Jib Yacht Club and Marina
Posted on 07/28/2015 5:06:07 AM PDT by from occupied ga
As Jim Dulin struggled mightily to steer his 30-foot fishing boat away from an ugly storm and into the Jupiter Inlet early Friday afternoon, he was startled to see a small boat heading the opposite direction into the rough weather.
Among the dozens of vessels in the water, Dulin said the small boat carrying two young males was the only one not racing toward the safety of the inlet.
“I said to myself, ‘Those kids are crazy,’” said Dulin, a Jupiter resident and commercial fisherman for 20 years. “There’s no way they couldn’t see that storm. The storm was really black, the temperature dropped and you could tell it was going to be a really mean one.”
Although Dulin couldn’t be positive, he said it’s likely the passengers on the small boat were Austin Stephanos and Perry Cohen, the Jupiter 14-year-olds who have been missing since they took off on their 19-foot boat from the Jupiter Inlet.
The boys’ capsized vessel was found Sunday just south of Daytona Beach. Coast Guard crews predict, based on currents, that the boys are north of the capsized boat, and plan to focus search efforts on that area.
Friday’s storm began in the early afternoon and forecasters were watching the radar, preparing an alert to warn mariners of bad weather boiling to the north and west.
The storm first smacked Stuart with a 38 mph gust recorded at 1:07 p.m. before rolling through Hobe Sound and stalking into Jupiter.
While the moments leading to the teens’ disappearance are a mystery, the National Weather Service issued a special marine statement about the line of expanding thunderstorms at 1:41 p.m.
Ninety-four minutes later, the alert was heightened to a warning — a signal that wind gusts were topping 38 mph and boaters “should seek safe harbor immediately.”
“It looks to me like they probably encountered these thunderstorms,” said David Zierdan, state climatologist for the Florida Climate Center in Tallahassee. “Other than the thunderstorms, the weather conditions were pretty benign.”
It’s the kind of weather South Florida summers are known for. Afternoon storms kick up quickly with the west winds, turning friendly seas dangerous in moments.
“Had they been out over the open water, they could have had some rapidly changing conditions,” said John Pendergrast, senior meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne, about the two 14-year-olds who have been missing since Friday. “It’s too hard to say whether weather directly could have caused whatever it is that happened to them, but there were some localized wind gusts and precipitation.”
Searchers were still looking for the teens late Monday, following a crude road map provided by Mother Nature in the Gulf Stream, winds and currents.
Searchers discovered the teens’ capsized boat Sunday more than 60 miles off the coast of Daytona Beach, sucked 170 miles north by the powerful current of water that parallels Florida’s coast.
The area of the find was no surprise to Dmitry Dukhovski, an associate scientist of physical oceanography for Florida State University.
He said the Gulf Stream accelerates as it is squeezed through a channel created between the Bahamas and the Florida coast. The pace picks up to about 3-and-half mph and stays swift until it reaches Daytona Beach.
“They should be in the Gulf Stream,” Dukhovski said about the teens. “They probably wouldn’t even know they were caught in it because in the ocean, you can’t feel the motion.”
“You cannot swim against it,” he added.
If Dukhovski wasn’t surprised by the boat’s location, United States Coast Guard Petty Officer and public affairs specialist Mark Barney said it was alarming to find it so far north.
Judging by the boat’s location, the search area Monday was moved to about 60 miles east of Jacksonville and north to Fernandina Beach, Barney said.
“We’re on day three and a half, going on four, and we’re all the way on the border with Georgia,” Barney said. “It’s very scary.”
But not hopeless, said Christine Van Dillen, assistant professor of emergency medicine at the University of Florida.
“I definitely think they should continue the rescue and search, especially if they had some sort of equipment that could keep them above the water,” Van Dillen said.
Coast guard officials said Monday they believe the boys may have fashioned a raft with a cooler, life jackets and an engine cover.
Still, just because Gulf Stream water temperatures are in the low 80s, doesn’t mean the teens are safe from hypothermia.
Van Dillen said body temperatures will start to lower when someone is submerged in even 80-degree water. Once it dips to 93 degrees — the normal temperature is 98.6 — organs start to shut down.
