Manufacturing Is Mired In Low Gear, Seeking Momentum

Investors Busniness Daily ^ | 08/03/2015 | ANDREA RIQUIER

[expat_panama]

Manufacturing growth cooled in July, an industry report showed Monday, as factories, like the broader economy, struggle to gain momentum amid an array of headwinds.

The purchasing managers' index from the Institute for Supply Management fell 0.8 point to 52.7, below economists' forecasts for a 0.2 point uptick.

The details were mixed. The new orders index rose 0.5 point to 56, suggesting more robust growth ahead. The production gauge rose to a 3-month high of 56, but the order backlog reading sank further into contraction at 42.5, its lowest since 2012. The employment measure fell 2.8 points to 52.7.

Readings over 50 signal expansion.

"The ISM index is signaling more of the same for the factory sector — continued steady growth despite challenges from soft global economic growth and a struggling domestic energy sector," wrote Richard Moody, Regions Financial chief economist, in a client note.

That's a trend many economists expect to continue. Gus Faucher, a senior economist with PNC Financial, called the July data "disappointing" and said manufacturing will continue to contribute to GDP growth only modestly.

Non-Energy Firms Look Up

Faucher thinks that while energy firms aren't out of the woods yet, the lower cost of energy should finally become a tailwind for firms outside the sector. He also expects capital spending to click on as non-energy firms face capacity constraints.

Capacity utilization, which measures slack in firms' equipment use, hasn't breached 80%, the threshold at which they are commonly expected to need to invest in equipment, since early 2008. As productivity has stayed depressed, firms haven't needed more equipment...

[steve8714]

Too many regs, uncertainty about the availability of electricity.

[expat_panama]

Top 'o the morning and the adventure continues with futures predicting stocks stalling (-0.03%) and metals falling -0.62% --maybe because that's what they all were doing yesterday.   We'll see if today's Factory Orders offers more of yesterday's ISM stat.  News:

Tougher Rules Can't Fix Broken Banking Culture - Clive Crook, Bloomberg
How Investors Should Prepare for Rate Hikes - Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch
Is August a Month For Investors to Take Cover? - John Kimelman, Barron's

[expat_panama]

among other probs...

[MortMan]

Too many customers scared spitless about their own position in the Obama anti-economy.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Too many customers scared spitless about their own position in the Obama anti-economy.

THIS^^^^ - the problem is not manufacturing, the problem is not enough people are buying....here or abroad.

[MortMan]

The problem is not the behavior of the people. It is the behavior of the kleptocratic governments - whose motto is “What’s mine is mine, and what’s yours is mine, too.”

[Alberta's Child]

And one big reason there aren't enough people buying things is that we really don't need much else. The days of consuming for the purpose of consuming are over.

I mean -- does anyone really think they're going to need an iPhone 73 anytime soon?

[rstrahan]

As work participation continues to decline, fewer and fewer buy new stuff, instead buying used. No need for manufacturing new stuff.

[nhwingut]

All related to record low labor force participation. Which is tied to record low home ownership levels. Which is related to low manufacturing levels and record low GDP.

Less people working. Means less of everything related to economic output.

But don’t worry. The unemployment rate is at 5%.

[C. Edmund Wright]

And one big reason there aren't enough people buying things is that we really don't need much else. The days of consuming for the purpose of consuming are over.

You know that's an interesting take. And I think it is at least somewhat correct. And if you are correct, then that means our economy will suffer unless we have a growing export sector - which means "feel good" trade war policies will only make things much worse much faster.

[SpeakerToAnimals]

Has anybody noticed a decrease in truck traffic on the interstates? It is way down along the front range in Colorado. The drop in truck traffic started about a month ago.

[central_va]

The Free Traitor chimes in.

[C. Edmund Wright]

The Bernie Sanders of FR chimes in. Got your Richard Trumka knee pads refurbished. They’ve been getting a lot of over use.

BTW, your lack of originality speaks volumes of your low IQ.People with intelligence are more interesting than people who just beat the same dead horse thousands of times.

[bert]

calling him a free traitor announces you anticapitalist, anti business state of being a left winger disgrace

[Cringing Negativism Network]

He’s right.

Last year America ran a 342 billion dollar trade deficit with the People’s Republic of China.

This year so far, that is INCREASING still.

[central_va]

Low or no tariffs and high income taxes are a progressives dream. Why are defending the current progressive status quo?

[central_va]

You refuse to admit there is a huge penalty for de industrialization and "free trade".

I may be low IQ but you sir are defend traitorous and disastrous trade policies.

So it looks as of Trump is no Free trader either so does he have a low IQ also? As a matter of fact you think everyone that disagrees with you has a low IQ right? That is the sign of a liberal progressive.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Low or no tariffs and high income taxes are a progressives dream

You should sue whoever supposedly educated you. A tariff is nothing but a tax, and the progressive dream is to fool people into paying high taxes - because they exercise the taxes as tariffs. It takes a stupid population to go along with it. It takes a stupid person to think a tax and a tariff are different. They are not. It's just another way to impose a tax.

Some progressive states have no income taxes but exorbitant tariffs. You are the progressive dream - let Bernie Sanders fool you.

[C. Edmund Wright]

I’ll stand with all the great conservative economists and politicians of all times.

You stand with Bernie Sanders. You stand with Richard Trumka. If Donald agrees with Bernie Sanders, then I think it’s fair to ask why, and fair to make him explain it.