David Cameron's next big battle - the EU referendum and a possible Brexit

theguardian ^ | Friday 8 May 2015 08.12 EDT | Nils Pratley

[yuffy]

As the City of London celebrates a Conservative victory, it must also face a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union. That poll must happen by the end of 2017 if David Cameron is to honour the Tories’ manifesto commitment. The prospect will now dominate debate in the business world until polling day.

Not every business leader wants the UK to stay in the EU, but it is reasonably clear that most do. In the City and financial establishment, opinion is even more one-sided in favour of membership. Expect to see a full-throttle lobbying campaign, accompanied by dire warnings that investment in the UK is at risk and that the City’s status as a global financial centre is under threat. It will make business lobbying for a no vote in the Scottish referendum look like a tea party.

Indeed, some City economists argued in recent weeks that the EU issue was so important that another Tory-led coalition government might have been the “best” outcome for the UK economy. “Given the potential adverse effect on the UK economy of Brexit risk, in our view a minority Conservative-led government [that is unable to pass an EU referendum bill] might be less risky for the UK economy than a Conservative-led majority that can pass a referendum bill,” argued Citigroup.

Possibly. In practice, one suspects Cameron’s stunning general election victory strengthens his hand in keeping the UK in the EU – which one assumes will be the position he eventually adopts.

[Cowboy Bob]

So, the UK needs to stay in the EU to remain relevant? I guess before they joined the EU, they were just some backwater, 3rd world country.

[molson209]

Cameron’s new slogan , “Polls ,We don’t need no stinking Polls” ,LOL

[Stevenc131]

There will be no poll, just excuses and delays in the hope the public will forget.

[PGR88]

Cameron will NOT hold an EU referendum.

[indcons]

You’re probably correct - though it will be interesting to see how the Tory back benchers react.

[sinsofsolarempirefan]

Well, the UK was in steep decline in the 1970s, and the public was told that the only way to arrest the decline was to throw in our lot with the continentals. The Commonwealth be damned.

[sinsofsolarempirefan]

He can’t avoid it. He is only ruling by a slim majority and many of his intensely eurosceptic backbenchers would rebel and threaten to bring down the government. He may not like it, and he may have secretly been hoping he could go into coalition with the Lib-Dems (who would have blocked it like they did last time) but he campaigned on a manifesto to give a referendum, and now he has a majority, he cannot escape from it.