Posted on 12/14/2015 6:49:43 AM PST by Isara
Every show has an end. Just like "The Apprentice" - gripping the first few few seasons, tired and contrived in the last - Donald Trump's campaign is aging toward death, one reckless outburst at at time. Although the casual political junkie wouldn't know by the looks of most polls, the media fetish with The Donald and his cultish following.
With primaries a bit less than 50 days out, at this point, previously skeptical pundits have assumed not only that Trump is the front-runner in the GOP primary, but that there is no real contest. But while cable news is capitalizing off of kabuki theater, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has been backstage outplaying the entire GOP field.
In the modern ratings-based media world we live in, where candidates get attention off fundraising numbers and sensationalism, we often miss the politics brewing below the surface. Even seasoned politicos get distracted by earned media and national polls; but just as former House Speaker Tip O'Neill (D-Mass.) declared decades ago, the tried and tested formula of winning a presidential primary remains the same: It's all local.
Which is why, at this point in the campaign, we should prioritize "likely GOP voter" polls in early primary states over national and "total registered GOP voters" polls - like the Monmouth University poll out last week taken of Iowa GOP voters who have voted in previous caucuses, which shows Cruz winning at 24 percent (Trump is at 19 percent). Or, Sunday's Des Moines Register poll of likely Republican caucus-goers, which has Cruz at 31 percent and Trump 10 percentage points behind.
Recent general GOP polls (like this one and this one), where Trump is winning, factor in new Republican voters - a key portion of his support, but also those less likely to engage in the arduous Iowa caucus voting. And if those voters don't turn out, suddenly Trump drops below Cruz (in Iowa and South Carolina) and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (in New Hampshire) in early primary states, making him dead on arrival to that "brokered convention" the media are fantasizing about.
All the focused polls in early primary states this week show Cruz's momentum growing, a reflection of his formulaic long-term strategy centered on fundraising, investment in ground game across the country, key endorsements and messaging to a coalition of conservative voters.
As we approach the final stretch before primaries begin, third-quarter fundraising reports indicate the health of a presidential campaign. Cruz not only out-raised all other candidates ($12.2 million), but he has assiduously maintained the most cash on hand ($13.8 million). While other big raisers (former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina) have spent resources on pricey ads, Cruz focused on field - perhaps saving media buys for the final days and tight race states. Cruz's investment in ground operations has paid off, as he notably has the strongest infrastructure in Iowa and South Carolina, and is far ahead of the pack in Super Tuesday primary states.
Cruz's organizing success is related to the number of conservative influencers he has wooed - from prominent conservatives like Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) and influential evangelical pastors. In presidential primaries, endorsements still matter, as community leaders are surrogate advocates for the campaign - speaking to congregations and at events, making personal phone calls and rallying other leaders.
You may wonder why Cruz surged this week? A predictable phenomenon in GOP primaries is occurring: As the flavors of the month rise and fall, the candidates focused on the long game benefit. Last week, Cruz picked up evangelical support from rival candidate Ben Carson, who dropped from 32 percent to 13 percent in the past six weeks in Iowa alone. And with 65 percent of South Carolina GOP primary voters identifying as evangelical or born-again, Cruz will most likely jump ahead a couple more points in the next few weeks.
Cruz's long-term campaign strategy has focused on a coalition of conservatives, over half of the Republican primary voters: Tea Partyers, evangelical whites and far-right conservatives. His message is been part pastor-like and part renegade-like, challenging the GOP and the establishment to send a true conservative to the White House to "take on the Washington cartel." Cruz often reminds voters that he is the only GOP candidate with a record of taking on Washington - as he recently recalled what his strategist told him about his candidacy, "'America hates Washington. Washington hates you. That ain't bad.'"
But perhaps the most intriguing factor contributing to Cruz's success is Trump's overt extremism. Suddenly, Cruz - whom I admittedly once called "a flashback to Medieval Times" on "Lou Dobbs Tonight" - is the palatable conservative alternative for likely GOP voters - and even the GOP establishment. When asked about Cruz's toxic relationship with his colleagues, a high-ranking GOP consultant told me that "the GOP establishment may hate Ted Cruz, but they fear Donald Trump."
Furthermore, Iowa is not essential for a Cruz victory, but it is essential for Trump. While Trump has surprised pundits by his Iowa ground game, getting his 'new GOP voter support" out to caucus will be far more difficult than getting out the vote for Cruz's "likely GOP voters." And to gain the lead again in Iowa, Trump will have to prevent Cruz from winning over any of Carson's (or any other conservative candidate's) lagging support.
The last mile of this drawn-out early state primary campaign will be difficult for Trump. As we inch toward Iowa, he will likely make more outrageous statements to woe undecided conservatives. If Cruz remains smart, he will continue to praise Trump. In the meantime, for those worried over the demise of our Constitution under President Trump, have no fear. Ted Cruz, former clerk to late Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist, is here to stay. Hyper-disciplined, Cruz's multifaceted strategy - a formula of raising and saving cash, prioritizing field over media, focusing on evangelicals and anti-establishment conservatives - has solidified support across all primary states. And in coming weeks, as candidates fade, expect Trump's tirades to continue, and watch as Cruz quietly capitalizes.
