Posted on 05/07/2015 2:35:58 PM PDT by Kaslin
When the confetti cleared on Election Night in 2012, Barack Obama’s victory over Republican challenger Mitt Romney looked ugly; there’s nothing reassuring about a 332–206 electoral vote smack down.
Although the electoral vote totals made it appear as though it was a runaway Obama victory, the popular vote totals were actually much closer than the final electoral college tally. Romney lost by about 3.5 million votes, which is especially tough in a nation of over 300 million people.
Now that numerous candidates have declared for the 2016 race, pollsters have been busy trying to get an early read on where the nation stands. One interesting poll recently released by Harvard’s Institute of Politics (IOP)shows that although a majority of young voters still favor a Democrat (DNC) candidate for the presidency, the gap has closed significantly compared to the previous two presidential elections.
About 55 percent of respondents aged 18–29 indicated in the IOP’s poll that they would like to see the Democrat win. Exit polling data reveal 66 percent of the same demographic preferred Obama over McCain in 2008 and 60 percent favored Obama over Romney in 2012.
Perhaps even more interestingly, 18–24 year olds in the poll had a slightly less-favorable view of another Democrat president taking office in 2017 than 25–29 year olds did, which may partially be attributed to the poor economy for college graduates and high levels of student debt.
While it’s still (obviously) too early to be thinking about presidential polling, the IOP survey does show the allegiance of young people to the DNC has some serious cracks in it. The mood of many of those same individuals who were very enthusiastic about the Democrat Party just a few elections ago has definitely soured, and there’s no reason to expect things to improve before 2016.
Perhaps more importantly, polls like this one may be a clear sign Hillary Clinton—or maybe even Bernie Sanders (I can dream, can’t I?)—isn’t going to be able to tap into the young, restless hope-filled-dreamer mantra so effectively utilized by the Obama campaign team.
Clinton, even with all of her experience and the high level of respect she’s sure to get from younger voters, is not the kind of candidate young people are going to go rushing to the polls to support. She’s more John Kerry than she is Barack Obama, and I think that’s a much bigger problem than a lot of political pundits today are willing to admit.
If I lost my mind, my convictions, and my commonsense and joined the 2016 Clinton campaign team, my greatest concern would be the lack of enthusiasm for Hillary amongst young people. While there’s probably no reason to believe any Republican could actually win the 18–29 demographic in 2016, it should be noted that in 2004, the last time a Republican presidential candidate won, Democrat challenger John Kerry (D-MA) captured 54 percent of 18–29 year olds, which is exactly what the IOP poll is predicting would happen if the election were tomorrow.
It may be tempting to buy into the belief that all young people are Democrat drones, but all the signs are pointing in the direction of a shift against the DNC similar to those witnessed prior to the 2000 and 2004 elections.
The trend is our friend. too bad where they are headed is no better than where they left.
While there’s probably no reason to believe any Republican could actually win the 18–29 demographic in 2016///
That does not make me happy. I know youth tens to be liberal blah blah. I wasn’t.
I’ll see you guys later. Heading over to nephew’s house with a baseball bat
As indicated by Romney’s margin of loss, the problem is 1% of the voters in a small number of swing states control the election.
HOORAY young voters!
Here’s the problem: Hillary Clinton—the presumptive candidate—will turn 69 years old less than a month before Election Day 2016. Meanwhile, the Republican challenger field—at least the viable candidates—will be 15 to 25 years younger than her. In short, she’s will likely face the issue of whether she’s too old to be President, one thing that would never have been asked had she been successful back in 2008.
Hopefully this is like Reagan. Look back and I bet he won this age group too.
Ted Cruz 2016
I guess kids finally started to grow up?
The baby boomers did this in 1980 and 84.
Once again... the only poll I believe is the one taking place in the polling booth, and that isn’t even guaranteed sacred these days.
I can’t take this kind of stuff serious, but it is intriguing to read about.
“Poll Shows Young Voters Likely to Turn on Democrats in 2016”
One would sure think so, considering how many “millenials” are living with their parents and cannot find decent employment.
Five states decided the election. These were swing states: Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire. A total of 521,454 votes.
I don’t know; “democracy” is a powerful calling for our young people.
We have 4 candidates that will appeal to Ute’s in this order: Rubio, Fiorina, Carson and Cruz.
I believe it is more specific than “democrats.”
I expect voters to turn against government and those closely representing, entwined, supporting government as the solution to problems.
This means that third parties will have lots of support - whether they are a real third party or a quasi third party candidate that is running from outside government and in opposition to it.
There is (according to MA) a significant shift from the public sector to the private sector... and a rise in third parties across the world.
Cruz or any other (technically) R candidates could run against government.
As soon as Hillary sees this, she will begin to run against government as a transgendered, hispanic male.
PS: I left Rand Paul out because I do not see him as viable for either POTUS OR VP. But he does have appeal to the Ute’s without vaginas. Wink.
They besmirch old white guys all the time. Will they do the same to an old white woman?
I have no intention to vote for Rand Paul. He turned me off in 2012 or 13 when he set his priority of running for the 2016 presidential election
“It may be tempting to buy into the belief that all young people are Democrat drones...”
It’s not only tempting, it’s true.
IMHO
Our mantra:
“Don’t you think she looks. . . .tired?”
Repeat loudly and often. . .
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.