European political scientist: Russia has enough leverage on EU countries

The teacher of Free university of Brussels Aude Merlen shared with DW a personal assessment of prospects of the relations of the European Union and Russia in the conditions of the Ukrainian crisis.

The position of the European Union concerning Russia is full of internal contradictions. About, whether already accepted EU of the sanction against the Russian economy is effective, whether it is necessary to wait for the fourth package of penal measures and why some EU countries belong to policy of the Kremlin quite loyally, the correspondent of DW has a talk from Aude Merlen who teaches political science at Free university of Brussels and, in particular, conducts researches on Russia.

DW: How the European Union is far ready to go to resist to intervention of Russia in affairs of Ukraine?

Aude Merlen: You never can tell. It seems to me, the European Union itself doesn't know the answer to this question. Now EU is split on many questions, it is possible even to tell that it is in a formation stage. On each new call the European Union tries to give the answer and thus learns itself. It is possible to tell that he creates itself(himself), overcoming crises.

Already it is now clear that the European Union isn't ready to be at war. But I think that he is ready to toughening of the position. For example, the French authorities reported that stop delivery of Russia of the first Mistral helicopter carrier.

- But after all sanctions enter both parties - both the West, and Russia. What of these measures, in your opinion, can appear the most effective: entering into black lists of EU and the countries "Big seven" of people from the immediate environment of the president Putin or the embargo entered by Russia on import of products from the West countries?

- As we see, black lists don't work. For example, the Chairman of the State Duma Sergey Naryshkin quietly meets in Paris the French parliamentarians, and they it welcome heat in spite of the fact that it appears in these black lists.

I would tell that the third step of the western sanctions which was initiated in July appeared the most effective. And though Russia in reply too undertook certain actions, after all I think that sectoral sanctions of the West anyway will affect the Russian reality. And this influence will affect not only soon, but also in more remote prospect. After all recession of economy of Russia is reflected in a standard of living of a certain part of the Russian society. Therefore I think that the western sanctions, especially their third step, more strongly.

- Whether you possible consider the fourth step of the western sanctions against Russia?

- I am not a prophet and not the fortuneteller. But I think that the fourth step of sanctions is very probable.

- How you estimate efficiency of the Russian promotion in the West?

- It seems to me that in the first months of the Ukrainian crisis - from November, 2013 to summer of this year - the Russian promotion quite strongly affected opinion of a number of people. It was visible according to publications in various western mass media when in series of different opinions experts who literally literally stated the pro-Kremlin point of view often came across and tried to extend this rhetoric in the western society.

But since summer, especially after death of Malaysian "Boeing" in the southeast of Ukraine and on the course of further development of war in this region, the Russian promotion became less effective. Though some moments show that the Kremlin promotion in the West nevertheless plays a part. And we can only guess, what back room deals are concluded during meetings of the Russian and western politicians.

- Why such countries how the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary which on own historical experience know, what such the Russian occupation, now act as lawyers of the Kremlin, speaking about an inefficiency of economic sanctions?

- It is very interesting question. He mentions very paradoxical situation and shows that it is impossible to use any settled ideological schemes. Of course, when in 2004 the EU was entered by a former communist block, there was a feeling that "new Europe" will treat Russia is more critical, than "old Europe" which for many decades reconciled to policy of the Soviet Union.

Now we can speak about realistic approach to economy and about dependence in the sphere of power. Because without it it is impossible to understand anything concerning a position of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. As for Hungary, here still a part is played by ideological and political aspects. The prime minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán for a long time lets know that to it the movement of its country on the way to democracy, pluralism and human rights is uninteresting. And that that way which is propagandized by ruling Russian political elite is much closer to it.

Knowledge of history, in particular that happened in 1956 with Hungary and in 1968 with Czechoslovakia, it isn't enough to understand a present situation with these countries. After all the Russian side has enough leverage to convince some states of the EU of the correctness. In particular, gas - one of such levers, besides that, for example, Slovakia very much depends on Russia regarding energy deliveries.

....”in the sphere of power (influence)”.....

In the past dozen years, the armed forces of NATO countries, whether operating under the NATO banner or in related ad-hoc coalitions, have killed many hundreds of thousands of people. Of those hundreds of thousands of people, only a few hundred at most ever had any connection to any attack on a NATO country.

Hillary Clinton Quote:

“We do not believe in the concept of “spheres of influence.”

Hilllary Clinton stated in response to reporter Question of Russia...(note year).... June 2010:

“....about the relationship with Russia.....We’re beyond the Cold War... We want to get beyond the notion that European diplomacy and security is a zero-sum game and that countries in Central Europe need to choose whether they’re going to be pro-Russian or pro-American.

Indeed, one of the things we’ve said about the relationship with Russia is that when we have a better and the United States has a better relationship with Russia, that is actually a benefit to countries in Central Europe because they don’t feel obliged to choose or orient one way or another. And it certainly applies to Ukraine.

http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2010/143769.htm

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