Skip to comments.Rick Santorum drops out of presidential race (also Paul)
Posted on 02/03/2016 11:30:55 AM PST by bgill
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“Paul and Santorum people are likely to wind up with Cruz”
Um, you guys were calling these two RINO GOPE “sell-outs” just a couple of weeks ago.
Why the hell would their supporters go to Cruz. Are they not the same?
Maybe Cruz can send out a message that they are now A-OK “true conservatives”?
While Santorum’s conservatism was called into question on several counts at Wednesday night’s debate, it was Romney’s attack on his endorsement of Specter that really seemed to sting the most.
The Specter endorsement has absolutely haunted Santorum for the past eight years. Nearly everywhere he goes, it’s the one thing he did as a senator for which the activist conservative base simply cannot or will not forgive him.
The Post’s Paul Kane wrote a piece on the endorsement in 2004, which provides some insight as to why the grudge remains:
Specter’s primary campaign offered the most obvious example of how Santorum has sought to put the work of the Republican Conference ahead of the ideological purity that his conservative supporters and his liberal detractors alike have come to expect.
Santorum, the third highest ranking Republican in the Senate leadership, makes no apologies for his decision to back Specter. Santorum said that once he made the decision to support his home-state colleague, there was only one way for him go about it -- full throttle.
Some conservatives argue that Santorum’s efforts on behalf of Specter went well beyond a general endorsement. They accuse him of actively undermining Toomey’s conservative supporters and, in the process, putting at risk Santorum’s normally strong ties to activists.
“He made it a crusade,” said Paul Weyrich, a doyen of the right and founder of the Free Congress Foundation. “He left no stone unturned. He went out of his way to try to prevent Toomey from winning.”
And conservatives’ hatred for Specter grew exponentially when he switched parties to become a Democrat in 2009 and gave his new party a 60th vote on President Obama’s health care bill.
Santorum's support was mostly social conservatives. That support most likely goes to Cruz.
Paul's support is mostly libertarians. Cruz has made a special effort to reach out to libertarians during the campaign. That support most likely goes to Cruz.
Seriously think Carson is out of steam. Figure that Fiorina, Christie, and Kasich would be out by now, but why is Gilmore still in?
Perhaps he will endorse his BFF Arlen Spectre...
I did not realize Huckabee had already quit.
I don’t know if Bush will drop without someone giving him a shove...LOL
He probably wants to get his money’s worth out of South Carolina. I think the fee to file there is around $40,000.
I don t see anybody dropping out that s going to up Trumps % much — if at all. Perhaps 2-3% bump from Carson, but Santorum, Huckabee, that’s going to split between Rubio and Cruz. Rand Paul s supporters are non issues.
Trumps heading into troubled waters that the current poll numbers don’t reflect. Coming in 2nd in Iowa shouldn’t be a handicap but Trump made it one for himself as he ll be derided by the media until he wins one. And it better be soon, like New Hampshire soon.
Don’t go all wobbly on us Trump or weird out like Perot. Adapt, improvise overcome.
Well, they aren’t billionaires like Trump...!
Add to that the fact that 57 to 60 percent of America hates Donald Trump, 57 to 60 percent of those without a candidate ain’t going to Trump.
All this should`ve happened before the Iowa caucuses and indeed, before Thanksgiving. What kind of an ego does Christie have to think he has a shot in hell?!
He was polling pretty well in NH, for awhile. Maybe Florida, too? But yeah, he's got as much chance as you and I do of securing the nomination.
I just think that he likes to read his name in the newspaper.
“Who will be next? Huckabee?”
Yes, he will drop out. Again.
Bush said on FOX News that he “was in it for the long haul...”
As for Huckabee and Santorum, combined they got only 2.8%. Simple math suggests that Rand supporters are much more important than Santorum and Hucks, because there are a lot more of them. As to where they will go: I think Rubio. Not sure why I think that, but I do.
Because Rand Paul voters are the least likely to actually show up and vote for anybody else.
Because even failed campaigns bring a message that wants to be aired and possibly heard. Some are just vane attempts, others are in earnest. I can't ever tell the difference.
If RCP averages hold (and they failed in Iowa, to be sure) here's the order they finish in:
I would say that Christie and Fiorina logically should quit at that point. Christie has a day job to go back to, should be easy for him.
Carson might want to hold on for a state with a larger black population, like South Carolina, but certainly could bow out after a humiliating last place finish in New Hampshire.
One would think that Bush finishing 5th in New Hampshire after finishing 6th in Iowa should be enough to finish him off, but I suspect he goes on South Carolina too.
I think anyone who has scored a win, place, or show in either of the first two contests sticks around: Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Kasich would, by this logic, remain semi-plausible candidates, and move on to South Carolina.
The large field has caused a slower than usual winnowing effect this year.
Cruz, Kasich, Rubio and Bush are clustered within +or- 1% OF 10.8%. Were the voters who went for Rand, Huck or Santorum to move decisively towards one of the tied-for-second crowd it would be a game changer. Rand had the most supporters of them in New Hampshire.
Bush seems least likely to get Rand voters. Kasich less so. I think Cruz and Rubio both have a good shot at picking them up. Cruz and Rand were buddies in the Senate before the campaign, and have a similar "insurgent in the Senate" backstory. Rubio's personality, somewhat happy and disarming, is more like Rands. It's hard for me to imagine Rand voters going to Trump, but they are both rebels, though Rand himself seems to really dislike Trump.
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