Posted on 01/31/2016 2:23:31 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Poor Hilly has finally hit the wall.
Seems Bill is too
Time to introduce Obie to the wall
Did they poll any of the TEN MILLION People who have gone to Trump’s events?
Did they poll any of the TEN MILLION People who have gone to Trump’s events?
Those of you that have known me for a long time, know that I like to be right more than anything else. I get paid to do this because I'm right more often than not (I've virtually predicted the right outcome of every meaningful election in Iowa since I started in the 2008 cycle). In order to do so that means I have to provide analysis that may not be what I prefer the outcome to be. I think I've proven time and time again I will do it, too, if I have to regardless of the consequences.
Another reason I'm right more often than not is because I don't go by top-line public polling, but a more holistic approach that includes factors you can itemize like grassroots energy and organizational infrastructure (donor/volunteer base, etc), and I've got sources who give me access to some of the best high-dollar internal data analytics out there.
This is often why my predictions aren't just right more often than not, but also different from the conventional wisdom almost always.
So now we have FOX as well as CNN producing polls this week that show 300,000 Iowans are voting in the Iowa Caucuses, and therefore Trump with a double-digit lead. Allow me to put those projected turnout numbers in perspective:
-- That's about a 200% voter increase from the highest Iowa Caucus turnout ever back in 2008.
-- The most voters we've had in a primary (which always has higher turnout) in Iowa this century is only 230,000. And our last U.S. Senate primary had only roughly 150,000 voters in 2014.
-- There are actually 11,000 fewer registered Republicans in Iowa this January than in January 2015.
Given those facts, I simply do not believe the projected turnout models in these polls. I have no idea why these polls have suddenly produced these massive turnout models in their weighting in the last week. Perhaps it's as simple as Trump has consistently polled lower in Iowa than everywhere else, and they're concerned with getting caught with their pants down come caucus night. I don't know. But there is absolutely zero evidence on the ground you're going to see a turnout that massive."
And regarding top line public polls and their history in Iowa, here's some history to remember:
- - In the final week of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, there were eight public polls released that had Hillary Clinton winning, and one even had John Edwards winning. Barack Obama's organization won by almost eight points, and out-performed the Real Clear Politics polling average by almost seven points.
-- In the final week of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, there were four public polls released that had Mitt Romney winning, and he lost by nine points. Mike Huckabee's organization out-performed the Real Clear Politics polling average by six points.
-- Back in 2004, the best John Kerry polled in any of the final Iowa Caucus polls was 23%. He won on caucus night with 37%.
-- No final public poll of Iowa back in 2012 had Rick Santorum higher than 18 percent (and that was only two of them), but on caucus night his organization out-performed the Real Clear Politics polling average by almost 10 points.
I cite these precedents as reasons why I'm giving the analysis I'm giving, and sticking with it despite the latest public opinion polls. That analysis is this -- the same people who typically vote in the caucuses will likely decide the outcome of this one. And in that case the best organization wins -- and the best organization belongs to Ted Cruz.
So if 300,000 people vote and these public polls -- that under-reported the size of the GOP wave in the 2014 midterms, and were off by 14 points in last November's Kentucky governor's election -- turn out to be right, I'll be the first one to admit I finally got one wrong.But I'll believe it when I see it.
Steve Deace has endorsed Ted Cruz for president.
I find that most people cannot even explain their own beliefs
There is a savage discontent out there and the answer is freedom
The Dems are effing up hard by trying to make us pups and I think the Don is too
Get off my lawn is what I say
Problem I see today is you can’t trust any of the polls. The media does most of them for their purpose.
If Cruz is nominated stand by for Justice Obama when Hillary wins.
Who is the candidate dropping the F bombs all over the place like he did on his TV show. It’s not Cruz, it’s Trump. Seems he can’t give a speech with out lacing it with profanity. And he is as mean and nasty as he played on TV.
If Cruz ever uttered a curse word the MSM would be all over it like flies on dog droppings. Yet they let Trump get away with it. Just as the did the Clinton’s.
Hillary is toast in the general election against Cruz.
With Trump, she has a good chance with so much material at her disposal.
“The truth is not for all men but only for those who seek it.†Ayn Rand
You assume everybody is as unforgiving as you. Trump 2016.
Whaatt? That girl is toast should be in jail for cackling while good men died
Ding dong the witch is Dead
Problem is obie is still in office and idiots love Bernie
Then folks want to go for a ride on the Donster
I seek in the desert
So Hillary will do worse against Cruz who can only get 16% of republicans to vote for him verses against Trump who has 36% of republicans voting for him. That doesn't make sense.
With Trump, she has a good chance with so much material at her disposal.
Wouldn't Cruz have that same advantage? Instead Cruz is having to make stuff up like Trump bulldozed a widow's house when he didn't.
There are 10 other GOP candidates that managed to reach the national stage 31 in total, but none of them were able to take advantage of "so much material at her disposal". Maybe this material you speak of is only in FBI files, that Hillary has access to, and not the rest of the candidates.
We already have heard all of Trump’s problems/faults so often here and in the MSM that we can recite them. The problem is that Cruz issues seem to just keep dribbling out so we don’t know them all. But Hillary and her goon squad will and he will be beaten unmercifully with them. I as a senior was offended by the “shaming letter”. But am also offended by Trump’s occasional language.
Both candidates are just imperfect men so Americans will hopefully decide who they want and not have it decided by fraud.
Hey I am an old submarine vet and I would not sail with this guy
He will get us all killed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-JA1ffd5Ms
And yet Trump is ahead in IA, NH, and SC. Plus, the overall ....
Maybe and good thought. It's my opinion that who among us knows and loves the very essence of Freedom better then Mr. Trump? At the point we are at, with the bought and paid for mouthpieces we have running for control of the free world, I'm ready to throw down with Donald. If he is anything other than what he says he is, then I am no worse off than where things are headed. Other than we get there sooner. May as well to that cliff today. The kids can start the healing after we slap everyone awake. Make America Great Again.
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