Posted on 10/11/2014 7:53:56 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2
Fortunately for the GOP, there are six races that lean toward Republicans: Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky and Louisiana. We’ll refer to these states as the “Maroon 6” (because maroon is somewhere between red and purple). In each Maroon 6 state, the Republican candidate has a 65 percent to 75 percent chance of winning, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
And you may have the Moron 12-plus if you look at the candidates for Senate in those six states.
He currently has Republicans at a 57.8% statistical chance of winning the Senate.
Race by race:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/
(click on the Elections tab)
I’ve heard that West Virginia and Montana are off the charts, in polling, so that these 2 states will flip from Dem. to the GOP.
Those two states change the Senate line up from 55-45 Dem to 53-47 Dem. Then, the GOP needs four more to get to 51.
Of course that assumes that the GOP holds all seats, including McConnell in Kentucky and Roberts in Kansas.
There are many races which seem too close to call. The Democrats have to hold a big majority of those seats to hold the Senate. It’s unrealistic to think they will hold all of them. On the other hand, unrealistic to think the GOP will run the table either.
I hope campaigns are taking Obama at his word, when he said his policies are on the ballot this fall, even though he himself is not up for election. The GOP should be using this in every campaign, that a vote for a Democrat is a vote for Obama’s policies.
We may not know on election night who controls the new Senate. Georgia and Louisiana could both have runoff elections afterwards, if nobody gets 50% plus 1, as those states require a runoff if that happens.
Would love to see the GOP with 51 solid seats before worrying about Louisiana and Georgia and McConnell in Kentucky and the Kansas situation. Stay tuned.
RCP has it as:
D - 46
R - 45
Tossups - 9
Tossups:
AK: Begich (D)
AR: Pryor (D)
CO: Udall (D)
GA: Open (R)
IA: Open (D)
KS: Roberts (R)
KY: McConnell (R)
LA: Landrieu (D)
NC: Hagan (D)
But it looks to me like there is a huge momentum shift to the Red because of the Ebola crisis.
The GOP getting 51 seats is no gain. They are cowards mostly and will accomplish little, if anything at all. They will simply cave and Obama will continue to rule his empire by executive order and the bums of the GOP will do absolutely nothing about it. They haven’t far, why should be believe they will now.
And I hope there is a huge momentum shift due to Obama personally wanting to nationalize these mid-terms.
Let’s take Obama at his word. His policies are on the ballot, even though he himself is not. A vote for a Democrat is a vote to enable Obama to do what he wants to do with impunity. A vote for a Democrat is a vote to allow Obama to keep doing what he’s been doing.
Well, if we elect cowards who are Republicans, you have a good point. Control of the Senate should imply that the GOP is going to do battle with Obama. If they don’t then none of this will make any difference.
While I hope the senate flips, not thrilled with the rinos... But the knothead in me would love to see a 50/50 split so the rinos get a taste of what the Dems do in that situation (hint: it won’t be the Trent Lott power sharing).
For all of the above scenarios, the action is going to be what unlawful executive orders President Ebola has in store.
The one thing I hope they keep when we get the Senate is the 50 votes for judicial picks. We need to put in conservatives to counter the hundreds of liberals that were put into judicial spots. That is going to hurt for generations. When the Senate changed the rules, we lost.
I think things will be a lot different if they are in the majority. Cruz and Lee will be the ideological heart and soul, not McConnell and Collins. With a House majority, we could make things happen, and set the stage for 2016.
Yep, if it turns out 50-50, then the Dems. stay in control since Joe Biden casts the deciding vote if the Senate is an even split. And no, the Dems. will not do any power sharing if this happens. Of course not.
I agree, that is the most disastrous residual of a Democrat majority - the judges.
Susan Collins....... She recently said that it’s too late to repeal Obamacare, that too much time has gone by or some such hog wash........
I hope the GOP ends up with a cushion of more than 51 votes, so we don’t have to depend on squishy incoherent Republicans such as Collins.
Agreed. 51-49 makes it too inviting for someone to get threatened/bribed and jump to the D side, if not explicitly then implicitly.
Excellent video worth 8 minutes of everyone’s time:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3KHKb2MQ24&feature=youtu.be
(Hat tip to ExTexasRedhead.)
Then again, if conservatives can be a strong enough presence in the US Senate, they might win over some dems such as Manich (sp) whose state’s issues have been decimated by Obama. And RINO backstabbers might have to behave better, knowing it’s the conservative message that’s resonating with voters.
Exactly. Moderate politicians, being what they are, will gravitate toward where the power and momentum are. They want to hang on to their empires, so they will go with the flow.
Some of those left wing judges were appointed by Republcans, too. The problem lies in the fact that left wingers control the law schools, left wing Statists, who believe that all rights emanate from the State. To be granted and taken away as the head of State sees fit.
This is what happened with John Roberts and his validation of Obamacare. Roberts is a Harvard Statist.
From now on, the question should be asked of every judicial nominee, Do you believe in the inherent rights of man and who determines what those rights are?
About the time the Republicans (including Rhinos) get a super majority of the Congress . . . expect Obola to declare martial law and perhaps disband the government.
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