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Cruz in control in Iowa
The Gazette ^ | 12/27/15 | Erin Murphy

Posted on 12/27/2015 4:05:50 PM PST by VinL

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To: CatherineofAragon
"Actually, Cruz studied and adopted Obama's campaign."

Yes, he did.

He bought copies of the book written by Obama's campaign manager, passed them out to his staff, and said they were going to use everything that worked and throw away what didn't.

Makes me respect Cruz even more!

21 posted on 12/27/2015 5:18:14 PM PST by GraceG (Protect the Border from Illegal Aliens, Don't Protect Illegal Alien Boarders...)
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To: VinL

Let me assure every one here and I like Cruz. but he will never win Iowa like Santorum did. Trumpsters will flood those cauci like you can’t imagine. I fully expect Trump to win 45%. Then New Hampshire — then South Carolina - Then the nomination. They wanted “Winner take all” for bush — now they get “winner take all” for Trump. Let them eat okra.


22 posted on 12/27/2015 5:20:54 PM PST by WENDLE (Trump is not bought . He is no puppet.)
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To: GraceG

Exactly. ;)

I’d be willing to bet that he managed to improve on Obama’s strategy.


23 posted on 12/27/2015 5:29:35 PM PST by CatherineofAragon (("A real conservative will bear the scars...will have been in the trenches fighting."--- Ted Cruz))
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To: CottonBall

Not my area of expertise, but I think so.


24 posted on 12/27/2015 5:33:55 PM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, then to consent to wrong.)
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To: LS
The Cruz folks have the bar set pretty high I see. At this point, anything less than a smashing Cruz victory will be a crushing disappointment.

Frankly it doesn't matter to me whether Trump or Cruz wins Iowa. So long as the RINO candidates are bringing up the rear. I think both Trump and Cruz will get their share of delegates in Iowa.

What some don't realize is that over a year ago, six months before he even entered the race, Trump hired Chuck Laudner to run his Iowa campaign. Laudner is the same guy who engineered Santorum's victory there four years ago.

So I'm confident Trump is getting good advice and that his "ground game" is much stronger than some of the Cruz folks seem to think it is. I'm sure that Trump's "flying in like a rock star" rankles some of them and they are therefore looking for Trump to get his comeuppance in Iowa. But I fear they are setting themselves up for a fall if they think Trump is going to allow himself to get smoked.

Typically only 20% of the registered Republican voters show up for these caucuses. When Santorum won in 2012, he obtained LESS than 30,000 votes statewide. A typical Trump rally has between 7,000 and 15,000 people at a minimum and he's done at least a dozen of them already in Iowa. Probably more and certainly more in the weeks to come. If even 20% of those coming to rallies shows up for the caucus, Trump will easily eclipse the 30,000 votes Santorum got in 2012. Many of these will be net new voters that previously did not participate in caucusing.

So looking through the prism of previous turnouts and an energized evangelical base that produced surprise victories for Santorum in 2012 and Huckabee in 2008, it would appear Cruz is in very good shape indeed, as he appears to have locked up the evangelical vote in that state. What remains to be seen is how many NEW voters come out on caucus night. If Trump can bring a lot of new blood to the caucus precincts, we could see surprising results.

While Iowa is not strategically that important, it is a very good litmus test to see how many new voters Trump can bring to the polling places. People who in years past were disillusioned with the choices offered and so stayed home.

25 posted on 12/27/2015 5:37:29 PM PST by SamAdams76
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To: WENDLE
Let them eat okra

As long as they don't have to eat Oprah.
26 posted on 12/27/2015 5:39:56 PM PST by mkjessup (JimRob: "It's Trump or Cruz, all the others are amnesty pimps" And the man is RIGHT!)
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To: VinL
From the article....

...Cruz has probably put together one of the most sophisticated, organizational efforts this state has ever seen...... the best campaign operation among the 2016 candidates, frankly it's a textbook operation how to win a caucus campaign.......What Cruz planned is working precisely to his desire.....It's a very elaborate, very aggressive, very well informed grass roots swarming strategy.............. with endorsements from staunch conservative U.S. Rep. Steve King, social conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats and conservative radio host Steve Deace......

...THE BOOTS HAVE IT, AND MADE FOR WALKING THE TALK ALL THE WAY TO THE WHITEHOUSE!

