Are Walker protesters hurting or helping his 2016 chances?

MADISON (WKOW) -- As Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) looks to rebuild momentum in the wake of some ebbing poll numbers, could those who have made it their goal to bring him down actually help bolster his chances to capture the 2016 Republican presidential nomination?

Pundits of all political stripes agree it was the 2011 Act 10 protests and the failed 2012 recall effort that put Scott Walker in a position to even challenge for the nomination.

Last Friday, a few dozen union protesters showed up outside of Slyman's Restaurant in Cleveland and turned what would have been a pretty forgettable Walker campaign stop into a raucous scene.

"Get up, get down, Cleveland is a union town!," shouted the protesters on the sidewalk in front of the legendary deli.

Inside, a protester asked Gov. Walker this question: "If you're elected President, are you going to screw the workers all around the country like you did in Wisconsin - taking away their collective bargaining and their rights to the American dream?"

Smiling throughout the question, Gov. Walker answered: "I'm incredibly pro-worker...."

One of the people who was leading the charge outside lives right here in Madison.

"We are here to tell the people of Cleveland and the people of Ohio the truth about Scott Walker's policies," said Scott Foval, head of the Wisconsin chapter of the liberal group - People for the American Way.

As the protests grew louder, Cleveland police were brought in to make a path from the door of the restaurant to Gov. Walker's campaign vehicle, so he could leave.

As this scene unfolded - Collin Roth, managing editor of the conservative website Right Wisconsin, retweeted a 27 News picture and wrote: "'Aggressively normal' guy requires police escort to leave restaurant. His enemies are his best asset."

27 News asked Foval if he does indeed worry whether such protests could rally more Republicans to Walker's side and therefore help with his nomination process?

"He talks a tough game, but what you just saw here was Scott Walker not stopping and talking to average people," said Foval.

"It's certainly not going to hurt him," said Mayer, who added that in a 17 candidate race, a loud protest of your campaign can't be a bad thing.

"If Walker's in a car on the way to Manny's Delicatessen or some place and an aide tells him, 'hey look, there's a crowd of 25 protesters there,' his reaction is going to be, 'that's good,' because that just means there's something for the cameras to cover," said Mayer.

But Foval believes there is a value in the protests because they can help realign the conversation and get people thinking about why Gov. Walker is so disliked in parts of Wisconsin.

"Whether it affects his chances or not, is not really the issue," said Foval. "The issue is telling a truthful story."

Politifact - July 28, 2015: Donald Trump says that under Scott Walker, Wisconsin budget went from projected surplus to a deficit

[SNIP]

Our rating

Mixing apples and oranges, Trump said that under Walker, Wisconsin "projected a $1 billion (budget) surplus and it turns out to be a deficit of $2.2 billion."

There was in early 2014 a projection of a $1 billion surplus heading into the 2015-’17 budget period. Late in 2014, there was a projection of a $2.2 billion shortfall -- the difference between expected revenues and the amount of money being requested by state agencies. But the shortfall was never a deficit -- and some of the surplus was consciously spent by Republicans, as tax cuts.

For a statement that contains only an element of truth and ignores critical facts that would give a different impression, our rating is Mostly False."

August 11, 2015: Brian Kilmeade gets Scott Walker's response to Trump's Democratic Party talking points repeated today.

April 23, 2015 [Forbes] As The Fed Prepares To Tighten, Which States Have Already Reached Full Employment? ~~Wisconsin among the first states to reach full-employment in the Midwest along with energy-focused states~~

"....The Midwestern economy can generally be divided into states with a significant energy presence that have benefitted from the innovation of horizontal drilling and those that have not and are more focused on manufacturing.

States that have benefitted from the technological advance have arguably seen their natural rates of unemployment fall. For example, the unemployment rates during March of South Dakota (3.5%), North Dakota (3.1%), and Minnesota (3.7%) are well below the national average of 5.5%.

The manufacturing focused states in the Midwest however tell a very different story of a mixed economic recovery. For instance, the unemployment rates of Illinois (6.0%), Indiana (5.8%) and Michigan (5.6%) remain above the national average of 5.5%. Arguably these states have a fair amount of slack in their respective labor markets, especially when considering the decline in their respective labor force participation rates since the Great Recession.

One outlier in the manufacturing branch of the Midwestern economy is Wisconsin that has not only an unemployment of 4.6% (well below the national unemployment rate of 5.5%), but also a labor force participation rate of 68.4% well above the national rate of 62.7%.

An important analytical caveat is when a states like Wisconsin approach or attain full-employment, job growth will likely slow to be more in line with population growth. It’s important to note that the U.S. economy needs to add 80,000 jobs per month according to a paper by Chicago Fed economists Dan Aaronson and Scott Brave simply to keep up with population growth and maintain the same employment rate as the previous month. Some reports have confused this principle in attempting to misuse data to direct political attacks toward Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, using 12-month job growth as the only metric in measuring the state’s economy, ignoring the unemployment gap (relative to full-employment) and labor force participation, two of the most popular metrics preferred by economists when assessing the state of the labor market.

May 3, 2015 [WSJ] A Closer Look at Scott Walker’s Record on Jobs "Wisconsin ranks 40th in the nation for job growth, or so says a recent Bureau of Labor Statistics report. Many in the media and political circles pounced on the release as evidence that the policies of Republican Gov. Scott Walker, a potential presidential candidate, have left the Badger State trailing much of the nation.

But the report failed to give sufficient context to Wisconsin’s job growth. The BLS, along with other reports touting similar results, ranked states based on how much private employment increased over a year.

Why might Wisconsin’s employment increase seem modest? One reason could be that more Wisconsinites than people in many other states already had jobs, which they did. Another wrinkle comes from factors like the energy boom in the upper plains states. In states like Wisconsin not so blessed with shale, job growth can seem comparatively slow.

Let’s look at Wisconsin’s employment growth since Mr. Walker took office. Since February 2011, Wisconsin’s employable population has grown by about 100,000 people, but the number of people employed increased by about 135,000. That means employment outpaced population growth significantly..........

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