Posted on 11/23/2014 7:54:57 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Bayes’ Rule (a simple algebraic transformation of Bayes’ Theorem that converts probabilities into odds) supplies the appropriate guidance with respect to how recently announced evidence against Bill Cosby should update our belief with respect to his guilt or innocence.
The Rule says that, broadly speaking, we should update our beliefs via a likelihood ratio that is formed by dividing the probability that X number of women (substitute for X however many women have testified against Cosby) would lie if Cosby is guilty by the probability that X number of women would lie if Cosby is innocent.
The language “broadly speaking” was included since the probabilities are clearly conditioned on many factors, such as the personality characteristics, the clustering in time of the accusations, and so on. With respect to factors such as personality characteristics and assuming even minimal independence, the greater the number of women that accuse Cosby, the greater the likelihood that what any individual woman says is true.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
This article actually refers to this particular thread in Free Republic regarding Bill Clinton :
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1157708/posts
Why are they all coming forward now?
And as far as Clinton goes, imagine if some of these women had actually come forward and sent the pervert to prison. How many victims would have been spared, not to mention the nation from him and his family.
Interesting approach. Could be applied in reverse to demonstrate the probable innocence of Clarence Thomas, who had only one accuser as compared to dozens and dozens of women he’d work with over the decades who said he’d always been a perfect gentleman.
The only reason Bill Cosby is being thrown under the buss is a couple of rather benign remarks he made about blacks taking responsibility for the breakdown of the black family.....I would not be surprised to find reverend Al’s (and his lackey the O one’s)fingerprints all over this!!!
In both cases, it was unknown women vs. rich, powerful and influential men. Who would be believed more? Plus, it was a different cultural climate then.
Not uncommon for people who went thru traumatic situations to bury it. Really - a conspiracy of 13+ women? And their stories are disturbingly believable.
Perhaps it’s time to finally admit that The Cos is a cowardly serial rapist.
Get out of the way and let this Obama supporter go down!
This is idiocy! The man scolded gang members for wearing their pants low, big deal!
He was a huge Obama supporter in 2008 and 2012 and called Republicans racists!
What is wring with you people?
And that's why these women are now speaking out: Strength in numbers. People are unlikely to believe a story that Bill Cosby raped you...unless others come forward...and that's why so many stayed silent for so long.
He's a rapist. No conspiracy...no Al....No O. HE (BILL COSBY) is guilty.
And don't give me the crap about "until proven guilty"....'cause if that's the standard a whole lot of people need to apologize to Bill, Hill and O.
You forgot the Sarc. tag........someone might think you are serious. Good grief.
I’m not defending Bill Cosby....I’m saying if he had not said the things he said about black families this would not be reported as it is being. Why do you think the media suddenly showed an interest!!
See post #10!!
I wonder how the woman who got the settlement found so many corroborating witnesses who had similar stories. 12 other women who were willing to swear to it. Does the lawyer just start calling up women who have been known to be seen with Cosby or what? I guess she worked at Temple U., maybe the 12 other women were affiliated with the school so it was easier to find them or something?
FReegards
See post #9!!
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