Trump lowers expectations for debate

The Hill ^ | 7/30/15 | Mark Hensch

[DoodleDawg]

Trump has a vastly higher chance of winning than Cruz. And I’m understating.

Trump is the only Republican candidate who is losing to Hillary by double-digits in the polls. All he can do, either by getting the nomination or running third party, is give us another Democrat in the White House.

[LS]

I have become much more likely to believe polls. But there is some huge disconnect here, given that Trump is overwhelmingly leading the GOP, that he appeals to indies, and that he in some polls has higher #s with blacks and hispanics than any previous GOP nominee.

But, as I say, polls have proved me wrong before. At this point in 2012, however, all the polls were touting Romney as the "only one" who could beat Obama, ditto with McCain in 2008. So it's entirely possible that the national matchup polls at this point in fact are meaningless, and that the primary polls---at this point---are the only ones that are accurate.

That said, Cruz won't get the nomination. I'm guessing that unfortunately he'll come in 3d or 4th in most of the primaries behind Walker and Bush. . . . with Trump winning most.