Back In 2000, The CIA Made These Predictions For 2015

Business Insider ^ | 01/02/2015 | Nicholas Carlson

[SeekAndFind]

Back in 2000, the CIA published a 70-page report on what the world would be like in 2015.

Here were some of those predictions, according to a December 2000 story from The Telegraph.

* "International affairs are increasingly determined by large and powerful organizations rather than governments." Verdict: Probably true, though it is sometimes hard to distinguish between non-state actors and state actors. Just look at the Islamic State or the possibly-not-North Korean hackers who took down Sony.

* "Between now and 2015 terrorist tactics will become increasingly sophisticated and designed to achieve mass casualties." Verdict: Definitely true. Sadly, this prediction became true within months.

* "Iraq and Iran [will] develop long range missiles in the near future. Iran … could be testing such weapons by as early as the coming year, and cruise missiles by 2004." Verdict: Both true and false. Iran is definitely working on an ICBM, but it won't test it till next year.

* "The world population will grow by more than one billion, to 7.2 billion." Verdict: True.

* "Energy resources will be sufficient to meet demand." Verdict: Nailed it. Companies are actually canceling plans to dig up more natural gas because oil is abundant right now.

* "China's economy will grow to overtake Europe as the world's second largest but still behind the United States." Verdict: True-ish. By some measurements, China's economy is now larger than the US economy.

[BlueStateRightist]

They missed “An unqualified Marxist demagogue will rule the U.S.”

[bigbob]

See also the CIA Global Trends 2030 report

[MrBambaLaMamba]

“An unqualified Kenyan-born Islamic Marxist demagogue will rule the U.S.”

Fixed

[tubalcane]

Partly self-fulfilling prophecy, considering they run the world, at least in their own minds. It never goes the way they plan, but that’s one of them “known unknowns.”

[gandalftb]

Here’s the link to that report:

http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Global%20Trends_2015%20Report.pdf

It should be noted that the report relies on non-governmental sources, outside the CIA.

[SunkenCiv]

Note: this topic is from 1/02/2015. Thanks SeekAndFind.

Global Trends 2015, a boiling down from the Telegraph's boiling down:

• alliances between some of the most powerful criminal groups such as the Mafia and Chinese triads, leaders of unstable, economically fragile or failing states, troubled banks and businesses, insurgent political movements
• narcotics trafficking, human trafficking, smuggling toxic materials, hazardous wastes, illicit arms, military technologies, and other contraband, and financial fraud and racketeering will drive the alliance
• globalisation will play an increasing role in everyone's lives, particularly due to the above
• governments will have less and less control over the flow of information
• terrorist tactics will become increasingly sophisticated and designed to achieve mass casualties."
• growing threat of biological and chemical weapons and "suitcase" nuclear devices
• rogue states such as Iraq and Iran to develop long range missiles, nuclear, chemical and biological warheads
• world population will grow by more than one billion, to 7.2 billion
• static birthrates in Europe and Japan means more immigration
• Africa will suffer from Aids, famine, and continuing economic and political turmoil and water will be in increasingly short supply
• energy resources will be sufficient to meet demand
• computer technology will transform the globe in ways not seen since the Industrial Revolution
• genetically modified crops will improve nutrition
• China's economy will overtake Europe's
• Russia's economy will contract to barely a fifth of America's
• the European Union to narrow the economic gap with America
• a trade war between Europe and America
• an alliance between terrorist organisations to attack the West
• economic stagnation, followed by America abdicating its role as the world's policeman
• China will demand Japan dismantle its nuclear program

[GOPJ]

The list is strangely comforting... it's almost like we're paying people who in at least one area know what they're talking about.

[jjotto]

Like Marie Harf.

[GOPJ]

Marie Harf? LOL. Good one jjotto.