Posted on 03/27/2015 8:57:16 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
It’s early 2011, and an unheard-of candidate for Senate is deciding to enter a race 22 months down the line to replace one of Texas’ most revered senators.
He has no money, no prospective sources of donors. He has no establishment credibility. He has chosen to battle perhaps the most establishment of the establishment — the state’s lieutenant governor.
Now, it’s early 2015, and a still relatively unheard-of candidate for president is deciding to enter a race 20 months down the line. He faces questions about whether he can raise a consistent amount of money. He has no establishment credibility. He has chosen to battle perhaps the most establishment of the establishment — a former governor whose brother and father have both been president of the United States.
His supporters and observers of Texas politics say it’d be a mistake, though, to count out Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) again. He faces long odds, and scoffs from the national media, about his candidacy for president, which he formally announced on Monday during a speech at Liberty University in Virginia.
But he is already following the same playbook as his 2012 campaign for U.S. Senate, when he pulled off one of the most stunning upsets in recent memory over Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and quickly rose to become one of the leaders of the conservative movement. Can he repeat that performance on a national scale?
“Those same smart people were probably skeptical of his bid for the Republican nomination for the Senate seat he now holds!” Sean Theriault, an associate professor of government at the University of Texas, said of Cruz’s chances.
“In short, no one in the Republican Party, except perhaps Jim DeMint, is better at speaking the Tea Party message than Senator Cruz.”
Cruz undoubtedly faces many of the same hurdles this campaign. In an NBC/Marist College poll released earlier this month, just 40 percent of Republican voters said they could see themselves voting for Cruz, compared with 38 percent who said they could not. He does not poll well with voters outside the traditional GOP base, raising questions about whether voters hungry for a win in the general election will choose to nominate him.
And he has few friends in the Republican establishment or on Capitol Hill, as a result of his brash brand of politics. Which leads to another question: Can the grassroots sustain his campaign on a national scope? According to <>The Houston Chronicle, Cruz’s advisers hope he can raise $40 million to $50 million during the campaign, far less than the $100 million former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush anticipates to raise this month alone.
Matt Mackowiak remembers how Cruz came up in the 2012 campaign. He announced his candidacy in a conference call with conservative bloggers. He went to every single Tea Party-type event that he possibly could, quickly becoming the grassroots candidate. He required that each event conduct a straw poll — and he would end up winning most of them, forcing the media at large to take notice.
“I say this in a good way,” said Mackowiak, the Texas-based founder of Potomac Strategy Group. “He was able to manufacture grassroots momentum. It was real, but in a way it was manufactured as well.”
Mackowiak expects Cruz’s team will find ways to demonstrate the size and scope of his grassroots army this time around, hoping to build the same kind of momentum. The challenge is standing out in an already crowded field of not only Republican candidates, but conservative, Tea Party types — like Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky), former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania), Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
The key may lie in Iowa, which holds the first presidential caucus of the campaign. It’s no secret why his opening salvo came at Liberty University on Monday: According to the state’s 2012 “entrance poll,” 57 percent of Iowa Republican caucus-goers were evangelical Christians.
Cruz will aim to win there, or at least finish very high. By that point, it will become clear if conservative and evangelical voters have coalesced around a candidate like Walker, or if Cruz is able to use what observers call a strong grassroots-campaigning platform to sway them to his side.
“If he were to win Iowa, I think it would be very much a game-changer,” Mackowiak said.
“A big win in Iowa could propel him to the nomination,” added Theriault. “If the hard right candidates fall like flies and Cruz wins Iowa, he could have some longevity, especially if Bush has some competition from the ‘establishment’ wing of his party.”
“If Walker falters, it’s not impossible to imagine Cruz winning the Iowa caucus with strong support from evangelicals,” said Geoffrey Skelley, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Cruz’s endgame might even be the same as it was in 2012. Back then, he unexpectedly forced Dewhurst into a runoff, but he still finished 10 points behind him. Dewhurst poured in $25 million of his own cash to salvage his campaign, but to little avail. Cruz won the runoff by 14 points. His aim this time is to squeeze out the other conservative candidates — hopefully by March 1, or “Super Tuesday” — and essentially force a “runoff” with Bush for the nomination.
If he can do that, there’d be a path to shock the political world — and the country — again.
“He overcame huge financial disparities between he and the Lieutenant Governor,” Theriault said of 2012.
