Posted on 12/18/2015 1:48:25 PM PST by VinL
Go, Ted, go!
I got a call this morning from a pollster out of LV. I don’t know whose campaign because it was very short. Who was I voting for? Donald Trump. Oh, hum, what is your primary concern this election? Illegal immigration. Huh, okay. Thank you.
That’s a very good number for a state primary poll.
From an article about national polling:
“To be sure, there is some gain in sampling accuracy that comes from increasing sample sizes.
Using common sense and sampling theory, a sample of 1,000 people is most likely going to be
more accurate than a sample of 20. Surprisingly, however, once the survey sample approaches
500, 600, 700, or more, there are fewer and fewer accuracy gains that come from increasing the
sample size. Gallup and other major organizations use sample sizes of between 1,000 and 1,500
for standard surveys because they provide a solid balance of accuracy against the increased
economic cost of larger and larger samples. If Gallup were to use a sample of 4,000 randomly
selected adults each time it did a poll, the increase in accuracy over a well-done sample of 1,000
would be minimal, and for sample accuracy reasons, would not justify the increase in cost.”
Im getting that too. Cruz’s numbers do not reflect all the hyped plant stories. This isnt a hit on Cruz but rather an observation. Unfortunately he has picked up some endorsements from social conservative leaders and as we all know that’s the kiss of death.
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwwwww......what a lovely picture !
I know. People don’t realize, or don’t believe, that Cruz is not in the least concerned about Trump.
Cruz just wants to keep everyone out of his lane— conservative, evangelical, tea party. His view is that if he locks up his lane, he wins.
So, when it’s Cruz, Rush, Levin, Sessions Lee, King vs Rubio Fox Schumer NRO-— Cruz has had a good day.
Well don’t stop there, didn’t it boil down to Trump probably beats Hillary, Cruz probably not, and Rubio probably yes.
I came during the middle of that so didn’t hear who had written it. No wonder the author had such a hard time admitting Trump could win in a big way.
Yes. According to these polls, The Donald is doing really well.
The hard truth is that in every poll Trump is doing well. It is what it is. He’s going to be terribly hard to catch at this late date.
I doubt it. The 30% who like Trump are already for him. The 70% who don't want Trump are not likely to go over to him. More likely to go to Cruz or Rubio, who are the two who will probably be remaining.
Limited. He will pick up Bush and Rubio amnesty supporters, but that has an obvious ceiling. Trump still has massive, wait, make that huge lead.
Not sure what you are saying. Are you saying Rubio voters will go for Cruz because of Cruz saying that? Could be possible.
I’m saying that, of those candidates that IC Ken listed, Trump may have some chance of picking up Rubio voters more easily than from those others listed.
The national polls don’t tell us much at this point but the state primary polls do. I see a pattern that looks familiar.
A so-called moderate/liberal leads big, and so-called conservatives and moderate-conservatives are splitting the vote and trailing as the voters aren’t gravitating to any one candidate.
We know where this led in the last two presidential elections. This time it is working in favor of the wild card, or Trump card if you will. For now. Always have to say for now as polls are an ever-changing snapshot.
The most consistent thing about this campaign is Trump’s trajectory and position since he entered the race.
It is nice to see Cruz finally moving up though, and I wish him well. May the best man win.
Trump is a self made man.
He knows if he were wiped out financially tomorrow, he would be in business the next day making millions. That is his confidence and intuition. He knows if for some reason this does not work out, he can have fun working on his business making $500 million a year personally.
All the other candidates without exception even Cruz have never done anything else except suck on the government tit. Fiorina might be an exception. Not sure how she supports herself.
The point is that Trump knows if he does not follow the rules he is fighting paper tigers nothing more. The media world is not a real world of brick and mortar. It is a make believe world with very little reality in it. The political world of the establishment is not a real world of brick and mortar either. It is a world of lies and deceit designed to hide the political parasites who are in it for themselves.
Then comes Trump who rips holes in the paper tigers. His power is with his supporters and he is stumping every chance he gets to get more and more support.
He will tear Hillary to pieces to a point where she won’t be able to hide. Trump has X-ray eyes and amazing intuition that gives him unbeatable confidence.
I don’t think he’ll pick up Rubio’s. And I think the loner this goes, the better chance for Trump.
In fact, I’m ready for my predictions. Trump will run the table and will force the top people to drop out.
THey will coalesce around him. Why? Because he will bring them all together to do so.
He is not a divider. Maybe Bush will stay in, but I think if he wins the first three or four primaries, Cruz will support him. Carson too.
The only name that works is President Trump
Nope.
It means they are sure he loses to Hillary.
Most here are still thinking about this the wrong way - as if it's about "conservative" vs. "liberal", when it's not at all.
It's "globalists" vs. "patriots", or "Americans".
The GOPe is completely, totally committed to globalism, and, therefore, the end of America as she has existed before now. With Bush, or Rubio, or Kasich, or Romney (no, they haven't ruled him out yet), they get continued movement towards transnational integration. They get the same with Hillary.
For the GOPe, Bush or Hillary, either way they win.
They know patriots (Americans) are a strong majority. They know this by looking at 1972, 1980, and 1984.
After 1984, they came up with a brilliant strategy - fracture the patriot bloc with wedge issues - and it has worked.
Until now. Trump has them shi**ing their pants.
They know they can beat Cruz. It would be better for them, financially, to have the nominee be one of their own, but as long as they know Cruz means Hillary as POTUS, they will take him as a last resort.
Cruz surging is the new liberal equivalent of “It’s a quagmire” only this time saying it aint gonna make it so. Go Trump Go.
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