“There is still hope,” Van Dillen said. “I hate to give false hope, but there are also people who are young and fit and will pull through.
I have the same size boat as Mr Dulin - (Which is a LOT larger than a 19), and I would NOT dream of taking it out into a storm. What were they thinking taking a single engine 19 out on the Atlantic in bad weather? I read in one article that the CG found their boat 67 miles offshore. While wind and current could account for a lot of this, human error and incredibly bad judgment play a role.
Another global-warming related tragedy.
It doesn’t look good.
The media is fixated on the fact that the cooler and floatation devices are missing as a reason to be optimistic but the boat was still floating too. Why would they leave the biggest floating object in the area?
has caused their probable death.
I don't know with certainty, but all odds are against the two yutes survival chances.
I know but the boys were licensed and the parents seem pretty confindent of the boys abilities.
And if they are floating...the sea is warm enough to not worry about hypothermia.
People have survied worse conditions.
As a parent I would not let my 14 yr old son out like that...but the kids were licensed...and they arent my kids.
I pray they are found soon and alive.
Unrealistic hopes and expectations glossed over with more peanut butter filler ... it's a wonder ANY child (from that environment) even gets a job
I really wouldn't be surprised if these kids actually thought they could make it
“I read in one article that the CG found their boat 67 miles offshore. While wind and current could account for a lot of this, human error and incredibly bad judgment play a role.”
Another source said they were headed to the Bahamas.
They still left the largest most easily spotted floating object in the area.
“the boys were licensed “
Licensed for what?
Driver’s license - 16
CG License - 16
Fishing License - 16
Unless they were totally crazy they wouldn't leave it voluntarily. I suspect the worst.
Even a large boat can be subject to the whims of wind and waves The guy getting tossed overboard in the video at Jupiter inlet died, and there wasn't even a storm.
Youth = immature judgement, I don’t care if they were licensed and relatively “experienced” for their age.
“They still left the largest most easily spotted floating object in the area.”
Or got washed away in the storm.
If so, then that was another incredibly stupid thing to do on their part. There is a good tuna fishing spot in Bahaman waters, that they miht have been headed to, but doing a 150 mile round trip on open ocean in a 19 foot single engine boat is truly beyond stupid.
The only reason I can think of that they might have voluntarily left the boat is if it were within sight of land when it capsized and they tried to swim for shore.
That might be fine in a lake but it doesn’t sound like a good idea there.
Last evening, we could still see the Coast Guard helicopters flying patterns off Ponte Vedra Beach searching for the boys.
Very sobering, it was.
Thunderstorms are dangerous. They come up quick and can produce 7+ foot chop and rogues which will breach 4’ of freeboard. Only a full cuddy with 4’ bow freeboard won’t get swamped in that. And you have to remain bow-into it to avoid rolling or stern swamping.
Their boat is open bow with less than 3’ bow freeboard. I.e., they swamped, gunned the engine, got broke up on successive waves and rolled. IMO if they were not wearing their life jackets before that point they are not wearing them. Being ejected in that type of seas there is no chance of successfully getting back to the boat to secure equipment or hold on. It’s 3500 lbs of waterlogged boat pitching 14’ up and down, left and right, forward and back. It’d knock them out if they tried.
“... by the arrogance and stupidity of youth..”
The young have always been arrogant and stupid when it comes to making decisions. That is why PARENTS make the rules and enforce them... because they were once young, arrogant and stupid. IMHO, the parents of these boys both misjudged their passion for boating as experience and maturity. Sadly.. they will have to live with the consequences. I’m not a boater (and I know many FReepers are) but I am sure there could have been some limits to how far out they went which would have allowed them some freedom and the time to acquire more experience.
Fishing license?
And one can control this issue with a long long rope. Right?
Kids are kids and push boundaries.
Blessings to the families in their time of troubles.
Not true. Eventually they'll lose enough core heat to suffer from hypothermia even in 80+ degree water. Not to mention things in the water that will eat you. It's sad, but the ocean doesn't care. If you make a bad judgment call it can kill you.
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