Posted on 10/28/2014 9:05:09 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The midterm elections will take place one week from today, and so far the arc of the sixth-year midterm has provided few surprises in national polling, including today’s from the Washington Post and ABC News. Driven by a strong sense of disgruntlement, a majority of likely voters want a Republican Congress to deal with an ineffectual President Barack Obama. Mainly, they want competence to return to the federal government:
Driving attitudes is a pervasive sense of a country in trouble. Overwhelming majorities say the country is badly off-track and give the economy negative ratings. Economic expectations are little better today than they were at this time four years ago.
Six in 10 say they cannot trust the government in Washington to do what is right — the same as a year ago in the aftermath of the government shutdown and the botched rollout of the federal Web site for the Affordable Care Act.
With multiple crises confronting the country — including the spread of Ebola in West Africa and cases here at home, as well as threats from Islamic State militants — a majority now says the government’s ability to deal with big problems has declined in the past few years. Among those who say this, more — by 3 to 1 — blame Obama and the Democrats rather than Republicans in Congress.
The sense of disgruntlement appears to be coloring public interest in the 2014 campaign, which has been marked by an unprecedented amount of money spent by candidates and, especially, outside groups. Voters in states with competitive Senate races have been barraged with negative ads that began running early this year and now clog local newscasts.
The Post notes that there is less interest in the midterms than there was in 2010, but that’s less true among Republican voters. Fifty percent of all likely voters now say they will vote for the Republican in their Congressional race, six points up on Democrats in a question they need to lead significantly just to perform evenly. Likely-voter independents break much harder for Republicans, 54/37, up significantly over the last two months. The gender gap has all but disappeared, too. Democrats lead among women, but only by five points (49/44, 50/45 among married women, and only 48/43 among unmarried women), which on generic ballot questions is practically a wash. Republicans have a seventeen-point lead among men (56/39). The lack of a big lead among unmarried women seems like a very clear sign that the “war on women” has backfired in this cycle; Democrats aren’t gaining among single women, but they’re alienating men by the truckload.
Many likely voters tend to agree with Barack Obama about his policies being on the ballot next Tuesday. Forty-seven percent of likely voters say Obama will be a factor in their choice, but Republicans lead on that question by a 2:1 ratio, 31/16. On either side, the passion rules the day; 27% say opposition to Obama will be a strong factor in their vote for the GOP, while 13% say their support for Obama will be a strong reason to vote Democratic. It was precisely this passion deficit Obama thought he could address with his remarks, and precisely why Democrats were angry he’d made them at all.
Put simply, Obama is toxic in this election cycle. Even among all adults — the most friendly sample possible — Obama’s job approval rating in this usually-friendly series is 43/51, with almost as many strongly disapproving (39%) as overall approving. Among likely voters, it’s 42/56, almost identical to his approval rating on the economy (42/55). Obama scores much worse among independents in both questions — 37/57 on overall job approval (43% strongly disapproving) and 35/59 on the economy.
For those keeping score, the sample on this poll was a D+8 overall, but only D+3 among likely voters, 33/30/31. That’s pretty close to 2010′s 35/35/30 in terms of relative position, so the LV results seem pretty solid. They point to a big Republican wave, and the only question will be whether that will make a difference in big Republican states where GOP-held seats in the Senate may be in danger, such as Kansas, Georgia, and Kentucky.
AQTTENTION ALL FREEPERS
THERE ARE *MILLIONS* OF FREEPERS AND LURKERS HERE EVERY MONTHS
THAT MEANS THAT JUST FREEPERS ALONE(!!!) CAN SWING EVERY ELECTION.
IF YOU DONT GET OUT AND VOTE YOU DESERVE WHAT COMES NEXT UNDER OBAMA REGIME.
AND GET YOUR WHOLE FAMILY OUT TO VOTE TOO
I think I’m all polled out. I just want to go vote.
Not one story on ABC News about the mid-term elections.
I personally want to see what the viewers of ABC News will do when they find out on November 5th that the country held an election the day before.
What a bunch of low-information drones, just the way the MSM likes to keep them.
I was looking at RCP earlier and saw one poll result from “Ivan Moore” that puts Begich ahead in Alaska by 6% after Sullivan has led consistently for weeks. Has anyone else noticed that as well? I’d never heard of an “Ivan Moore” polling group before.
The problem isn't just where he's ineffectual, it's where he's effectual as well. Does anyone actually subjected to it still think 0bamacare is a good idea?
I plan to put the clothespin on my nose Monday in preparation to vote for Tom Corbett on Tuesday morning.
Not that I think it will do much good.
I will be voting for Ed Gillespie Tuesday morning, though it’ll be in vain. Mark Warner isn’t under much of a threat.
Perhaps the MOST IMPORTANT election in America’s history is coming on November 4th! Like many of you, I’m not thrilled with the GOP choices before us. But until we somehow overcome the ignorance and apathy of so many millions around us who DO NOT THINK, it’s what we have. All those of us who DO THINK and REMEMBER the America we have allowed to slip into the abyss of tyranny had better SHOW UP and VOTE. It’s a numbers game and the donkey party will be up to their usual vote fraud/ballot box stuffing antics. If we’re to even start to turn this mess around, we’d better BE THERE IN RECORD NUMBERS on November 4th!!!
What a bunch of low-information drones, just the way the MSM likes to keep them.
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ABC and the other liberal networks manipulate and deceive their audiences with an endless stream of propaganda and selective “shaping” of the daily news. Guess their viewers don’t care if they’re treated like mindless pawns.
Recently departed Great-Grandma Fern's mail-in ballot is on my kitchen table. I am so tempted..
Is this the ‘go’ sign we can safely dump McConnell and Boehner?
My wife and I have already voted. Go Cory!
Still time for Beckel’s ‘October surprise’. (’
great! so what ELSE are you going to do?
no it isn’t~!
she mailed that before she left, if I recall
Early voted yesterday here in N. Tx. Polling place was quite busy for a mid morning Monday. Abortion Barbie will be but a rag doll put back in the box come next week.
At my workplace is an early voting poll center, it’s been far more crowded than the last four or so elections. Poll workers are having to make line laws to keep people in line from blocking the pharmacy and restrooms.
I think conservatives are beginning to understand the magnitude of vote fraud in 08 and 12... I don’t think Nate Silver’s model accounts for that. Speaking of which, isn’t he due to deliver another model run today?
ABSOLUTELY!!!
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