“In part, because of those disparities, he was able to attract much media attention. It was all the grassroots that propelled his campaign and forced the media and political operators to take his campaign seriously. I don’t think that narrative has changed for him for this run.”
i was just looking for this article to prove a point i made in another thread
These people just need to accept the fact that it’s Cruz’s “time”. How dare they try to get in the way of that? What a bunch of racists.
You and your family get SS detail when you declare.
Every single day since he announced his candidacy - there are a myriad of articles pro or con - mostly con - and I’m sick of it already. Meanwhile, the lunatic in the WH is ready to give nukes to the Iranians, and these damned idiots are focused on an election some 22 months from now? Ok, I’m probably off a few months, but you get my drift.
I feel you. This is all a Red Herring, unfortunately. Focus on Cruz’s supposed “defects” and “schemes” while drawing attention away from Obama’s very real ones.
I don’t believe so, I think it’s when you become the nominee or you’re black.
Consider the source. Fusion also touted this article:
Fusion Poll Millenials - Hillary Clinton - Jeb Bush Election 2016
TED CRUZ 2016
I agree.I would not trust secret service.
I agree - I think all presidential candidates get SS protection when they officially declare they are running for the job.
•Major presidential and vice presidential candidates, and their spouses within 120 days of a general presidential election
http://www.secretservice.gov/faq.shtml#faq2
In 2016, about 27% of voters will be non-white, and more than 80% of them will vote for the Democrat.
The GOP nominee will need to get at least 62% of the white vote to overcome that non-white voting bloc.
That's not likely.
Since the Reagan reelection landslide in 1984, no GOP nominee has ever received more than 60% of the white vote.
Did you know that Ted Cruz received 41% of the Hispanic vote in 2012?
Since the Reagan reelection landslide in 1984, no GOP nominee has ever received more than 60% of the white vote.
Amazing that in these conversations voter fraud is almost always IGNORED...
IF Cruz is selected (and it is an IF) voter fraud is an important issue.. maybe the most important..
With GOPe working hand in hand with democrats voter fraud at the primary is also possible...
You know...... like in 2012.. when a KNOWN obvious collaborator with democrats was SELECTED... (probably)..
AND ALL the conservative candidates WERE REJECTED..
I have not seen the 41% number before.
Cruz’s own polling says 40%.
The Rice University Political Science Department studied all Texas exit polls and estimated 36%.
“Latino Decisions,” a Texas-based organization that specializes on national and state Hispanic voting, says that Cruz got 35% - but the poll was taken Election Eve.
Here’s the link:
http://www.latinovote2012.com/app/#all-tx-all
The national Hispanic vote is the most important number, not the Texas Hispanic vote.
Only George W. Bush (2004) and Ronald Reagan (1984) received 40% of the Hispanic vote nationally.
No other GOP candidate has reached 40% - ever.
In 2004, 77% of voters were white.
In 2004, Bush got 58% of the white vote, and Bush won the popular vote by just over 2%.
In 2012, only 72% of voters were white, and, because of massive LEGAL immigration, that number will continue to go down.
I stand by my prediction - no Republican nominee can win in 2016 unless he gets 62% of the white vote, and that will be very, very hard to do.
Republicans were screaming “Voter Fraud” in 1960, which was the first presidential election I was old enough to carefully follow.
In 2012, Republicans were still screaming “Voter Fraud.”
In 52 years we have done exactly NOTHING to stop Democrat voter fraud.
If election fraud has actually changed election results, then the Republican Party DESERVES to lose because of laziness, or indifference, or political timidity.
Most important, the Democrats do not NEED to cheat anymore.
The have enough eligible voters to win the White House in 2016 and to take back the Senate in 2016 or 2018.
After Congressional re-districting in 2022, they will have enough eligible voters to take back the House of Representatives.
All they have to do is get their LEGAL voters to the polls, and if they do, we have no way to beat them.
I don't know...
1300 Felons voting for Al Franken and making him the 60th Senator to get beyond Cloture so Obamacare could be brought up on the floor of the Senate is an issue with me.
What is worse, no one has done a bleeping thing about it, He shouldn't be their plain and simple....
Wow! I never knew they changed that.
I do remember that when W left office, the Clintons down-graded his protection to a few years, instead of lifetime. I never checked to see if the Clintons get “lifetime” protection.
Soooooo .. I would guess, this SS detail list was possibly changed during this admin?
I still believe God will put Hillary in power because America is under judgment. If He even allows America to survive until then.
In 52 years we have done exactly NOTHING to stop Democrat voter fraud.
Exactly... except a few States now require I.D. to VOTE...
In my State voting twice doesn’t happen.. UNLESS you voted in another State.. and illegal OR legal aliens do not vote..
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