Will the market get Trump'd? (Would President Trump Be Good or Bad for the Economy)

CNBC ^ | Jan 21, 2016 | Turney Duff

[presidio9]

Trying to predict who will be the next president is a sport on Wall Street. Hedge funds and banks spend enormous amounts of money, time and resources on trying to get an edge on who will win. The 2016 president election will dramatically change the asset allocation and exposure of everyone's portfolio.

A few elections ago, when I was working on Galleon Group's trading desk, we spent all summer devising a game plan for each of the candidates: George W. Bush and Al Gore. We thought Bush would be great for health-care and defense stocks but Gore would be better for all other sectors. So we planned accordingly, even up to the recount in Florida.

In normal election years, it's much easier to quantify which candidates will be good for the market versus the ones that will weigh heavily on it. Typically it's like predicting the outcome of a bowling ball and a feather put on both sides of the scale — one will go up and the other down. But this is anything but a typical election year. There is - the Trump factor.

Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump on stage during his event at the Flynn Center for the Performing Arts on January 7, 2016 in Burlington, Vermont.

So, kiss your wife and then buckle up. 2016 is going to be one heck of a wild ride - like a pack of drunken Palins at a snowmobile party.

Would a President Trump be good for the stock market – and your portfolio? Let's break it down.

Would a President Trump be good for the stock market - and your portfolio? Let's break it down.

TRUMP SCORECARD: Bulls vs. Bears

Giving America the business

Donald Trump is a businessman who knows how to invest and grow companies - if he can turn those skills on the economy, it could help juice the recovery. This one goes to the - BULLS.

Made in the U-S-A

Trump wants to be the "jobs president," bringing more jobs back to the U.S. However, if his tough talk on Apple is any indication - he said he would force them to make all their products in the U.S., not China - that probably wouldn't go over well with investors, unless he starts talking about what incentives he would offer companies to do this. Right now, based on math, I have to give this one to the - BEARS.

Taxes

Trump wants to cut taxes for most Americans, which he says will be offset by reducing or eliminating most deductions and loopholes for the wealthy and bringing back corporate cash held overseas (offering a one-time tax rate on that of 10 percent). This one is - A DRAW.

De-fense

Trump plans on ramping up defense spending to combat ISIS. Beefing up defense has historically been good for the market. Good for the - BULLS.

China and Mexico

Trump has said that he will impose big tariffs on products coming in from China and Mexico, which could potentially help national pride. But ultimately, it would probably trigger a trade war. This one goes to the - BEARS.

The Palin factor

The stock market doesn't reward uncertainty. And, while being endorsed by Sarah Palin doesn't necessarily create uncertainty, having her on his ticket - or in his cabinet does. Palin has said she would like to serve as Trump's energy secretary - in order to do away with the department and give more control to states on energy policy. That is a lot of uncertainty. This one goes to the - BEARS.

You're f--

The Donald won't be able to use his tag line on Congress… "You're fired!" when things don't go his way. And even if Congress remains under the control of the Republican Party, he'll have a difficult time getting things done. This one goes to the - BEARS.

FINAL SCORE: Bears 4, Bulls 2

Trump is a businessman, which is encouraging for the market. But the only way for him to convince the market he's good for the economy - and America - is to provide more tangible numbers to his economic plans - not just sound bites.

Currently his campaign promises sound more like a drunk college senior at the bar discussing the future. It's grand, ambitious and there's something a tad bit endearing about it. But is it realistic?

[Joe Boucher]

Trump is a bid ness man
U.S. Could use a bid ness man who knows how not to let us get shafted like this quota boy seems always to do.

[ClearCase_guy]

For this writer, “the economy” means DJIA.

I think a lot of voters are thinking “the economy” means small businesses on Main Street.

If taxes go down, if regulations are cut, and if trade imbalances are mitigated, a lot of Americans will find themselves with money in their pocket. Perhaps that will help the DJIA too.

[hoosiermama]

From 1991. Testimony before congress containing economic problems
http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=trump+testifying+in+congress&view=detail&mid=7BA9E0B5C7F8128D18967BA9E0B5C7F8128D1896&FORM=VRRTAP

[jsanders2001]

ANYONE other than the current socialist traitor in chief will be better for the economy. One man has caused more problems than all of the other presidents combined.

[knarf]

It'd hang on his every word

"The market" is a witches and warlock's cabal steeped in superstition and "belief"

[BenLurkin]

like a pack of drunken Palins at a snowmobile party.

Nope. No bias there.

[Kenny]

Doesn’t help Donald in this article that he wants to go after hedge fund managers and wall street. I pray Trump can survive calling out all these crooks, dangerous territory.

[presidio9]

For this writer, “the economy” means DJIA.

Like a lot of guys I knew on Wall Steet, Duff was an average student who's uncle got him an entry-level job at Morgan Stanley. He was then in the right place at the right time for the hedge-fund boom, left Morgan for the buys side, and made huge commissions running a small fund through insider trading. Then he got addicted to coke, fired and went to rehab. He became unemployable when he relapsed and had blown all of his money (about $10mmm) so he did what any American does -he wrote a tell-all confessional. This got made into a TV movie, which got him hired by CNBC, despite having never demonstrated any expertise in the markets in his life.

Despite having had a 12 year head start, CNBC is now losing to FOX business because FOX hired away all of their legitimate talent and CNBC keeps replacing them with dorks who bring nothing to the table. I assume its because a few from the MSNBC crowed have infected the sister station and they operate from the position that everyone one Wall Street is a scumbag.

Techically this is true, I guess, but douchbags like Turney Duff typically don't last very long unless they get incredibly lucky. And then they crash and burn spectacularly when the luck runs out.

[Carry_Okie]

He liked the 2007 bailout.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

[2009 interview]

"....[Larry] KING: There are a lot of great topics. One of them is Barack Obama. In fact, the list at the back of the book on the topics, the number one is, "Barack Obama's election ushers in a different world."

How do you assess him?

[Donald] TRUMP: Well, I really like him. I think that he's working very hard. He's trying to rebuild our reputation throughout the world. I mean, we really have lost a lot of reputation in the world. The previous administration was a total disaster, a total catastrophe.

And, you know, the world looks at us differently than they used to. And I think he's trying to restore our reputation within the world. And he was handed a pretty bad deck of cards. I mean, he was given a pretty tough situation.

And I'm not saying I agree with everything he's doing. I do agree with what they're doing with the banks. Whether they FUND THEM or NATIONALIZE them, it doesn't matter, but you have to keep the banks going.".....CNN Transcript of interview