Posted on 10/29/2014 3:24:21 PM PDT by LS
Apparently the Tillis campaign is now saying its internals show a tie. Normally I'd be disinclined to believe internals, but this would jibe with virtually every trend in the country now---NM, WI, IA, GA, and so on.
TURNOUT. I don’t see it for Hagan. I see slightly more for Tillis.
Who are we talking about here? A little help with info from outside your circle...
thanks
This is worrisome to me. The rule of thumb is any internals that are publicly-trumpeted are usually B.S. I remember one Senate race in 2010 where the Democrat kept stating his internals showed him two points ahead, and persisted with that line all the way until his double-digit loss on election day.
Why should internal polls be given more credit than regular polls? Are the methodologies more accurate? If so, then why don’t the big polling organizations adopt those methods?
Dole lost to Hagan as part of the Obama wave. If Hagan can beat Tillis in a year like this, NC may be lost to the GOP.
It’s a pretty good rule of thumb that when a campaign releases their internals in a general election, they are in trouble. Then again in this case, I see a Marist poll that shows a tie race as well - so maybe this is an exception to that rule.
The Tillis campaign may be releasing the internal as a get-out-the-vote mechanism—if you want to ensure that every Republican and conservative votes, saying that you’re tied is better than saying that you’re up by 1 or down by 1.
I have read that internal polls tend to be more accurate. Polls are expensive and campaigns need accurate information and campaigns spend much more money on polls than the media. Many campaigns have nightly polls. I’m sure all the competitive senate races have nightly polls on both sides.
Yeah, good point.
Apparently Dems are up in early voting in NC relative to 2010, but I wonder if that’s necessarily great news, since in 2010 the only statewide race was Senator Richard Burr’s re-election, and he trounced his Dem opponent by 13 points. With a Democrat incumbent in a hotly contested race, you’d expect that person to attract a stronger Dem turnout. It’d be huge news if the numbers *were* the same as 2010. Wouldn’t necessarily mean Hagan would win.
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