Posted on 11/20/2014 5:12:35 AM PST by thackney
Apart from deliberately bombing civilians being a war crime, we don't have enough bombs to prevent people from farming. Heck, we'd be doing them a favor, helping them till the soil. They don't need slaves to farm - they have a functioning market economy. People are paid for goods and services.
Maybe but it has to be delivered to them, so why can’t Zero figure it out. And NO ONE said anything about bombing civilians...they have to sleep.
ISIS lives among civilians who outnumber them 50 to 1. We can't starve ISIS because they have the guns (and tanks and artillery) and will always eat first.
Thanks for the data and link. I didn't mean to suggest it was a drastic change. I had watched the trickle down from last summer.
Deep water and fracking have finally raised production levels to the point that prices have to come down for the market to clear.
I believe the recent significant change was Libya coming mostly back on line. Prior Libya shutdowns had been made up mostly by US Shale increasing production. As they recently started production ramping up, the slack was already gone.
I don't think the Offshore has really made much difference lately.
Okay, fine....so ‘you can’t get there from here’...no wars were ever won that way.
The practical reason Bush did not irradiate Afghanistan is because he would have been brought up on war crimes charges by the Dems at some future point in time, and gotten a life term (until he was pardoned by a sympathetic GOP president). Unless he was committed to living in exile in a country that doesn't extradite to the US (none, especially if Uncle Sam is willing to throw in some sweeteners), his hands were tied.
Bottom line is that the measures we take are limited by what present laws consider acceptable. 800 years ago, he could have sent an expedition to kill everyone they saw, and have had his actions greeted with universal acclaim at the domestic level. Not today.
OPEC numbers (which include Libya):
Data for this Date Range July 31, 2014 32.16M June 30, 2014 31.86M May 31, 2014 31.82M April 30, 2014 31.94M March 31, 2014 31.82M Feb. 28, 2014 32.44M Jan. 31, 2014 32.31M Dec. 31, 2013 31.70M Nov. 30, 2013 31.50M Oct. 31, 2013 31.99M Sept. 30, 2013 31.95M Aug. 31, 2013 32.67M July 31, 2013 32.77M June 30, 2013 32.62M May 31, 2013 32.82M April 30, 2013 32.75M March 31, 2013 32.31M Feb. 28, 2013 32.14M Jan. 31, 2013 32.20M Dec. 31, 2012 32.38M Nov. 30, 2012 32.66M Oct. 31, 2012 32.72M Sept. 30, 2012 33.22M Aug. 31, 2012 33.55M July 31, 2012 33.29M
OPEC's October numbers:
June 30, 2012 33.39M May 31, 2012 33.29M April 30, 2012 33.75M March 31, 2012 33.49M Feb. 29, 2012 33.48M Jan. 31, 2012 33.12M Dec. 31, 2011 32.80M Nov. 30, 2011 32.50M Oct. 31, 2011 31.68M Sept. 30, 2011 32.05M Aug. 31, 2011 32.00M July 31, 2011 31.86M June 30, 2011 31.61M May 31, 2011 30.97M April 30, 2011 30.94M March 31, 2011 30.81M Feb. 28, 2011 31.98M Jan. 31, 2011 32.39M Dec. 31, 2010 31.81M Nov. 30, 2010 31.71M Oct. 31, 2010 31.45M Sept. 30, 2010 31.88M Aug. 31, 2010 31.85M July 31, 2010 31.80M June 30, 2010 31.78M
Supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has averaged 30.72 million bpd in October, down from a revised 30.84 million bpd in September, according to the survey based on shipping data and information from sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.In other words, the glut isn't coming from an increase in OPEC production.
“Starving ISIS”
Not sure that makes sense.
Most of ISIS wells are in Iraq, and some in Syria.
I will guess that ISIS production costs are reasonably close to Saudi production costs, which are around $10 per barrel.
A couple weeks ago I saw two oil economists on CNBC.
One of them said that financing for new wells in North America would completely stop if the price of oil goes below $67 per barrel.
WTI is currently trading at $76.
Re: “For American shale plays, natural gas is the ace in the hole”
Not sure I agree.
In many USA shale formations natural gas is being flared off, mostly because the cost of recovery and transport makes it unprofitable.
Unless natural gas stays above $4.50 for an extended period, not just in the winter time, the natural gas revolution may have to wait.
Bush had the option to pardon himself, didn’t he?
Had. Couldn't pre-emptively pardon himself. His AG would not pursued an indictment. But any Democratic administration would have. No statute of limitations on war crimes.
Infrastructure generation backlogs are a significant part of that, at least in the Williston Basin. You need the pipelines to gather it, and the gas plant to send it to. The expansion in production has generated a shortfall in processing infrastructure.
800 years ago? Try 70 years ago.
Where is it written that the pardon must follow the indictment? As I recall, Gerry Ford didn't wait around for Milhous to get indicted.
What if Bush confessed to war crimes while still in office, documented everything, then pardoned himself on his last day as president?
From late October: Libya now pumps at least 800,000 barrels a day, four times more than five months ago, when Thinni's government managed to end a rebel blockade of oil ports in the east. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/23/us-libya-oil-idUSKCN0IC18520141023
Also impacting prices are the strength of the dollar.
And it is some falling demand, along with speculation of how far that demand might drop before world production falls.
It is not just one driving force. Saudi, along with other other contribute.
I read the production in that area is down to 20% of what it was before their presence. Wells are not magic machines. It does take some effort to maintain. At the same time, their sales appear to be at prices 25~50% of the market rate. Their buyers don't take the risk of dealing with them without their own benefit.
If the market prices fall, so are their prices as well, and to a far lower rate.
I do not believe all drilling would stop at that price. But it would push away the hedge funds and other "outside" money that was investing into shale fields.
For actual oil companies, they will have to decide how long they think prices will stay that low. And the ones that did not borrow too much money are better set to buy some fire-sale assets and keep drilling at a slower pace.
By “financing” I mean direct loans for the purpose of drilling.
I’d be surprised if many hedge funds are in that business, although I’m sure many do make loans in exchange for an equity position.
Bottom line - no financial institution is going to make loans on a product that the owner can’t sell for a profit.
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