Sorry but I just don’t see this happening. I’d like to see Cruz win Iowa but I think Trump will run the table after that.
The game hasn’t even begun yet
I like Ted Cruz, but if anyone thinks that Trump is now finished, you will have to conclude sooner rather than later that rumors of Trump’s demise are much exagerated.
As the networks, pundits,democrats,and elite GOP try to create an overwhelming self fullfilling prophecy, Trump is preparing for the real battle he knew was coming.
Wait a few days, and you will see.Not only that, this is the end of Trump’s beginning game, now the middle game begins, and Trump also has an end game which will cause extreme elitist caterwauling when it comes!
Go DONALD ....and GO CRUZ!Two good men will join a debate thats been needed for a long time, as the MSMS and leftys try to pick them both off.
Ban Muslims from out countryt....give ISIS a recruiting tool...BUT WE WILL HAVE THE BEST RECRUITING TOOL!
I don’t like Trump but this statement: “Furthermore, Iowa is not essential for a Cruz victory, but it is essential for Trump” = Someone needs a dose of reality.
Smartest campaign we’ve seen in years. When it all hits, Trump won’t even know what hit him.
Why does Trump have to win Iowa? If he wins NH, he gets the momentum right back, and it is on to SC for a big test. Cruz is hardly a blip in the NH polls I have seen. Of course, that may have changed recently. But I’d think it is much more important to say that Cruz needs to win Iowa, and then win, or come very close to winning, SC. Not because he would be dead in the water if he didn’t, but because Trump would gain the feel of the inevitable for the AL, TN, GA, TX primaries.
Disagree with that. Trump can take the Romney path to the nomination, where he starts with NH and continues to win the liberal, moderate, blue states.
It really depends on what Trump’s ceiling is for his numbers. If Trump maxes out at 35%, the he is very vulnerable after New Hampshire. If his max is 45%, then he could easily run the table.
Now, I have been wrong about candidate still being in the race in mid-December. (Who would have guessed back in August that we would have 13 candidates debating in 2 days?) But Iowa should start to clear the field.
So let’s say that coming out of Iowa, we have 4 candidates drop out: Santorum, Huckabee, Pataki, and Paul.
So who picks up that support?
In New Hampshire right now, we see it at (RCP average):
Trump - 28.7
Rubio - 12.0
Christie - 10.3
Cruz - 9.7
Undecided - 9.0
Kasich - 7.3
Bush - 7.0
Carson - 6.7
Fiorina - 4.7
Paul - 2.7
Huckabee - 1.0
Graham - 0.3
Santorum - 0.3
Pataki - 0.3
That is correct. Undecided is in 5th place in New Hampshire. It is seriously unlikely that many of those undecideds will break to people below the top four. Most people who are undecided are just seeing which of the most popular appeals to them the most on the day of voting. They want their vote to matter, so they won’t waste it on someone who can’t win.
That means that Trump will likely be in the mid to upper 30’s on that day. Of the four candidates that I see dropping out after Iowa, I think maybe only Santorum will endorse right away, and I think he will endorse Rubio.
So if my future glasses are working, I think New Hampshire will end up with:
Trump - 36
Rubio - 20
Cruz - 14
Christi - 9
Kasich - 7
Bush - 6
Fiorina - 4
Carson - 3
Graham - 1
At that point, the field really narrows. Christi and Kasich don’t have the money or organization to continue. Fiorina could continue, but she won’t throw good money after bad. She will go back to California and probably try for the Senate again. Carson will pack it up as he won’t be pulling in any more money. And then there were 5 for South Carolina, including the delusional Lindsey Graham.
Right now for the 5 candidates left in my musings, the ratings are:
Trump - 29.8
Cruz - 14.5
Rubio - 13.5
Bush - 6.8
Graham - 2.3
That leaves 33.1% of the votes either undecided or in the column of candidates who will be out by the time of the primary.
And this is where Trump’s ceiling comes into play: If it is 35%, he will likely lose to either Cruz or Rubio in South Carolina. If Bush and Graham are still in the race, they split votes away from Rubio, giving Cruz the best chance.
If Trump can expand to 45%, then he wins and is set to sweep the rest of the race.
>>>Cruz is hardly a blip in the NH polls I have seen. <<<
Cruz has moved up recently in NH to 4th place based upon the RCP average at 9.7%. Krispy Kreme has also been moving up recently to 10.3% and 3rd place. Rubio has been steady at 12.0%, and Trump also fairly steady in 1st place at 28.7%. The most recent poll (WBUR) also had Cruz in 4th place at 10%. This is not “hardly a blip”. If Cruz sweeps through Iowa, he’ll gain some momentum in NH.
based upon recent history.
Anything The Hill says is Democrat propaganda and campaign strategy aimed at getting Hillary elected. Cruz is a good man—but Trump will crush Hillary—and carry so many Republicans with him at the local and state levels, it would be a disaster for the RATS. They want to take Trump out no matter what. They figure they can destroy Cruz much easier at a later date.
The author is spot on. Cruz is winning and it’s because he understands the primaries are a marathon not a sprint. It’s not about Nielsen ratings.
Thanks. That’s good news.
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