abroad. Some will probably try to stay and fight it out. After the fall, assuming a strong man government comes to power, the princes who fled will face legal action as the new government attempts to collect the stolen wealth. Most of the world, probably hungry for oil, will cooperate. Also, depending on what sort of government comes to power, the princes may be hunted down like Stalin hunted Trotsky.
-What will the collapse look like?-
Some will flee. Some will fight. Some of the army will remain loyal but large portions will join the rebels. It will look very much like Syria, but without a Russia or Turkey it will be less active and shorter than other civil wars in the region. Likely, Iran will occupy and massacre large portions of the populace. There is not much to eat there so starvation will be the rule.
The Saudis would be deposed within a year of their stopping support of radical mosques and schools. They need SOMEPLACE to send the radical clerics who graduate from their Islamic universities every year.
The Saudis export radical Islam in order to buy time for themselves -- and they are running out of both cash and time.
Radical Islam would collapse without cash support. You think the radical Imams in the mosques work a real job to make money (or COULD work a real job)? You think the congregation could support the mosque and imam by their own tithes?
Take away the money, the money that supports the mosques, the Western welfare money that lets illiterate Third Worlders survive in the West, and radical Islam would collapse quickly.
So many nations have all their eggs in one basket.
How ironic that we have so much oil that prices are plummeting worldwide. For decades, the alarmists have been telling us we were going to run out of oil by 1990, or 2005, or 2020, and that we better start building windmills and riding bicycles.
Yes, the same people who are warning us now about ‘global warming’
Like the difference between a breeze and a hurricane?
“The Saudis would be deposed within a year of their stopping support of radical mosques and schools. They need SOMEPLACE to send the radical clerics who graduate from their Islamic universities every year.
Radical Islam would collapse without cash support. You think the radical Imams in the mosques work a real job to make money (or COULD work a real job)? You think the congregation could support the mosque and imam by their own tithes?”
Sounds like a plan. There was a time when we needed saudi oil to keep our economy running so we tolerated Sauid supporting the spread of Wahhabism and OPEC price fixing oil at sky high prices. Our Presidents deferred to and protected them even after their nationals planned and executed 9/11. We fought wars in the M.E. that cost American lives, money and our reputation in the region to protect them.
We no longer need Saudi oil so its time to let the House of Saud come to an end. The only problem is what to use to counter Iran. Iraq under Saddam did that nicely but that is gone thanks to Bush and Oburka.
Depending on the time of year, my celebration will either be an outdoor barbeque(pork, natch) or a nice holiday ham if I have to celebrate indoors. Either way, champagne will be served. I'll make more detailed plans when we get closer. In the meantime, popcorn.
Who gets Mecca?
My vote would be to nuke Mecca. Reduce it to a glowing hole in the sand.
Essentially, Saudi Arabia runs on institutionalized bribery. They need cold hard cash to keep the population in line, to keep the ever-growing royal family rich and happy, and to make sure everyone is doing their job. It’s not like what you see in most Western nations, where much of the population has a misplaced sense of civic duty.
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