Posted on 10/22/2015 11:56:42 AM PDT by Mariner
With a big boost from women, Dr. Ben Carson leads Donald Trump 28 - 20 percent among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with 13 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and 10 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to the results of a September 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Trump at 27 percent with Carson at 21 percent.
Today, Sen. Rand Paul is at 6 percent, with Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 5 percent each. No other candidate tops 3 percent, with 3 percent undecided.
Carson tops Trump 33 - 13 percent among women. Men are divided as 25 percent back Carson and 24 percent go with Trump.
Trump tops the "no way" list as 30 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants say they "would definitely not support" him for the GOP nomination. Bush is next on this "no way" list with 21 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at quinnipiac.edu ...
Looks legit.
The ONLY thing they don't mention is how they identified the 574 respondents.
Did they call 5,000 people to narrow down to Likely GOP Caucus goers?
Or, did somebody hand them a list?
Trump is going to win Iowa.
Hard to believe this.
I think Carson is on the wane.
Noticed he does better with women.
Could they feel funnier saying they’re not voting black.
Does the maternal instinct favor an amiable doctor over a ruthless tycoon?
i dont know. seriously, i dont know lol
Rand Paul is beating Bush!? Pretty soon Bush isn’t going to be allowed in the prime time debates.
Doesn’t matter if he wins the most or not. Iowa is not winner take all. He and Carson will divide delegates. One more for either side won’t make much difference at convention
Strong evangelicals and strong conservatives are more likely to support Carson.
If you look at the internals (link at bottom the results page), you’ll notice that they knowingly increased the percentage of those groups from the sep 11 poll to this poll?
Why, if they know that those groups are more likely to back Carson?
Getting a representative cross sample of Likely Republican Caucus Goers cannot be an easy thing to do.
A purely random survey would have to cover at least half the precincts and start with a call list of AT LEAST 5,000.
The question that needs to be answered is...where did you get the list of 574?
My daughters mother in-law says she’s either voting for Hillary or Carson
Certainly good news, now if only Rubio would start to tank too.
Repeat from another thread:
Iowa will probably have 150,000 - 200,000 GOP caucus-goers. More than half, up to 70%, are regulars who have attended a number of caucuses over the years, and the party knows them by name and address.
‘Random’ polls rely on voluntary answers from a random population, not from known names and addresses. The problem with these polls should be obvious.
Margin of errors are at least twice what pollsters will admit. And that’s for honest polls, not push polls, which, of course, show up on demand to fit a MSM meme.
They said their responses were all landline or cell phone, iirc.
They weighted this poll more heavily toward known Carson supporters than they did the last poll. One can’t help but be suspicious of that.
So, you're saying the Iowa Republican Party gave Quinnipiac a list of names and numbers...and they called a subset of that list?>p>Makes sense.
It would cost far too much time and money to do it randomly. And right.
I guess his much criticized book hiatus is actually working. Perhaps if he suspended his campaign all together he will get a clear majority.
I don’t think anyone knows what is going on and a sample of 575 people has to have a relatively high margin of error.
Your daughter’s mother in law is an idiot
I remember a few years back in Washington State GOP caucuses there was a sudden surge of Ron Paul supporters and the exploding heads in the established hierarchy rivaled St Helens.
Doesn’t matter “what is going on.” There is a headline and in the TwitterMedia of today one must be ready to spin the “narrative” by any means necessary.
I guaranty that the Republican Party of Iowa did not knowingly give Quinnipiac lists of caucus attendees.
Candidates have such lists, but are prohibited from sharing them, and there’s probably too much downside to cheat. There’s a felony conviction for prohibited campaign practices in Iowa news right now.
I do like what Dr. Carson has to say. His lack of experience putting conservativism in to practice, is where I have a problem with him though.
CGato
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