27 posted on 12/27/2015 5:43:56 PM PST by caww
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To: VinL

That’s what he told us in NH in April, but I have to say, Trump’s campaign more closely resembles Obama’s 08 campaign in terms of social media than does Cruz.


28 posted on 12/27/2015 5:44:53 PM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: LS

Trump’s campaign more closely resembles Obama’s 08 campaign in terms of social media than does Cruz.

***********
I’m not up on social media, so I don’t know. I’ve read where Trump is doing many things that are not outwardly apparent, perhaps that’s the case.

What Cruz is doing has been easy to read and quantify, so one can make some projections. On the other hand, Trump may be all about stealth, and surprise everyone with a “hidden” organization.


29 posted on 12/27/2015 5:57:53 PM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, then to consent to wrong.)
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To: LS

No....not Romney....more like Reagan even though Reagan lost Iowa to Bush by just a 2% margin...Cruz studied that and wasn’t about to make Reagans mistake...which Reagan always thanked Iowans for giving him a swift kick in the pants which thereafter Reagan swept the South, which Cruz was building his foundation there while everyone was at the fair....


30 posted on 12/27/2015 5:58:29 PM PST by caww
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To: VinL

When I and others met with Cruz in March or Aoril he emphasized that he was doing the whole social media, entrepreneurial model and he specifically cited Obama’s 08 campaign. What he has, in fact, is a traditional Rove-type campaign. Now, that may be plenty-—but it is nothing like what he laid out.


31 posted on 12/27/2015 6:10:47 PM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: LS

Well, frankly, if you’ve met with and discussed the campaign with Cruz, you’re far more informed than I. My knowledge comes from the articles I read. In this article:

************

“Cruz has probably put together one of the most sophisticated, if not the most sophisticated, organizational efforts this state has ever seen,” said Dave Nagle, a three-term Democratic member of Congress and now a lawyer in Waterloo.

John Stineman, who led Steve Forbes’s presidential campaign in Iowa in 2000 and has worked 14 years as a consultant, described Cruz’s campaign as similar to the data driven, history making effort Barack Obama employed here in 2008 and 2012. “It’s a very elaborate, very aggressive, very well informed grass roots swarming strategy,” Stineman said.

******************

So, these guys say it’s like Obama’s campaign, but if Cruz told you he modeled it on Rove, I don’t doubt you.


32 posted on 12/27/2015 6:23:27 PM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, then to consent to wrong.)
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To: VinL

Just sounds to me like he changed between March and July. Not a big deal.


33 posted on 12/27/2015 6:30:34 PM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: WENDLE

Oh MAN, don’t do that!


34 posted on 12/27/2015 6:41:26 PM PST by Balding_Eagle ( (The Great Wall of Trump ---- 100% sealing of the border. Coming soon.))
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To: VinL
"Frankly it's a textbook operation how to win a caucus campaign," Gross said.

Caucuses seem un-American. You give your support openly and are lobbied to change your position. I don't like that. Better is the secret ballot.

35 posted on 12/27/2015 7:12:14 PM PST by montag813
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To: LS

Trump has 3x the Facebook likes and an astonishing 9 times the Twitter followers as does Cruz.


36 posted on 12/27/2015 7:18:35 PM PST by montag813
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To: SamAdams76; parksstp

you need to get in touch w freeper Parksstp. Compare notes on Iowa, it would provide great insight into the Caucas’

Thanks


37 posted on 12/27/2015 7:28:20 PM PST by CPT Clay (Hillary: Julius and Ethal Rosenberg were electrocuted for selling classified info.)
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To: montag813
Awe , but the caucus, how does that translate.
38 posted on 12/27/2015 7:30:27 PM PST by Irish Eyes
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To: A CA Guy

>>He needs to make a mountain out of a mole hill since most that win Iowa don’t get nominated that often.<<

Or, put another way, the last five winners of the Presidential election have won Iowa....


39 posted on 12/27/2015 8:22:26 PM PST by Norseman (Defund the Left....completely!)
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To: montag813

>>Caucuses seem un-American. You give your support openly and are lobbied to change your position. I don’t like that. Better is the secret ballot.<<

You’re describing the Dem caucus. The GOP uses a secret ballot and the ballot is cast without anyone knowing your position ahead of time and pressuring you to change it. At least that’s my understanding of it.


40 posted on 12/27/2015 8:29:27 PM PST by Norseman (Defund the Left....completely!)
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